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FinalSardegna Arena · Cagliari
Bologna
2–0Final
Cagliari
Score by period
Team12T
BOLO022
CAGL000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Bologna to win +165

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Bologna’s pregame rolling possession is 48.7% versus Cagliari’s 44.3%, supporting Palladino’s control-oriented build-up.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +225% return

  1. Bologna to win4 models agree
    +165%Won

    Taken at +165 on FanDuel

    4 modelsCoaches Corner, Low Tide Line +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Bologna’s pregame rolling possession is 48.7% versus Cagliari’s 44.3%, supporting Palladino’s control-oriented build-up.
    • Bologna’s PPDA is 12.96 versus Cagliari’s 17.45, a meaningful pressing-intensity gap favoring the away tactical scheme.
    • The style-preview macro returned no row, so the coach-versus-coach matchup lacks a direct automated grade.
    Low Tide Line
    • Bologna's rolling xG differential is +0.07 per match; Cagliari's is -0.49 across 10 matches.
    • Pinnacle makes Bologna the shortest 3-way outcome (+166 vs Cagliari +212 and draw +202), agreeing on direction.
    • Bologna's expected XI is not official; Orsolini, Piccoli and Holm are listed out, and the model-market gap is unusually large.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model makes Bologna 53.1%; BetMGM +170 implies 37.0% before margin.
    • Bologna opponent-adjusted xG is 1.44 away versus Cagliari's 1.26 at home.
    • Cagliari's home form is 6-1-3 for 19 points; Bologna is only 3-3-4 away.
    Number Earned
    • Model assigns Bologna a 53.1% away-win probability from 1.75 away xG and 1.06 home xG.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Bologna 1.44-1.26 attacking and 1.14-1.64 defensively.
    • Bologna's projected XI is not confirmed; Orsolini, Piccoli and Holm are listed out.
  2. Over 2.5 total goals2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsEarly Whistle, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Early Whistle
    • Model rate pair is 1.06/1.75; its 2.81 total implies 53.2% over 2.5.
    • Opponent-adjusted rates produce approximately 1.20 Cagliari goals and 1.54 Bologna goals: 2.74 combined.
    • Expected, not confirmed, XIs; Bologna's projected outs include Riccardo Orsolini and Roberto Piccoli.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model makes Over 2.5 53.3%; BetMGM +120 implies 45.5%.
    • The model's expected-goal lambdas sum to 2.81.
    • Only four head-to-head meetings are on file, averaging 1.75 total goals.
  3. Total goals under 2.5
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five fixture-listed absences include Bologna attackers Riccardo Orsolini (2.61 xG, 0.44 xG/90) and Roberto Piccoli (1.43 xG, 0.19 xG/90), plus Cagliari winger Mattia Felici (0.35 xG, 0.10 xG/90).
    • Bologna still start Federico Bernardeschi, Nicolò Cambiaghi and Jens Odgaard; Cagliari start Daniel Maldini and Paul Mendy.
  4. Both Teams To Score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cagliari scoring read: 71% (9 xG matches), using 1.26 opp-adjusted xGF against Bologna's 1.25 xGA.
    • Bologna scoring read: 79% (10 xG matches), using 1.44 opp-adjusted xGF against Cagliari's 1.69 xGA.
    • Symmetric BTTS case: both scoring probabilities exceed 70%; product read is 56.1% YES.
    • Both lineups remain expected, with late availability changes unconfirmed before kickoff.
  5. Bologna wins by more than 1.5 goalsLong shot
    +567%Won

    Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Cagliari 1.06 and Bologna 1.75; cross-check P(Bologna margin ≥2) is approximately 29.8%.
    • Serie A sample has 117 of 176 matches ending at margins 0, +1, or -1, confirming lumpy low-margin outcomes.
    • Bologna wins by 0 or 1 in many plausible scores, losing this exact contract despite winning the match.
  6. Bologna FC wins 2-0Long shot
    +1567%Won

    Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lambda values are 1.06 home and 1.75 away; 0-2 ranks fourth in the six-score top-k.
    • correct score has no sharp-book quote; model error is uncalibrated.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Match over 2.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG pairings: Cagliari (1.26 xGF + 1.14 Bologna xGA)/2 and Bologna (1.44 xGF + 1.64 Cagliari xGA)/2 imply 2.74 goals.
    • Cagliari has only 9 xG-covered matches, below the 12-game top tier; model uncertainty is meaningful.

Questions

Who won Bologna vs. Cagliari?

Bologna won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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