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Penguins vs. CanadiensFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCentre Bell
Penguins
4–5Final
Canadiens
Score by period
Team123T
PIT2114
MTL2305

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 6.5 goals 53¢

Why Second String Shootout likes it: Pinnacle 6.5 fair is 53.5%; one confirmed backup adds roughly 4.5 points.

Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-5 on this game · +25% return

  1. Montréal Canadiens to win3 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    3 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Morning Puck +1
    Why 3 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Confirmed goalie gap: Jacob Fowler .9427 save percentage versus Sergei Murashov .8803.
    • Montréal is 8-3-2 with a +5 goal differential; Pittsburgh is 5-6-2 with a -1 differential.
    • Montréal is without Nick Suzuki and Mike Matheson; Pittsburgh is without Bryan Rust and multiple defenders.
    Morning Puck
    • Current-season rates: Montréal 3.31 GF/game versus Pittsburgh 3.39 GA/game; Pittsburgh 3.31 GF versus Montréal 2.92 GA.
    • Jacob Fowler is confirmed and owns a .942 save percentage through seven starts; Sergei Murashov is confirmed at .883 through four.
    • Montreal is without Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov, and Mike Matheson; the lineup losses could erase the goalie advantage.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • MTL is 8-3-2 with 3.31 GF and 2.92 GA; PIT is 5-6-2 with 3.31 GF and 3.38 GA.
    • Jacob Fowler is confirmed at .942 save percentage and 1.54 GAA; Sergei Murashov is confirmed at .883 and 3.50.
    • Montréal is without Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson, and Ivan Demidov; that materially lowers offensive and transition quality.
  2. Game total over 6.5 goals
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.5 fair is 53.5%; one confirmed backup adds roughly 4.5 points.
    • Montreal generates 60.46 shot attempts per game, 10th of 32; blend with Pittsburgh's 57.46 allowed.
    • Pinnacle moved from -115 to -122; its roughly 1.9-point fair move is below half the goalie adjustment.
    • Pittsburgh's confirmed backup Murashov has an 0.883 season save percentage, but Montreal's Fowler is strong at .942.
  3. Over 6.5 total goals
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Backup BurstUp 91% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6.9-goal projection, 0.4 above the 6.5 line after shrinking early-season rates toward 2025-26.
    • Montréal generated 60.5 shot attempts per game over 13 current regular-season games, versus 56.5 last season; top-quintile gate clears.
    • Sergei Murashov is confirmed for Pittsburgh: four current starts, .883 save percentage, behind Arturs Silovs’ nine starts.
    • Fowler is a confirmed high-quality starter and can suppress Pittsburgh’s finishing.
  4. Pittsburgh Penguins to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Last LookDown 104% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • No US sportsbook beats the exchange price: Pittsburgh is +102 at FanDuel and +105 at DraftKings.
    • Both starters are confirmed: Sergei Murashov at 9:20am and Jacob Fowler at 7:50am PDT.
    • Montreal is still the sharp-market favorite; Pittsburgh loses this game roughly half the time.
  5. Zack Bolduc over 1.5 shots on goal
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21 shots in 13 games: 1.62 per game; 17 in his last 10, with 5 overs of 1.5.
    • Expected PP1 assignment with Caufield, Slafkovsky, Dach and Hutson after Suzuki and Demidov absences.
    • PP workload rose from 103.8 seconds per game season-long to 258 seconds last game; PP shots rate is 10.67 per 60.
    • PP1 deployment is expected, not confirmed; recent opportunity may already be partly absorbed by the market.
  6. Jacob Fowler over 23.5 goalie saves
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    NHL Player Prop EdgeUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fowler is confirmed to start; his last four starts produced 46, 33, 20, and 23 saves.
    • Pittsburgh averages 28.08 shots per game through 13 contests.
    • His seven starts average 25.9 saves, above the 23.5 threshold.
    • Save totals fall when Pittsburgh converts early chances into goals.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Rickard Rakell over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    NHL Player Prop EdgeUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.7 SOG/game across his last 10; six games reached 3+.
    • 18:31, 21:44 TOI in that span, with expected first-line and PP1 deployment.
    • Montréal allows 27.54 shots per game, 18th-highest among 32 teams.
    • Skater deployment is expected from the latest combination report, not a confirmed shift chart.
  2. Pittsburgh Penguins puck line +2.5Favorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model anchored to Montréal 53.3% sharp moneyline and 6.5-goal total: Montréal win by 3+ projects 14.0%, making Pittsburgh +2.5 fair near 86.0%.
    • Pittsburgh +1.5 was also priced at 68¢ versus roughly 75.2% fair, but +2.5 offers the larger projection-versus-price gap.
    • Confirmed starters are Jacob Fowler for Montréal and Sergei Murashov for Pittsburgh; the goalie matchup supports Montréal as favorite without making a three-goal margin the base case.
    • Murashov's .883 season save percentage over four starts creates real blowout risk if Pittsburgh's defense breaks down.
  3. Pittsburgh Penguins spread +1.5Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at −230 on DraftKings

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 71% independent cover estimate; fair price approximately -245 versus DraftKings -230.
    • Confirmed Montreal injuries include Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson, and Ivan Demidov, reducing home-side margin potential.
    • Confirmed starters: Pittsburgh's Sergei Murashov and Montreal's Jacob Fowler; Fowler's last three starts produced save percentages of .952, .971, and 1.000.
    • Murashov's most recent start was a .737 save-percentage loss, creating goaltending volatility.
  4. Cole Caufield under 0.5 points
    +180%Won

    Taken at +180 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13-game exact-stat sample: 7 unders, 6 overs (53.8% under).
    • Last 10 are exactly 5 unders and 5 overs, versus the market's roughly 64% over expectation.
    • Caufield is confirmed active; projected top forward line and first power-play unit preserve a stable role.
    • Small 13-game sample makes the 53.8% estimate noisy and vulnerable to one multi-point game.
  5. Evgeni Malkin over 0.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Malkin recorded a point in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 0.8 points.
    • His 4/5 recent hit rate is 60% above the 0.5 PrizePicks line.
    • Malkin produced 3 points in the teams' October 3 meeting.
    • Montréal's confirmed starter Jacob Fowler has allowed only 2 goals across his last two starts.
  6. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starters were confirmed: Sergei Murashov and Jacob Fowler, reducing participation uncertainty.
    • Pinnacle is a same-line market reference, not an independently supplied forecast; the edge is only a cross-venue price gap.
  7. PIT vs MTL under 6.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Suzuki: 1,307 sec/GP (21:47; 36.3% of regulation clock), 12 points in nine games; official preview says out.
    • Demidov: 937 sec/GP (15:37), two points in two games; Matheson: 1,425 sec/GP (23:45), both confirmed out.
    • Rust is also out for Pittsburgh (1,042 sec/GP); net lineup adjustment lowers my total expectation by 0.45 goals.
    • The market already repriced 5.5 percentage points, so part of the lineup edge is gone.

Questions

Who won Penguins vs. Canadiens?

The Canadiens won 5–4 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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