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Golden Knights vs. Blue JacketsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNationwide Arena
Golden Knights
1–2Final
Blue Jackets
Score by period
Team1234T
VGK10001
CBJ10012

Top model pick, graded

Won

Columbus Blue Jackets +2.5 78¢

Why Fair Dog likes it: Model projects Vegas win by 2+ at 31% and by 3+ at 18%, so Columbus +2.5 covers about 82%.

Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-8 on this game · −63% return

  1. Vegas Golden Knights to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsFade the Goalie, Regulation Gap +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Fade the Goalie
    • Cam Talbot is confirmed and has functioned as Columbus's backup, with 3 starts versus Jet Greaves's 5.
    • Talbot owns an early .867 save percentage and 25.6 shots-against/60; the sample includes 79 shots in three starts.
    • Vegas's Carter Hart is expected rather than confirmed, and Adin Hill could start instead.
    Regulation Gap
    • Vegas regulation +101 implies 49.8%; the venue draw +285 implies 26.0%; two-way -123 implies 55.2%.
    • Vegas form does not contradict the side: 8-4 record, 3.83 goals per game, and 52.8% 5v5 Corsi versus Columbus at 3-5, 2.50 and 48.8%.
    • Carter Hart is expected, not confirmed; a late goalie change could materially alter the two-way probability.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Vegas leads season form: 8-4, 3.83 goals/game, 30.1 shots/game, 25.0% power play.
    • Columbus is 3-5 with 2.50 goals/game, 3.63 against/game, and an 8.7% power play.
    • Vegas is missing Mitch Marner, and Hart remains expected rather than confirmed; either status change materially lowers the estimate.
    The Stanley Cup
    • Vegas is 8-4 with 3.83 GF and 3.00 GA per game; Columbus is 3-5 with 2.50 GF and 3.63 GA.
    • Carter Hart is the expected VGK starter (.888 save percentage, 57.1% quality starts) against confirmed Cam Talbot (.867, 66.7%).
    • Hart remains expected rather than officially confirmed, and Vegas's projected lineup is not fully confirmed.
  2. Vegas Golden Knights −1.5Long shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsForm Gap, Margin Math
    Why 2 models like it
    Form Gap
    • Trailing-25 goal-difference rate: Vegas +0.80/game versus Columbus -0.48; the +1.28 gap clears the 1.2 gate.
    • Best captured US sportsbook price is Vegas -1.5 at +185 (about 35.1% implied), less favorable than the 0.34 contract.
    • Vegas has lost its last two by four goals each; recent form can reverse quickly and the 25-game gap is not a game-specific guarantee.
    Margin Math
    • Vegas leads the current goal-difference gap by about 1.96 goals per game.
    • Both spread ladders are monotone; the Vegas 2+ rung has meaningful depth unlike the wider rung.
    • Early-season samples are small: Vegas has 12 games and Columbus eight.
  3. Columbus Blue Jackets +2.5Favorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects Vegas win by 2+ at 31% and by 3+ at 18%, so Columbus +2.5 covers about 82%.
    • The 78¢ contract is roughly 4 percentage points below the model fair cover probability.
    • Sharp market anchors Vegas only around a 55% full-game favorite with a 6.0 total; this is not a strongest-side matchup.
    • Carter Hart is still listed as likely/expected rather than confirmed; a goalie change could materially alter the margin distribution.
  4. Vegas Golden Knights–Columbus Blue Jackets over 0.5 first-period goalsFavorite
    +22%Won

    Taken at 82¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current period rates produce a 2.00-goal first-period mean: VGK offense/CBJ defense 0.90 plus CBJ offense/VGK defense 1.10.
    • The clean first-period ladder is monotone: over 0.5 at 82¢, over 1.5 at 58¢, and over 2.5 at 25¢.
    • VGK have scored 14 first-period goals in 12 games; CBJ have scored 9 in 8, supporting the elevated early scoring rate.
    • The period sample is small: only 12 VGK and 8 CBJ games this season.
  5. Zach Werenski under 3.5 shots on goal
    +61%Won

    Taken at −165 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season distribution: 7 of 8 games under 3.5 SOG; average 3.13.
    • Season shot rate fell to 5.04 individual shots per 60 from 7.30 last season.
    • Vegas allows 25.4 shots per game; Werenski remains confirmed in the CBJ lineup and on PP1/D1.
    • Last season was only 40 of 75 under 3.5 (53.3%), so the multi-season baseline is less favorable.
  6. Mark Stone over 0.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 assists in 10 games (0.70 per game) is 40% above the 0.5 threshold.
    • Official NHL preview projects Stone on Vegas's top line with Ivan Barbashev and Jack Eichel.
    • Columbus is 1-4 over its last five with a -2.0 average margin, supporting a favorable Vegas offensive environment.
    • Vegas's skater lineup is projected rather than fully confirmed; a late scratch or role change removes the edge.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Carter Hart over 23.5 total saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Hart's .8876 raw save percentage is cold versus .905, making regression an over confirmation; completeGamePct is 1.00 with no pull haircut.
    • The 0.56-save model margin is small, so normal shot-count variance dominates.

Questions

Who won Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets?

The Blue Jackets won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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