Lightning vs. MammothFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDelta Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| UTAH | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Top model pick, graded
WonKarel Vejmelka over 22.5 total saves −130
Why Crease Workload likes it: Cold raw save percentage supports regression toward more saves; completeGamePct .875 means no pull haircut.
Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-0 on this game · +90% return
- Karel Vejmelka over 22.5 total saves+77%Won
Taken at −130 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cold raw save percentage supports regression toward more saves; completeGamePct .875 means no pull haircut.
- Utah can control possession and hold Tampa below its prior shot-for rate.
- Tampa Bay Lightning over 1.5 puck-line+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tampa's current goal differential is +0.50 per game versus Utah's +0.45; the favorite-strength gap is negligible.
- Tampa has lost by 2+ in 3 of 10 games this season; Utah has won by 2+ in 5 of 11.
- Tampa is on a back-to-back after a 6-3 loss, while Utah has two days of rest.
- Tampa Bay Lightning over 3.5 team goals+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Whistle CrewDown 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.3 referee power-play opportunities per game over Gord Dwyer’s last 40 assignments; Ben Betker’s current listed rate is 7.3.
- Utah is penalty-prone: 10.64 PIM and 3.273 times shorthanded per game, with a 66.7% penalty kill.
- Tampa Bay scores 3.4 goals per game; Utah allows 3.273, producing a roughly 3.34 baseline before a credible 0.1, 0.2 crew bump.
- Betker has only three completed warehouse assignments in the last-40 sample; the crew signal is partly thin.
- Charle-Edouard D'Astous over 0.5 points+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
role repricingDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hedman is day-to-day and logged 0:00 of power-play time last game; D'Astous is projected onto Tampa's first power-play unit.
- D'Astous jumped from 1:34 average PP time across his first seven games to 8:20 last game, with 2 points and 1 PP point.
- His current rates are 1.632 5v5 points/60 and 5.521 PP points/60; PP1 linemates are Kucherov, Point, Hagel and Guentzel.
- Tampa's PP1 assignment is expected, not confirmed; Hedman's status could change before puck drop and remove the promotion.
- Tampa Bay Lightning vs Utah Mammoth over 0.5 first-period goals+19%Won
Taken at 84¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup rates imply roughly 6.65 total goals: TBL 3.4 GF/2.9 GA, UTA 3.727 GF/3.273 GA.
- Nesting that total with 2.06 and 2.14 later-period means plus 0.2 gives first-period mean about 2.1, 2.25.
- Both projected goalies are unconfirmed; Hildeby is specifically listed as unconfirmed and Vejmelka as likely.
Questions
Who won Lightning vs. Mammoth?
The Mammoth won 5–4 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.