Maple Leafs vs. Blue JacketsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalNationwide Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 7.5 total goals 30¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Internal coherence: Poisson pair fit to Pinnacle -148/+133 and 6.5 total -106/-106 gives 35.3% fair for over 7.5.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-3 on this game · +40% return
- Over 7.5 total goals+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Internal coherence: Poisson pair fit to Pinnacle -148/+133 and 6.5 total -106/-106 gives 35.3% fair for over 7.5.
- Toronto and Columbus have combined recent defensive volatility, including Columbus allowing 7 and Toronto allowing 5 in recent games.
- Both probable goalies remain unconfirmed roughly six hours before puck drop; this is a 0.5u position.
- Auston Matthews shots on goal under 3.5+69%Won
Taken at −145 on BetMGM
Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected mean: 2.85 SOG after 3.00 season/L10 baseline and 0.95 travel-B2B adjustment.
- Under 3.5 in 6 of his first 10 games; recent SOG totals are 3, 1, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 1, 3.
- Negative-binomial model gives approximately 67% for 3 or fewer; Pinnacle devigged under reference was about 55.3%.
- Toronto’s PP1 pairing is not officially confirmed; prior-game PP usage is the fallback, so conviction is capped at medium.
- Game total over 6+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Columbus is a qualifying -150 favorite; current one-goal margins were 2/7 for CBJ and 2/10 for Toronto.
- Projection class: the listed 6.5 market and ProphetX ladder have not fully absorbed the favorite-led empty-net script.
- Columbus's starter is unconfirmed; the official preview lists Jet Greaves or Cam Talbot, while Stolarz is only expected for Toronto.
- Columbus Blue Jackets to win−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Chris Tanev is confirmed injured/out in the official NHL preview; his recent normal workload was about 18:50 per game, 31.4% of a 60-minute skater slot.
- John Tavares is also listed injured/out; his current-season workload was about 16:33 per game, adding a second Toronto subtraction.
- Rebuilt estimate: Toronto's absences swing expected goal differential roughly 0.25 toward Columbus; my CBJ win probability is 63%.
- Tavares is a second-line rather than literal first-line forward, so his offensive replacement effect may be smaller than estimated.
- Toronto Maple Leafs two-way to win+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Toronto two-way implies 41.3%; regulation Toronto implies 32.8% and tie implies 23.5%.
- Combined current-season sample has 5 past-regulation games in 17 team games; the matchup rate is shrunk back to the 22% league prior.
- Goalie listings are expected rather than final; late confirmation or a scratch could move both related markets.
- Auston Matthews over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at +125 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 36 of 70 prior/current regular-season games cleared 3.5 SOG (51.4%, no pushes).
- Prior-season sample: 32 of 60 over, averaging 3.78 SOG.
- Current role is stable: confirmed first-line placement and 21.66 current-season TOI per game.
- Current season is only 4 of 10 over, with a 3.0 SOG average.
Show all 8 picks
- Anthony Stolarz under 28.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stolarz is confirmed to start for Toronto.
- He averages 23.3 saves across three 2026-27 starts; the under has hit in 2 of 3.
- Columbus averages 26.1 shots per game this season, below the 28.5-saves line.
- The goalie sample is only three starts, so the average is fragile.
- Game total over 6.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Novig
Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle 6.5 was -106/-106, a 50.0% de-vigged over reference; the total remains 6.5 with no meaningful goalie-news move.
- Anthony Stolarz is confirmed after Toronto's usual starter Sergei Bobrovsky had seven starts; one backup adds 0.30 goals, modeled as +4.5 points.
- The +4.0-point gap is exactly the minimum, and converting 0.30 goals to 4.5 probability points is approximate.
Questions
Who won Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets?
The Maple Leafs won 6–2 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.