Maple Leafs vs. OilersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRogers Place

Maple Leafs

7–2Final

Oilers

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	2	4	7
EDM	0	1	1	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Morgan Rielly under 1.5 shots on goal −145

Why THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM likes it: 12-game season sample: Rielly stayed under 1.5 SOG in all 12; 10-game average is 1.5.

THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 8% this season · 173 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-6 on this game · −18% return

Edmonton Oilers to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, Regulation Gap
Why 2 models like it
Cohort Check
- Own goal-rate/goalie blend: Edmonton 60.0% versus Pinnacle's 57.6% devigged price, a 2.4-point independent edge.
- Edmonton is scoring 4.70 goals per game with a +1.50 goal differential; Toronto is at 3.58 and +0.33.
- The independent edge is only 2.4 points over the sharp-book anchor, so variance can dominate.
Regulation Gap
- two-way Edmonton implies 61.5%; 60-minute Edmonton implies 55.2%.
- ProphetX's 60-minute tie quote implies 23.3%; using the 22.0% shrunk regulation baseline gives 66.2% reconciled Edmonton probability.
- Toronto's goalie is only expected, not confirmed; a late change could materially alter the reconciliation.
Morgan Rielly under 1.5 shots on goalHigh conviction
+69%Won
Taken at −145 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 12-game season sample: Rielly stayed under 1.5 SOG in all 12; 10-game average is 1.5.
- His season average is 1.42 SOG on 19.8 average minutes, with a confirmed lineup.
- DraftKings offers +145 on the over but -145 on this under; the under price remains positive against the empirical distribution.
- The 12-game under streak is a small, potentially noisy sample; one extra point shot loses the ticket.
Game over 5.5 total goalsFavorite
+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Gap is +5.3 percentage points, clearing the 3.5-point threshold on a rung one step below the 6.5 main line.
- Edmonton and Toronto are averaging 4.7 and 3.58 goals per game in the current form view.
- Toronto's projected Anthony Stolarz start remains unconfirmed; a goalie change could materially lower the over fair value.
Game goes to overtimeLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Ladder estimate: 24.5% overtime from the 60/40 moneyline, 40/60 home -1.5 spread, and 60/40 over/under 6.5 prices.
- Base-rate anchor is 20.7% last season; Edmonton and Toronto have each gone past regulation 3 times early this season, supporting a modest upward adjustment after shrinkage.
- The 6.5 total leans over at roughly 60%, which is structurally less favorable to a regulation tie.
Goal in first 10 minutesFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
First TenDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Both confirmed goalies are below-average this season: Jarry .873 save percentage and Stolarz .898.
- First-period Over 0.5 is 88¢; the 72% ten-minute estimate passes the coherence check.
- The 2026-27 samples are only 10 Edmonton and 12 Toronto games, so shooting rates may be noisy.
Toronto Maple Leafs +2.5Favorite
+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model makes Edmonton win by 3+ about 25%, implying roughly 75% Toronto +2.5 cover.
- Sharp moneyline anchors Edmonton around 61.8% to win; the 6.5 total supports a wide +2.5 cushion.
- Toronto +2.5 is 71c here versus -270 DraftKings and -260 FanDuel; Polymarket US is the cheaper quoted price.
- Early-season rates are thin: Edmonton has 10 games and Toronto 12 in the current sample.

Show all 10 picks

Connor McDavid under 3.5 shots on goal
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- McDavid averaged 2.5 SOG over 10 games, with the under landing in 7 of 10; his last-five average is 2.6.
- His 23.8-minute average confirms a stable top-line workload, and the lineup and Tristan Jarry matchup are confirmed.
- The recent exact-stat distribution clears the 3.5 threshold more often than the market price implies.
- Three of his last 10 games cleared 3.5, so the under is exposed to ordinary superstar shot variance.
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model makes Toronto a 43% winner after shrinking early-season scoring rates toward the 3.11 league average.
- Toronto's 3.58 goals per game and Edmonton's 3.20 goals allowed support a closer matchup than the market's 38.2% sharp fair price.
- Edmonton starter Tristan Jarry is confirmed but owns an early .873 save percentage; Toronto projects Anthony Stolarz at .898.
- Stolarz remains unconfirmed, so a late goalie change could erase the modeled edge.
Kirill Marchenko over 2.5 shots on goal
−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Novig
role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- John Tavares is on injured reserve; current deployment places Marchenko on Toronto's first power-play unit.
- Marchenko has 14.11 PP shots per 60 and 233.8 PP seconds per game this season.
- He averages 2.6 shots over his last 10 games, clearing 2.5 in 4 of 10.
- Marchenko's 12-game PP sample is thin, and the Tavares news may already be incorporated.
Edmonton Oilers puck line −1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Gap FavoriteDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Edmonton's trailing-25 goal-differential average is +0.72 versus Toronto's -0.56, a 1.28 gap clearing the 1.2 gate.
- The qualifying large-favorite bucket won by 2+ 42.7%; empty-net goals are already included in that base rate.
- ProphetX offers +140 (41.67c implied) versus the desk's approximately 42.7% fair rate, clearing the +134 minimum.
- The projection is only about 1.0 percentage point above the +140 implied price, so variance dominates.

Questions

Who won Maple Leafs vs. Oilers?

The Maple Leafs won 7–2 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.