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Bruins vs. StarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerican Airlines Center
Bruins
2–3Final
Stars
Score by period
Team1234T
BOS11002
DAL01113

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game under 6.5 total goals 60¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Poisson fit to fresh Pinnacle ML (-164/+147) and 5.5 total (-114/+101) gives about 5.78 expected goals.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-5 on this game · +2% return

  1. Game under 6.5 total goals
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson fit to fresh Pinnacle ML (-164/+147) and 5.5 total (-114/+101) gives about 5.78 expected goals.
    • Novig's total ladder is monotonic from 4.5 through 9.5; both sides of 6.5 are live.
    • A seven-goal game, especially with an empty-net goal, defeats the under.
  2. Dallas Stars to win
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Connor Clifton is a confirmed Boston scratch; his 20:38 average ice time ranks as a top-four defense role.
    • Clifton has 6 shots and 0 goals in 6 games; the defensive loss is meaningful despite limited scoring share.
    • Scratch-adjustment read: +3.0 percentage points toward Dallas; ProphetX moved 0 points favorably from its opening position.
    • The +3.0-point scratch adjustment is a role-based estimate, not a full team model.
  3. David Pastrnak 1+ goalFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

    Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 34 shots in 9 games: 3.78 per game, clearing the recent-shot candidate threshold.
    • Jake Oettinger is confirmed; his current .952 save rate materially lowers Pastrnak's goal projection.
    • Dallas owns an 89.3% penalty kill, top-four current, so the top-PP versus bottom-five-PK veto is not triggered.
    • Pastrnak remains on Boston's first power-play unit and first line, creating high-leverage scoring chances.
  4. Boston Bruins under 2.5 team goals
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Team Total SeamDown 103% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp total is 5.5, with Pinnacle pricing the over/under near 51%/49%.
    • Kalshi ladder-tail sums imply Dallas about 3.27 and Boston about 2.72 goals before reconciliation.
    • That combined team estimate is within 0.15 goals of the game ladder, but its 1.20 split is too Boston-heavy versus the roughly 60/40 Dallas moneyline split.
    • The team ladders omit the 0.5-goal rung, so the one-goal baseline used in the mean proxy is uncertain.
  5. Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +136 on FanDuel

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.25 SOG/game across 8 starts; 3.8 SOG average over his last five.
    • Boston allows 28.33 shots per game and averages 13.2 penalty minutes, creating a favorable shot and PP-opportunity matchup.
    • Pinnacle held near +129 on the over after early movement; FanDuel's +136 is the better live price.
    • Only 3 of 8 current-season games reached 4+ SOG; the sample is thin and the exact-line hit rate is volatile.
  6. Boston Bruins +2.5Favorite
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US

    Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model gives Dallas roughly 19% to win by 3+, making Boston +2.5 about 81% fair.
    • Dallas is only a 60.0% sharp-moneyline favorite, while Boston is 7-2 with a +1.7 recent scoring margin.
    • Boston has scored 3.778 goals per game versus Dallas at 2.500 through the current-season sample.
    • Dallas owns the stronger current defensive rate at 1.625 goals allowed per game and Jake Oettinger is at .952 save percentage.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Boston Bruins puck line +1.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston scores 3.778 goals/game versus Dallas at 2.500; Boston is 7-2-0, Dallas 4-3-1.
    • Confirmed starters are Jeremy Swayman and Jake Oettinger; Boston's recent form supports a competitive game.
    • Pinnacle's devigged reference makes Boston +1.5 approximately 62.6%, below my number.
    • Dallas is at home and Oettinger has a .961 save percentage across his recent five starts.
  2. Boston Bruins +1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at −178 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston is 7-2 with 3.78 goals per game; Dallas is 4-3-1 with 2.38.
    • Boston has won five straight; Dallas is 3-2 over its last five.
    • Dallas is without Esa Lindell and Matt Duchene, weakening defensive and center depth.
    • Jake Oettinger is confirmed with a .952 save percentage and 1.00 GAA in six starts.
  3. Game over 5.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team goal rates imply 3.778 Boston goals plus 2.375 Dallas goals.
    • Adding the desk's 0.2 empty-net adjustment gives a 6.353-goal mean before positive correlation.
    • Pinnacle's -160 Dallas favorite and +162 puck-line price indicate a close, pull-the-goalie profile.
    • Boston and Dallas have only 9 and 8 current-season games in the rate sample.
  4. Game total under 5.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.06 combined goals/game across 17 current-season Boston/Dallas games; 12 stayed below 5.5.
    • Opponent-adjusted scoring estimate is 5.01 goals: Boston 2.70, Dallas 2.31.
    • Dallas allows 1.63 goals/game; dated reporter checks list Swayman and Oettinger as starters.
    • Boston totals reached 6+ in 5 of 9 games; its 3.78 goals/game creates a high-tail risk.
  5. Jeremy Swayman total saves over 25.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas's prior 28.01 shots-for rate is close to the blend, and Esa Lindell is out on Dallas's blue line.
    • Most likely loss: Dallas produces 25 or fewer shots, leaving 26 saves unattainable.
  6. Game total over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • shrunk scoring rates project 5.52 goals before the adjustment; the 34% empty-net rate adds 0.34 for a 5.86 projection.
    • 5.86 is 0.36 above ProphetX's 5.5, clearing the brief's 0.3 projection gate.
    • ProphetX prices Dallas -150; Boston has won 5 of 7 current games by 1, 3 goals, while Dallas has produced three one-goal results in eight games.
    • The 5.86 projection clears by only 0.36 goals; my estimated win probability is just 54%.
  7. Game over 6.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same 6.353-goal mean produces roughly 46% over 6.5 before the positive-correlation tail lift.
    • US sportsbook prices are higher: DraftKings +125 and FanDuel +128 versus 40¢.
    • The 6.5 rung needs seven goals, so variance is substantially higher than over 5.5.

Questions

Who won Bruins vs. Stars?

The Stars won 3–2 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

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