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Devils vs. Red WingsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLittle Caesars Arena
Devils
5–4Final
Red Wings
Score by period
Team1234T
NJ13015
DET12104

Top model pick, graded

Won

New Jersey Devils over 6 total 50¢

Why Backup Burst likes it: 15-game blended attack/defense baseline is 6.44 goals; adding the backup-start adjustment gives 6.74, or 0.74 above 6.0.

Backup BurstNew · 9 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 3-6 on this game · −43% return

  1. New Jersey Devils over 6 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Backup BurstUp 91% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15-game blended attack/defense baseline is 6.44 goals; adding the backup-start adjustment gives 6.74, or 0.74 above 6.0.
    • Detroit ranks sixth of 32 in the blended 15-game shot sample at 29.33 per game; its current five-game rate is 32.6.
    • Jake Allen is confirmed for New Jersey and identified as the backup; John Gibson is confirmed as Detroit's starter, satisfying the one-backup gate.
    • The 15-game shot blend contains only five current-season games plus ten from last season; early-season shrinkage creates meaningful model uncertainty.
  2. Goal in first 10 minutes
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Nico Daws (.823 SV%) and John Gibson (.862 SV%) form a two-shaky-goalie pairing.
    • New Jersey and Detroit average 36.2 and 32.6 shots on goal per game, respectively.
    • Teams combine for 4.2 goals per game through five games; each is shooting about 6.1%.
    • The goalie sample is only five games and save percentage can regress sharply.
  3. Jack Hughes under 3.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Novig

    Hot Hand TaxUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 10: 35 shots, exactly 3.5 per game, qualifying for the 3.5, 4.0 regression bucket.
    • Road-player adjustment adds 2 points to the 60% base under estimate, producing 62% fair.
    • Pinnacle de-vigged under fair is 56.1%; Novig is only 0.6 points below that reference.
    • The last-10 sample splits five current-season games and five from last season; the baseline is noisy.
  4. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own blended goal model is 5.4: NJ averages 2.2 GF/3.6 GA and Detroit 2.0 GF/3.0 GA through five games.
    • Jake Allen (.896 SV%) and John Gibson (.862 SV%) are confirmed; Allen is the stronger current starter and supports the under.
    • Pinnacle's sharp reference centers the game at 6 goals; my under-6.5 estimate is 61%, six points above Polymarket's 55c cost.
    • Five-game goal samples are noisy and can badly misstate true scoring rates.
  5. Detroit Red Wings +1.5Favorite
    +40%Won

    Taken at −250 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit has allowed 3.0 goals per game versus New Jersey's 3.6 through five games.
    • Rest favors Detroit: three days off versus New Jersey on a back-to-back after Monday's 1-4 loss.
    • My fair price is approximately -335; FanDuel's -250 leaves a meaningful price buffer.
    • New Jersey owns the stronger early 5v5 process: 63.0% Corsi versus Detroit's 55.2%.
  6. Timo Meier over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −138 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of Meier's last 5 games cleared 2.5 shots; five-game average is 4.6.
    • Meier has 23 shots in five games this season.
    • FanDuel -138 implies about 58%; my estimate is 65%.
    • Detroit has allowed only 25.4 shots per game through five.
Show all 9 picks
  1. First-period total under 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NJD and DET first-period matchup rates imply 1.30 raw goals: 0.7 NJD expected plus 0.6 DET expected across five games.
    • The full-game ladder centers near 6.3 goals; nesting the 5.4 team-rate baseline scales the first-period mean to about 1.52.
    • The period-rate sample is only five games per team, so 1.30 is noisy and may regress sharply.
  2. Under 6.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is approximately 6.0 goals after shrinking five-game team rates toward the 3.055/3.081 league averages.
    • Poisson probability of six or fewer goals is about 60%, versus a 56¢ Polymarket US under price.
    • Sharp reference is 6.0 at Pinnacle (-104 over/-108 under); the model and sharp number agree within 0.1 goals.
    • Gibson's current .862 save percentage and New Jersey's 3.6 goals-against rate can create a seven-goal game.
  3. John Gibson under 24.5 total saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • John Gibson is the posted saves-prop participant; Detroit had no game yesterday, so rest is known.
    • Gibson has only four current starts and his .8621 save percentage is a small, unusually cold sample; regression could raise his workload outcome indirectly through more NJD chances.

Questions

Who won Devils vs. Red Wings?

The Devils won 5–4 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.

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