Avalanche vs. DevilsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPrudential Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| NJ | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 6.0 56¢
Why Backup Burst likes it: blended recent/last-season baseline is about 6.0 goals; +0.3 backup effect and +0.4 shot-environment adjustment produce a 6.7-goal projection.
Backup BurstNew · 9 graded so far
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +8% return
- Scott Wedgewood total saves under 27.5−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New Jersey's prior 29.59 shots-for rate and Colorado's prior 26.13 shots-against rate point below 28 saves.
- Colorado played Monday; back-to-back fatigue and pull risk reinforce the under, with conviction capped at 0.75u.
- Most likely loss: New Jersey reaches 28 or more shots and Wedgewood completes the game.
- Game total over 6.0+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Backup BurstUp 91% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- blended recent/last-season baseline is about 6.0 goals; +0.3 backup effect and +0.4 shot-environment adjustment produce a 6.7-goal projection.
- New Jersey ranks 2nd of 33 and Colorado 1st of 33 in the 15-game shot-attempt window: 66.67 and 67.27 attempts per game.
- Scott Wedgewood is confirmed for Colorado, the backup behind Mackenzie Blackwood; Jake Allen is confirmed for New Jersey in his second straight start.
- The 6.7 projection is only 0.7 above this line; NHL scoring variance remains substantial.
- Colorado Avalanche wins by over 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Margin MathDown 105% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado is at +1.2 recent goal differential per game versus New Jersey at -0.2, a 1.4-goal margin gap.
- The strongest-favorite base rate is 42.7% to win by 2+; hard early-season shrink still leaves roughly 40%.
- Scott Wedgewood and Jake Allen were both confirmed starters in the live goalie lookup.
- Colorado is a slight moneyline underdog, so treating its margin profile as the favorite signal is the key model risk.
- Colorado Avalanche +1.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado has a +1.22 goal margin through 9 games; New Jersey is at -0.25 through 8.
- Confirmed starters are Scott Wedgewood and Jake Allen; Wedgewood has a .903 early-season save rate.
- Early-season samples are small: 9 and 8 team games, and only 2 Wedgewood starts.
- Game total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Grade B72: empirical regular-season blend makes under 6.5 57.3%, 5.9 points above the 51.4% devig market baseline.
- Prior regular-season sample: 97 of 164 Colorado/New Jersey team games stayed below 6.5 (59.1%).
- Current-season sample: 9 of 17 stayed below 6.5 (52.9%); 70/30 prior/current weighting avoids overreacting to nine-game scoring noise.
- Colorado and New Jersey current-season game averages are elevated at 7.22 and 6.50 total goals, respectively.
- Arseny Gritsyuk over 0.5 points+145%Won
Taken at +145 on BetMGM
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5 points (3 goals, 2 assists) in Gritsyuk's last five games; he recorded a point in four of five.
- His 1.00 points-per-game recent rate is 100% above the posted 0.5-point threshold.
- Projected on New Jersey's second line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, preserving top-six opportunity.
- Five-game sample is small, and three recent goals create clear shooting-regression risk.
Show all 7 picks
- New Jersey Devils to win+88%Won
Taken at −114 on williamhill_us
The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 55% estimated win probability; fair price about -122, versus Caesars -114.
- New Jersey owns the stronger early 5-on-5 possession profile: 61.2% Corsi and 59.3% Fenwick.
- Colorado is on a road back-to-back after Monday's 2-3 loss; New Jersey has three days of rest.
- Colorado has scored 4.22 goals per game versus New Jersey's 3.13 through small 9-game and 8-game samples.
Questions
Who won Avalanche vs. Devils?
The Devils won 4–3 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.