Jets vs. BluesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalEnterprise Center

Jets

1–2Final

Blues

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	0	1	1
STL	1	0	1	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

St. Louis Blues to win 55¢

Why The Stanley Cup likes it: St. Louis owns a 3.0-point combined 5v5 SAT/USAT possession advantage: .507 versus Winnipeg’s .477.

The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-3 on this game · +8% return

St. Louis Blues to win2 models agree
+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Fade the Goalie
Why 2 models like it
The Stanley Cup
- St. Louis owns a 3.0-point combined 5v5 SAT/USAT possession advantage: .507 versus Winnipeg’s .477.
- Blues average 3.38 goals per game versus Winnipeg’s 2.88 through eight regular-season games.
- Eight-game samples are small; both teams have the same -0.125 net-goal margin per game.
Fade the Goalie
- Skinner's prior 2025 season was .8879 over 50 starts; his current five-start sample includes a .906 save rate and only 3 quality starts.
- St. Louis ranks 14th of 32 in current Corsi share (51.1%) and 16th in goal differential, clearing the top-half opponent gate.
- Skinner's current .906 rate is not clearly negative versus expected; the backup-role thesis carries more weight than the tiny 2026 sample.
St. Louis Blues over 2.5 goals
−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Whistle CrewDown 41% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- St. Louis averages 10.0 PIM/game; Winnipeg's penalty kill is 78.9% through eight games.
- The referee crew's 6.25 last-40 PP-chance average clears the 5.9 top-quartile marker.
- St. Louis averages 3.38 goals/game; an adjusted team mean near 3.6 gives roughly 69% for three-plus.
- Winnipeg draws only 2.38 opponent PP chances/game, reducing the penalty path despite its weak PK.
St. Louis Blues puck line −1.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US
Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 37% goal-difference projection for St. Louis winning by 2+; empty-net scoring is included.
- Confirmed Stuart Skinner is Winnipeg's backup; the backup allowance adds 0.3 expected goals against the Jets.
- FanDuel has St. Louis -144, meeting the -140 moneyline gate; US puck-line prices are +180 to +185 versus 34¢ here.
- Joel Hofer is also confirmed for St. Louis, so the own-backup effect offsets part of Winnipeg's penalty.
Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal
+122%Won
Taken at +122 on FanDuel
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 37 SOG in 8 games (4.63/game); cleared 3.5 in 7 of 8.
- Confirmed Winnipeg PP1 role with Scheifele, Vilardi, Perfetti; Connor averages 20.7 minutes.
- St. Louis averages 2.9 times shorthanded per game; Winnipeg's season power play converts at 30%.
- The sample is only eight regular-season games, so the 7-of-8 hit rate is noisy.
St. Louis Blues −1.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US
Form GapDown 32% profit over 11 picks
Why it likes it
- 25-game goal differential is +0.68/game for St. Louis versus -0.60 for Winnipeg, a 1.28-goal form gap clearing the 1.2 gate.
- The qualifying form bucket wins by 2+ about 42.7%; the 34¢ contract is materially below the roughly 43% fair estimate.
- Full-game Blues -1.5 is the Polymarket US NO side of the Jets +1.5 contract: 34¢, with the opposite side at 67¢; the 1¢ spread is acceptable.
- The 1.28-goal gap is only 0.08 above the qualifying threshold and is sensitive to early-season shrinkage toward last season.
Winnipeg Jets +2.5Favorite
+28%Won
Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model estimates St. Louis win by 2+ at 30.2%; Winnipeg +1.5 fair near 69.8%.
- Model estimates St. Louis win by 3+ at 17.4%; Winnipeg +2.5 fair near 82.6%.
- Through eight games, St. Louis averages 3.38 GF/3.50 GA; Winnipeg averages 2.88 GF/3.00 GA.
- Both teams have only eight current-season games, making rate estimates noisy.

Show all 7 picks

Winnipeg Jets +1.5Favorite
+49%Won
Taken at −205 on FanDuel
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7 of Winnipeg's 8 games stayed within one goal or were wins; only one loss came by 2+ goals.
- Confirmed Stuart Skinner vs. Joel Hofer removes the unpriced goalie uncertainty; both are above .900 season save percentage.
- Winnipeg has three days' rest, matching St. Louis; no back-to-back disadvantage.
- Winnipeg's 47.7% season 5v5 Corsi trails St. Louis at 52.5%, and the Blues are at home.

Questions

Who won Jets vs. Blues?

The Blues won 2–1 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.