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Rangers vs. SenatorsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCanadian Tire Centre
Rangers
4–7Final
Senators
Score by period
Team123T
NYR0314
OTT2237

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 5.5 57¢

Why Second String Shootout likes it: Both starters are confirmed backups: Dylan Garand and Jonas Johansson; Shesterkin, Korpisalo, and Ullmark are out.

Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-7 on this game · −18% return

  1. New York Rangers to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsBackup Tax, Cohort Check +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Backup Tax
    • Johansson was confirmed at 8:15 AM PDT for his Senators debut, Ottawa’s third starting goalie in three games; Ullmark is out.
    • Garand was confirmed at 8:37 AM PDT and has been New York’s current starter: 7 starts, 4-2-1, .915 save percentage.
    • Johansson has 100 career starts and reportedly played well in Belleville; the backup downgrade could be overstated.
    Cohort Check
    • Own goal-rate and confirmed-goaltender model makes Rangers 52%, versus 46.6% sharp-book devig.
    • Rangers own the stronger early-season profile: 3.083 GF/game, 2.417 GA/game; Ottawa is 2.818/2.727.
    • Johansson's current Ottawa sample is effectively unestablished in the warehouse; his prior-season .884 save rate may not represent tonight.
    Morning Puck
    • Poisson model after first-month league-average shrink makes New York 52.5% to win; 48¢ implies 48%.
    • Current Rangers scoring: 3.083 goals/game; Ottawa: 2.818, with New York’s 91.7% penalty kill versus Ottawa’s 78.1%.
    • Pinnacle’s devigged moneyline makes Ottawa about a 53.4% favorite, directly opposing the model.
  2. Game total over 5.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starters are confirmed backups: Dylan Garand and Jonas Johansson; Shesterkin, Korpisalo, and Ullmark are out.
    • Ottawa's blended expected attempts are 59.8 (58.0 recent attempts plus 61.6 Rangers allowed), approximately eighth of 32 teams.
    • This is a projection, not a full scoring model; the early-season sample is only 11-12 games per team.
  3. New York Rangers first-period spread +0.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    Square FrameUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rangers +0.5 costs 66¢ while Rangers -0.5 costs 39¢, implying a 27% tie mass.
    • The 27% implied tie rate is 7.1 points below the 34.1% first-period baseline.
    • First-period total prices are monotone; 0.5-goal under is 13%, below and consistent with the tie baseline.
    • The Ottawa-side pair implies a materially different tie rate, about 40%, so the ladder is internally noisy.
  4. Pavel Dorofeyev over 2.5 shots on goal
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 37 shots in 12 games (3.08 per game); he cleared 2.5 in 6 of his last 12.
    • Expected 1st power-play unit on 10/24; 11 current-season power-play shots and 17.29 PP shots/60.
    • Sykora and Tolvanen are out; the dated lineup assigns Dorofeyev to PP1, the specific responsibility this bet needs.
    • Forward and PP deployment remains expected rather than confirmed; the current PP1 assignment may be continuation, not an injury-created promotion.
  5. New York Rangers +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −238 on DraftKings

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 74% independent cover estimate versus 70.4% implied at -238; fair price about -285.
    • Confirmed goalie edge is not one-sided: NYR's Dylan Garand and Ottawa's Jonas Johansson are both backups, but the matchup supports avoiding a two-goal Ottawa win.
    • NYR are 7-4-1 with 3.08 goals for and 2.42 against per game; Ottawa are 7-4-0 at 2.82 and 2.73.
    • Garand allowed 5 goals on 35 shots in his latest start, and Ottawa is at home.
  6. J.T. Miller under 1.5 shots on goal
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12-game season sample: 8 stayed under 1.5 shots; season average is 1.25 SOG
    • Last five: 5/5 under 1.5, averaging 1.0 shot with 17:01, 21:33 TOI
    • Confirmed participant with no current injury designation; current DraftKings price is -105
    • New York averages 3.08 goals per game, so game script could increase offensive pressure
Show all 10 picks
  1. New York Rangers–Ottawa Senators first-period total under 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nested estimate is about 1.57 first-period goals after a 5.52-goal team-rate projection.
    • Starting goalies are confirmed: Dylan Garand and Jonas Johansson.
    • Johansson has no meaningful current save sample, and Ottawa is without Linus Ullmark.
  2. Ottawa Senators under 3.5 team goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ottawa averages 2.64 goals through 11 games; New York allows 2.42 through 12.
    • Ottawa stayed under 3.5 goals in 7 of its last 10; its power play is only 12.2%.
    • Confirmed Dylan Garand owns a .915 save rate and 2.30 GAA; research quality 78/100.
    • Early-season samples are small; Ottawa scored 4+ in 3 of its last 10.
  3. Adam Fox over 0.5 assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14 assists in 12 games; he has recorded an assist in 8 of his last 10.
    • Recent hit rate is 80%, versus roughly 57.8% implied by the PrizePicks -137 price.
    • Fox is confirmed on New York's top defensive pair; Ottawa's 78% penalty kill ranks 19th.
    • Assists are highly event-dependent; an 8-of-10 sample can regress quickly.
  4. Game total over 6.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starters are confirmed backups: Dylan Garand and Jonas Johansson; Shesterkin, Korpisalo, and Ullmark are out.
    • The 6.5 position only clears the brief's minimum 4-point candidate threshold by a modest amount.

Questions

Who won Rangers vs. Senators?

The Senators won 7–4 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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