Lightning vs. Golden KnightsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalT-Mobile Arena

Lightning

6–2Final

Golden Knights

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
TB	2	3	1	6
VGK	2	0	0	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tampa Bay Lightning +2.5 81¢

Why Fair Dog likes it: About 85% fitted cover probability: Vegas win-by-3+ is roughly 15% from a 6.0-goal sharp-total, near-pick'em margin distribution.

Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 3-4 on this game · −3% return

3-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +53900
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Barcelona: warehouse model makes the away win 65.9% versus ProphetX's 51.46c; Barcelona is 10-0 with 3.395 opponent-adjusted xG for.
- Barcelona's starting XI was unconfirmed; the model features are through October 17, and PSG has home field.
Vegas Golden Knights puck line −1.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US
Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Recent scoring margin: Vegas +2.0 per game over five versus Tampa +0.6, a 1.4-goal form gap.
- That clears the brief's 1.2-goal strongest-side screen; the 2+ win base rate is about 43%.
- The ladder's next favorite rungs are 20¢ at -2.5 and 9¢ at -3.5, coherent with a discounted but underpriced -1.5 rung.
- Vegas is only a slight moneyline underdog at 50¢ versus Tampa at 51¢, contradicting the recent-form signal.
Vegas Golden Knights wins by over 1.5 goalsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Margin MathDown 105% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Vegas' last-10 goal differential is +1.8 per game versus Tampa Bay's +0.5, a 1.3-goal gap.
- Measured win-by-2+ rate for favorites with a gap of at least 1.2 is 42.7%; hard early-season shrink still projects about 40%.
- Carter Hart is listed as Vegas' confirmed starter, so the favorite is not using a backup.
- The season is only days old; the 1.3-goal gap is a small-sample input and is heavily shrunk toward prior-season uncertainty.
Tampa Bay Lightning +2.5Favorite
+23%Won
Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- About 85% fitted cover probability: Vegas win-by-3+ is roughly 15% from a 6.0-goal sharp-total, near-pick'em margin distribution.
- The sharp moneyline is essentially even, so this is not a strongest-side matchup receiving a large margin boost.
- A Vegas win by exactly three or more loses; empty-net scoring can enlarge a narrow favorite margin.
Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5Favorite
+38%Won
Taken at −265 on FanDuel
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Independent cash probability 77%; fair price approximately -335 versus FanDuel -260.
- Tampa owns a 56.5% five-on-five Corsi rate and allows 22.9 shots per game; Vegas is at 52.7% and allows 25.3.
- Both starting goalies confirmed: Andrei Vasilevskiy and Carter Hart; Tampa's shot-suppression profile supports a one-goal-or-better result.
- Vegas leads the matchup in scoring at 4.2 goals per game and power play at 27.8%; a special-teams swing can create margin.
TBL vs VGK first-period total over 2.5Long shot
+317%Won
Taken at 24¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Team first-period rates imply about 1.99 goals: TBL 1.125 GF/.750 GA and VGK 1.11 GF/1.00 GA.
- Nested check is coherent: 1.99 first-period mean plus 2.06, 2.14 and 0.2 gives 6.39 total goals near the 6.5 game market.
- The first-period ladder is monotone and both sides are quoted at 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5.
- The period-rate sample is early-season and only 8 Tampa and 9 Vegas games.

Show all 7 picks

Game total under 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model total is approximately 6.2 goals after shrinking early-season team rates toward the 3.10 league scoring average.
- Pinnacle’s sharp reference is 6.0, only 0.2 goals below the model projection and within the brief’s 0.3-goal gate.
- Carter Hart is confirmed and Andrei Vasilevskiy is listed likely; neither team is on a back-to-back, and the 54¢ exchange price is cheaper than the best US-book under price.
- Vasilevskiy remains only likely, not confirmed; a goalie change would materially alter the projection.

Questions

Who won Lightning vs. Golden Knights?

The Lightning won 6–2 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.