Wild vs. OilersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRogers Place
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| EDM | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 5.5 goals 59¢
Why Empty Net Ledger likes it: Hard-shrunk shot/finish projection is about 6.8 total goals, including the 0.21-goal empty-net addition.
Empty Net LedgerUp 16% return this season · 27 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-7 on this game · −38% return
- Minnesota Wild to win−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsBackup Tax, NHL Ice Edge +1Why 3 models like it
Backup Tax- Wallstedt is the confirmed Minnesota starter: .9216 save rate through 8 starts, plus .9157 over 33 starts last season.
- Levi is Edmonton's confirmed starter and grades below the backup-tax reference: .8978 through 5 starts.
- Edmonton is home and has scored 4.625 goals per game in a small eight-game sample.
NHL Ice Edge- Recent 5v5 Corsi: Minnesota 52.8% vs Edmonton 48.0%, a 4.7-point edge.
- Recent SOG differential favors Minnesota by 6.2 attempts per game.
- Edmonton averages 4.63 goals per game at home-season baseline; elite finishing can overwhelm territory.
Fade the Goalie- official NHL lineup confirms Devon Levi, a non-elite backup/tandem goalie, starts for Edmonton.
- Levi is at .8978 save percentage over five starts, below the .9065 starter benchmark, with 27.7 shots against per 60.
- Levi has three quality starts and the five-start sample is small; his .8978 rate may regress upward.
- Game total over 5.5 goals+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hard-shrunk shot/finish projection is about 6.8 total goals, including the 0.21-goal empty-net addition.
- Edmonton is the sharp-market favorite by roughly 0.4 goals; Wild defensive absences add scoring pressure.
- Devon Levi is expected for Edmonton after a .884 early-season save rate; Jesper Wallstedt starts for Minnesota.
- The 2026-27 sample is only 8-9 games, so finishing rates remain noisy despite heavy regression to 2025-26.
- Edmonton Oilers to win+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official NHL game preview confirms Minnesota without Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, and Olli Maatta; projected replacements are lower-pair options.
- Faber logged 24:41 per game last season with 15 goals and 173 shots; Spurgeon and Maatta are both above 21 minutes this season.
- Spurgeon plus Maatta account for 1 of Minnesota's 28 current goals and 10 of 268 shots despite missing substantial minutes tonight.
- The Wild absences may already be incorporated despite the adverse ProphetX move; timing cannot prove the market is stale.
- Connor McDavid shots on goal under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at −165 on BetMGM
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 3.5 in 7 of 8 games; season average is 2.25 SOG.
- Minnesota allows 25.33 shots per game, seventh-fewest among 32 teams.
- McDavid is listed on Edmonton's PP1; tracked Pinnacle 2.5-line movement was only 3 cents.
- Eight-game sample leaves Negative Binomial dispersion uncertain.
- Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers first-period total over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season first-period rates are 1.33 MIN plus 1.63 EDM goals per game (2.96 combined).
- Those first-period rates are 38% of the teams' 7.74 combined goals per game; nesting that share to the 6.5 game-total market gives λ1 about 2.4.
- The 2.4 first-period mean relies on only 8-9 games of 2026-27 team data.
- Game total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Poisson model projects 6.2 goals after shrinking nine-game rates toward the 3.07 league average.
- Minnesota allows 2.33 goals per game; projected Wallstedt has a .922 save percentage through eight starts.
- Projected Levi's .898 save percentage keeps the goalie-adjusted total near 6.2, within 0.3 of the sharp 6.5 line.
- Wallstedt and Levi remain unconfirmed; Jarry instead of Levi would materially raise Edmonton's scoring projection.
Show all 9 picks
- Connor McDavid over 1.5 points+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- McDavid has 14 five-on-five points in eight games, or 1.75 per game: 16.7% above the 1.5 line before special-teams production.
- Edmonton leads the league at 4.63 goals per game, sustaining elite scoring opportunity.
- The official Oilers projection places McDavid on the top line between Podkolzin and Draisaitl.
- A five-on-five sample of eight games is small, and the 6.24 points-per-60 rate can regress.
- Matt Boldy over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.4 shots per game through eight games is 25.7% above the 3.5 projection.
- Boldy is projected on Minnesota's top line with Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek; no scratch is listed.
- The 4.4 average is an eight-game sample and may regress quickly.
- Minnesota Wild first-period spread −0.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US
Square FrameUp 3% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Wild +0.5 is the cheaper first-period +0.5 side: 65¢ versus Oilers +0.5 at 71¢.
- Wild -0.5 at 34¢ plus Oilers -0.5 at 38¢ implies a 28% tie mass, 6.1 points below the 34.1% baseline.
- First-period under 0.5 goals costs 19¢, so the inferred tie mass comfortably exceeds the roughly 17% zero-goal check.
- The 34.1% tie baseline is historical and may not fit this specific matchup or current NHL environment.
Questions
Who won Wild vs. Oilers?
The Oilers won 4–3 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.