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Sharks vs. BruinsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTD Garden
Sharks
4–6Final
Bruins
Score by period
Team123T
SJ1124
BOS1146

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 5.5 61¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Confirmed starters: Jeremy Swayman (.928 save percentage) and Alex Nedeljkovic (.917) are incorporated in the sharp market reference.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-5 on this game · +28% return

  1. Boston Bruins to win5 models agree
    +55%Won

    Taken at −182 on FanDuel

    5 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Brewing NHL Ml 2.0 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Own estimate 66% versus 63.1% devigged Pinnacle anchor; Boston's edge is about 3 points.
    • Boston leads season baseline 3.82, 2.00 goals per game versus San Jose's 3.00, 3.36.
    • The 2026-27 sample is only 11 games, so raw scoring and possession rates are noisy.
    Brewing NHL Ml 2.0
    • Confirmed starters: Jeremy Swayman (.928 current, .908 prior season) over Alex Nedeljkovic (.917 current, .896 prior).
    • Boston's early 5-on-5 SAT share is .470 versus San Jose's .465, with better shot suppression: 28.3 versus 30.0 against per game.
    • Pinnacle moved slightly against Boston, from -189 opening to -185, while several other markets strengthened the Bruins; the disagreement is a warning.
    Cohort Check
    • Independent rate-and-goalie estimate: Boston win probability about 68%, versus 63.1% sharp-book devig.
    • Boston: 3.818 goals per game, 2.000 allowed; San Jose: 3.000 scored, 3.364 allowed through 11 games.
    • Both team-rate samples cover only 11 games, so the estimated 68% is model-sensitive and could overrate Boston's hot start.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Boston is 8-2-1 with 3.82 goals per game and 2.00 allowed; San Jose is 6-4-1 at 3.00/3.36.
    • Confirmed goaltending favors Boston: Jeremy Swayman over Alex Nedeljkovic; both team lineups are confirmed.
    • San Jose owns the stronger power play, 25.7% versus Boston's 22.6%, creating special-teams upset risk.
  2. Boston Bruins −1.52 models agree
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSpare Crease Spread, Gap Favorite
    Why 2 models like it
    Spare Crease Spread
    • 49% projected cover probability from a Poisson goal-difference distribution: Boston 3.96 goals, San Jose 2.50.
    • Confirmed backup usage: Alex Nedeljkovic has 3 starts versus Yaroslav Askarov's 7; backup adjustment adds 0.3 Boston goals.
    • Nedeljkovic is confirmed but has a 0.917 save percentage this season; a strong backup outing erases the adjustment.
    Gap Favorite
    • trailing-25 goal-differential gap is 1.68 (Boston +1.28/game, San Jose -0.40), above the 1.2 gate.
    • Boston is not on a back-to-back; Alex Nedeljkovic is confirmed for San Jose at the latest re-check.
    • A one-goal Boston win, overtime loss, or San Jose outright win all lose the -1.5 ticket.
  3. Game total over 5.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Jeremy Swayman (.928 save percentage) and Alex Nedeljkovic (.917) are incorporated in the sharp market reference.
    • NHL goal margins are discrete; a 5-goal game loses despite the model's positive gap.
  4. San Jose Sharks +2.5Favorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

    Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston's +2.18 trailing goal-differential gap clears the ≥1.2 strong-favourite bucket.
    • Historical regular-season bucket sample: +2.5 dogs covered 197 of 259 games (76.1%); fair price is about -317.
    • ProphetX offers San Jose +2.5 at -250, or 71.4% implied, roughly 4.7 points below the bucket fair rate.
    • The current 11-game form sample is early; shrinking toward 2025 rates makes the 2.18 gap uncertain.
  5. Over 7.5 total goalsLong shot
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on Novig

    Whistle CountDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 6.5 total is -104/-108, a 49.5% de-vigged over reference; adding the required 0.12-goal tilt gives approximately 34.4% for 8+ goals.
    • Assigned referees Pierre Lambert (6.50 PP opportunities/game) and Beau Halkidis (5.625) average 6.06, above the 5.9 crew gate.
    • League penalty minutes are 9.869 per team-game; both teams project about 3.273 power-play chances, clearing the stack gate.
    • The fair conversion treats Pinnacle's 6.5 total as the scoring mean and uses a Poisson tail; no direct Pinnacle 7.5 alternate was posted.
  6. Collin Graf over 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alexander Wennberg and Igor Chernyshov are out; Graf is projected onto San Jose's first line with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
    • Graf's latest TOI was 19:32 versus a 15:09 season average, exceeding the brief's three-minute opportunity-change marker.
    • He has produced 3, 3 and 2 shots in his last three games; his 2026 individual-shots rate is 6.38 per 60 versus 5.84 last season.
    • The Graf promotion is an expected Daily Faceoff deployment, not an official shift confirmation; lines can change after warmups.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Goal in first 10 minutes NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Jeremy Swayman (.928 save percentage) and Alex Nedeljkovic (.917) form a strong, suppressive goalie pairing.
    • Recent 20-game shot sample: Boston 25.7 SOG/game and San Jose 28.3; average shot distances were 31.7 and 34.5 feet.
    • The team sample is only 11 games, while Nedeljkovic has four starts and Swayman eight.
  2. Boston Bruins two-way to win
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston is 8-2-1 with 3.818 GF/game and 2.000 GA/game; Swayman and Nedeljkovic are both confirmed.
    • The 22% past-regulation rate is a league-shrunk estimate; early-season matchup-specific overtime data are limited.
  3. Jeremy Swayman over 23.5 saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25.75 saves per start across 8 confirmed 2026 starts; 5 of 8 cleared 23.5.
    • San Jose averages 28.3 shots per game; Boston allows 27.9 this season.
    • Swayman cleared in 2 of his last 3 starts, including 25 and 35 saves.
    • Boston allowed only 24.2 shots per game over its last five, below its season rate.
  4. San Jose Sharks–Boston Bruins first-period total under 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • First-period matchup rate is about 1.59 goals: Boston 12-7 and San Jose 7-9 through 11 games.
    • Full-game scoring rates imply about 6.09 goals, consistent with the posted 6.5 game-total ladder used for nesting.
    • The first-period ladder is monotone through 2.5, and the 1.5 rung has both sides quoted with a narrow spread.
    • An early goal followed by a second quickly defeats the ticket; hockey first-period variance is high.
  5. Darnell Nurse over 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20 shots over his last 10 games: 2.0 per game, 33% above the 1.5 line.
    • Cleared 1.5 shots in 6 of those 10 games, including 5-shot outings on Oct. 10 and Oct. 17.
    • Nurse is active and projected on San Jose's top defensive pair, supporting heavy 5-on-5 opportunity.
    • Nurse had zero shots in each of his last two games, so the recent distribution is volatile.

Questions

Who won Sharks vs. Bruins?

The Bruins won 6–4 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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