FinalStadio Olimpico · Roma
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| ROMA | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 2.5 total goals 53¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: Roma 1.99 for / Cagliari 1.63 against; Cagliari 1.00 for / Roma 1.07 against.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-1 on this game · +75% return
- Over 2.5 total goals+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Opp-adjusted xG: Roma 1.99 for / Cagliari 1.63 against; Cagliari 1.00 for / Roma 1.07 against.
- The xG-derived total is only about 0.04 above the ladder-implied estimate; projected edge is thin.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Expected goals: Roma 2.33, Cagliari 0.77; combined projection is about 3.10.
- Roma averages 18.1 shots and 3.2 big chances created over the recent 10-game window.
- Roma are without Paulo Dybala and Manu Koné; those absences could blunt the home attack.
- Both teams to score+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsBoth Sides Dangerous, Both NetsWhy 2 models like it
Both Sides Dangerous- Opponent-adjusted xGF supports both attacks: Roma 1.99, Cagliari 1.00 per match.
- Cagliari allow 1.63 opponent-adjusted xGA; Roma average 18.1 shots and 5.8 shots on target over 10.
- Cagliari's attack is the thinner side: 0.96 raw xGF and 0.8 goals per game across the last five.
Both Nets- Roma scoring read: 84% (xG-for 2.01 vs Cagliari xGA 1.65; 10/9 xG matches); Cagliari: 66% (0.96 vs Roma 1.22; 9/10).
- Independent side estimates combine to about 55.5% BTTS-YES; symmetric enough to score, with Roma the stronger attacker.
- Roma’s 84% scoring estimate still leaves a meaningful clean-sheet path; one side failing to score loses the contract.
- Total Goals over 2.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- No verified travel, rest, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shape pillar; this is the one permitted off-thesis LEAN.
- Model features date to Oct. 24, and this is a thin model-versus-venue projection without a qualifying decay pillar.
- Cagliari +1.5 spread (NO on Roma winning by more than 1.5 goals)−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted rates: Roma xGF 1.99 / Cagliari xGA 1.63; Cagliari xGF 1.00 / Roma xGA 1.07. DC lambdas: Roma 2.33, Cagliari 0.77; minimum xG sample 9 per side.
- Lambda score-difference estimate gives about 51% for Roma not winning by 2+; model-market gap is only ~1 percentage point.
- Serie A current-season sample: 68/80 matches (85%) had absolute goal difference 0, 1, or 2; supports lumpy margins, not a smooth margin ladder.
- The estimated 51% win chance is only a thin edge over the 50¢ NO price; ordinary variance can erase it.
Questions
Who won Cagliari vs. Roma?
Roma won 4-2 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.