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Ducks vs. IslandersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUBS Arena
Ducks
2–3Final
Islanders
Score by period
Team123T
ANA1012
NYI3003

Top model pick, graded

Won

Lukas Dostal under 25.5 total saves −137

Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: Dostal made 107 saves across his last five starts, 21.4 per game versus a 25.5 line.

Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 628 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-4 on this game · −17% return

  1. New York Islanders to win2 models agree
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on BetMGM

    2 modelsThe Stanley Cup, Cohort Check
    Why 2 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Confirmed goalie edge: Ilya Sorokin is 0.940 SV%, 0.946 even-strength SV%, and 5-for-5 in quality starts; Lukas Dostal is 0.881/0.896 with 3 quality starts in 6 starts.
    • Combined 5-on-5 possession proxy favors NYI: 0.510 SAT/USAT average versus Anaheim's 0.497; this avoids counting Corsi and Fenwick as separate votes.
    • The Islanders are without Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, and Alexander Romanov; Anaheim is without Troy Terry, so lineup effects are not one-sided.
    Cohort Check
    • Own price 62.2%; NYI 3.00 GF/2.25 GA over 8 games versus ANA 3.00/3.25.
    • Confirmed goalie edge: Ilya Sorokin .9398 save percentage versus Lukas Dostal .8816 this season.
    • Anaheim still averages 3.00 goals per game, so the Ducks can overcome the goalie gap with finishing.
  2. Lukas Dostal under 25.5 total savesHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dostal made 107 saves across his last five starts, 21.4 per game versus a 25.5 line.
    • Anaheim, Islanders team context points to a moderate-shot matchup; NYI allow 26.4 shots per game.
    • Dostal is confirmed to start, and the PrizePicks board confirms this game-specific prop.
    • Five-game save sample is small and includes only early-season opponents.
  3. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +53900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Barcelona: warehouse model makes the away win 65.9% versus ProphetX's 51.46c; Barcelona is 10-0 with 3.395 opponent-adjusted xG for.
    • Barcelona's starting XI was unconfirmed; the model features are through October 17, and PSG has home field.
  4. Anaheim Ducks +1.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, fair probability 68% (about -213) versus ProphetX's 64.5% implied price.
    • Current form gap is moderate: Islanders +0.75 goals/game versus Anaheim -0.25, below the strongest-favourite bucket.
    • The complete ProphetX ladder is monotone: Anaheim +1.5 -182, +2.5 -320, +3.5 -960.
    • Anaheim is on a back-to-back; the Ducks played October 19 and face a rested Islanders team.
  5. Game goes to overtimeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    Overtime BookUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline ladder: Islanders 59c / Ducks 41c; the modest favorite profile supports a competitive regulation game.
    • Spread ladder: Islanders -1.5 at 36.5c / Ducks +1.5 at 21.5c; total ladder: Over 5.5 at 54c.
    • Anaheim went past regulation in 26.6% of 2025-season games and New York in 23.2%; hard-shrunk toward the 24.8% league base.
    • The 28% estimate is inferred from two-way moneyline, -1.5 spread, and 5.5 total prices rather than a direct regulation three-way quote.
  6. Mikael Granlund over 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected mean is about 2.1 SOG after a 0.95 second-night travel adjustment; negative-binomial P(2+) is about 59%.
    • Granlund has 14 SOG in 7 games and cleared 1.5 in 6 of 7; the current sample mean is 2.0.
    • Fresh projection has him on Anaheim's PP1 and second even-strength line; season PP usage is 253.9 seconds per game.
    • Projected lines and PP units are not yet officially confirmed; conviction is capped at medium.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Game over 5.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams average 3.0 goals per game through eight 2026-27 contests; empty-net adjustment lifts the mean to 6.2.
    • Islanders are a -155 to -156 favorite, with a roughly one-goal profile; the sharp total is 6.0.
    • The 3.0-goal team rates are an eight-game early-season sample and may regress.

Questions

Who won Ducks vs. Islanders?

The Islanders won 3–2 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

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