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Red Wings vs. KrakenFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalClimate Pledge Arena
Red Wings
3–4Final
Kraken
Score by period
Team12345T
DET003003
SEA120014

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game over 5.5 total goals 60¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Internal coherence: Pinnacle's de-vigged 6.5 total implies a Poisson game-goal mean of approximately 6.61.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 6-3 on this game · +15% return

  1. Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 shots on goal2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsNHL Shot Volume Hunter, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NHL Shot Volume Hunter
    • Last five average 4.4 SOG versus the 3.5 line; last-eight average 3.75.
    • Average recent ice time is 19:53, above the 16:00 gate.
    • Baseline uses the five-game fallback because only eight current-season games are loaded.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • DeBrincat produced 22 shots in his last five current-season games, averaging 4.4 versus the 3.5 line.
    • NHL preview projects DeBrincat active on Detroit’s second line; the live PrizePicks board also lists him as a participant.
    • Five-game form sample is small and includes a seven-shot outlier.
  2. Game over 5.5 total goals
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: Pinnacle's de-vigged 6.5 total implies a Poisson game-goal mean of approximately 6.61.
    • The Novig total ladder is monotonic from 4.5 through 9.5; both 5.5 sides are live.
    • Daily Faceoff lists Daniil Tarasov and Philipp Grubauer confirmed as the starters.
    • The Poisson fit is inferred from one Pinnacle moneyline/total snapshot, not an independent scoring model.
  3. Game total over 5.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Novig

    Empty Net MathNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.5 total (-102/-110) devigs to 49.1% over, implying a Poisson total mean near 6.61.
    • Adding the brief's 0.20-goal empty-net adjustment raises the model mean to about 6.81; P(over 5.5) is 67.4%.
    • Detroit is the Pinnacle favorite at -114; the fitted pair clears the 38% one-goal-margin candidate gate.
    • Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed, so the scoring estimate can move with the eventual assignments.
  4. Over 5.5 total goals
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Novig

    Whistle CountDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kyle Rehman and Brandon Schrader average 6.175 combined power-play chances per game across their latest 40 assignments each, above the 5.9 gate.
    • Detroit averages 3.50 and Seattle 3.22 PP opportunities per game; league team PIM is 9.893, clearing both stack gates.
    • The total remains 6.5 from the opening capture through the current Pinnacle board, so the crew/news tilt is not priced into a line move.
    • Seattle starter Philipp Grubauer was not fully confirmed; goalie variance can overwhelm a small special-teams tilt.
  5. Detroit Red Wings to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    NHL Ice EdgeUp 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent 5v5 Corsi: Detroit 51.7% vs Seattle 42.4%, a 9.3-point edge matching the season baseline.
    • Recent SOG differential favors Detroit by 8.6 attempts per game.
    • Confirmed Tarasov (.965 save rate) substantially outperforms confirmed Grubauer (.910).
    • Seattle owns the recent special-teams edge: PP+PK 98.5% versus Detroit's 78.9%.
  6. Emmitt Finnie over 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on DraftKings

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.50 SOG/game this season; 3.00 across his last five, with 6 of 8 games clearing 1.5.
    • Projected PP1 role and second-line usage; recent TOI is stable at 17.3 minutes versus 17.0 season-long.
    • Negative-binomial projection is about 2.7 SOG and 67% over 1.5; DraftKings -125 (55.6% break-even) leaves substantial model edge.
    • Official lines and PP units remain projected rather than confirmed; conviction is capped at medium.
Show all 8 picks
  1. Alex DeBrincat under 3.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 average is 3.7 shots on goal, inside the 3.5, 4.0 regression bucket.
    • Model fair is 60%; Detroit is on the road (+2), offset by Seattle allowing 31.67 shots per game (top fifth, -3).
    • Recent DeBrincat power-play time was 267 and 354 seconds, supporting established usage rather than a newly created role.
    • Power-play units and late scratches are not final roughly two hours before puck drop.
  2. Vince Dunn under 2.5 shots on goal
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of 9 current-season games under 2.5 SOG; season hit rate 66.7%.
    • Current-season SOG average is 1.78 (16 in 9 games), below the 2.5 line.
    • L5 is 3 of 5 under; recent TOI remains top-four-defense level, supporting a stable role.
    • Nine-game current-season sample is thin; three games reached at least 3 SOG.

Questions

Who won Red Wings vs. Kraken?

The Kraken won 4–3 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

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