Wild vs. KrakenFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalClimate Pledge Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonJoey Daccord over 26.5 total saves −105
Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-4 on this game · +0% return
- Joey Daccord over 26.5 total saves+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - Game total over 60%Push
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 50/50 current and 2025-26 scoring-rate shrink gives 6.12 goals before the empty-net adjustment.
- Adding the brief’s 0.34-goal empty-net adjustment produces a 6.46 projected total, 0.46 above 6.
- Minnesota is a -175 favourite; 6 of its 11 current games and 6 of Seattle’s 11 finished within a two-goal margin.
- Seattle starter Joey Daccord is expected, not confirmed; late goalie news could materially change the projection.
- Seattle Kraken +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Minnesota is a -172 to -175 sharp-book favorite, but the 6-goal total limits large-margin paths.
- Season rates: Minnesota 2.91 GF/2.46 GA; Seattle 4.00 GF/3.36 GA across 11 games.
- Wallstedt is confirmed at .915; Daccord is only expected and has an .882 save percentage.
- Seattle is missing Jared McCann and Ryan Lindgren; Minnesota is without Brock Faber and both Folignos.
- Minnesota Wild to win+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MIN allows 2.455 goals/game versus Seattle's 3.364; Wallstedt is confirmed at .9147 SV% versus expected Daccord at .8816.
- Seattle is 7-3-1 with 4.000 goals per game, while Minnesota is 6-3-2; home form points the other way.
- Seattle Kraken to win−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Brock Faber was confirmed out; he averaged 25:17 per game in 2025, 42.1% of regulation ice time.
- My usage translation is approximately +0.30 Seattle goals; Polymarket moved Kraken probability 39.5% to 36.5% after confirmation.
- Seattle's +154 sportsbook price implies a materially higher binary cost than Polymarket's 37¢.
- Pinnacle also moved sharply after confirmation, so much of Faber's impact may already be priced.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season goal rates total 6.909; adding the desk’s 0.2 empty-net correction gives a 7.109-goal mean.
- Poisson with small positive team-goal correlation projects roughly 58% for 7+ goals.
- Seattle goalie Joey Daccord is expected rather than confirmed; a late change could materially alter scoring.
Show all 11 picks
- Game total over 5.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season goal rates total 6.909; adding the desk’s 0.2 empty-net correction gives a 7.109-goal mean.
- Poisson with small positive team-goal correlation projects roughly 72% for 6+ goals.
- Minnesota is a -172 favorite while the sharp reference total is 6.0, fitting a close-game empty-net profile.
- Seattle goalie Joey Daccord is expected rather than confirmed; a late change could materially alter scoring.
- Matt Boldy over 3.5 shots on goal+76%Won
Taken at −132 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.6 shots per game over his last 10; 5.0 over his last 5.
- Boldy cleared 3.5 shots in 7 of 10 recent games and 4 of his last 5.
- Confirmed Minnesota lineup and sportsbook participant feed establish Boldy's participation.
- Early-season 10-game sample is small; three recent games missed the line.
- First-period total over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model first-period mean is about 2.3 goals: current MIN/SEA first-period scoring and allowing rates imply roughly 1.1 MIN goals plus 1.2 SEA goals.
- The first-period rate sample is only 11 games per team and may regress sharply toward the 1.76-goal league baseline.
- Minnesota Wild spread +1.5+25%Won
Taken at 80¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Wild's confirmed starter Jesper Wallstedt: .9147 save percentage, 2.19 GAA, 70% quality starts.
- Minnesota owns a 53.5% average 5v5 Corsi share over 11 games; Seattle is at 42.0%.
- Shot-share gap supports the protection: Minnesota averages 30.4 shots for and 25.6 against; Seattle 26.2 for and 31.5 against.
- Seattle's expected Joey Daccord is not confirmed; his current .8816 save percentage makes the matchup attractive, but a goalie change could materially alter the estimate.
- Jared Spurgeon over 1.5 blocked shots+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.00 blocked shots per game this season (14 in 7), 33% above the 1.5 line.
- Cleared 1.5 in 4 of 7 regular-season games, including 5, 3, 2 and 3 blocks.
- Seattle averages 3.82 goals per game; Minnesota is also without Brock Faber, increasing Spurgeon's defensive workload.
- The current hit rate is only 4 of 7, nearly identical to the roughly 58% price-implied threshold.
Questions
Who won Wild vs. Kraken?
The Wild won 5–1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.