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FinalStadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
Bologna
4–2Final
AC Milan
Score by period
Team12T
BOLO134
AC202

Top model pick, graded

Won

Bologna spread +0.5 43¢

Half Goal PairsEven this season · 60 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-2 on this game · +172% return

  1. Bologna +0.52 models agree
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Long Haul
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • AC Milan usual-XI attack xG is 2.94; its confirmed XI is 2.48, a -0.46 delta.
    • Adrien Rabiot is out: six-match form shows a 7.65 rating, 0.25 xG/90 and 0.68 big chances/90.
    • Most likely loss: Milan wins by one despite the weakened attack, which defeats Bologna +0.5.
    Long Haul
    • Rest decay: AC Milan has 3 rest days and a true congestion flag; Bologna has 4 rest days and no congestion flag.
    • Confirmed-XI check passed at 9:46 AM PDT; the one-day rest gap was not erased by a late rotation surprise.
    • Both teams have substantial listed absences: 4 Bologna starters/out-list players and 8 for AC Milan; XI quality may be mismeasured.
  2. Bologna to winLong shot2 models agree
    +450%Won

    Taken at +450 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Bologna's opponent-adjusted away xG is 1.41 per match; Milan's home adjusted defensive xG is 1.06.
    • FanDuel offers +450, materially above the +420 sharp reference and +400 DraftKings price.
    • AC Milan still owns the stronger home-side rating and market position; the favorite can control territory despite the model gap.
    Number Earned
    • Opponent-adjusted xG is Bologna 1.41 for / 1.09 against versus Milan 1.71 / 1.06.
    • DraftKings +400 implies 20.0%, a 10.0 percentage-point gap versus the model.
    • Milan owns the stronger Elo rating (1714 vs 1599) and better home form; the model still makes Milan the likelier winner.
  3. Bologna spread +0.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Half Goal PairsUp 2% last 7 days
  4. Bologna winLong shot
    +456%Won

    Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi rose from 16.5¢ to 17.5¢ and Pinnacle’s Bologna price shortened from +445 to +435, movement with the projection.
    • Directional check: model, non-split cohort, and recent movement favor Bologna; Pinnacle’s sharp probability materially disagrees.
    • The model is a calibrated-risk feature, not a validated standalone forecast; a 12-point gap may be model error or missing information.
  5. Bologna wins 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 41 first-half goals from 90 total goals in 30 recent 2026 Serie A fixtures; share 45.6%.
    • Scaled lambdas are 0.61 AC Milan and 0.50 Bologna; Dixon-Coles gives Bologna a 24.1% first-half win probability.
    • Bologna wins the 1H only 24.1% in the model; 75.9% of outcomes lose.
  6. Both Teams To Score
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • AC Milan scoring estimate 76.6%: midpoint of 1.71 opp-adjusted xGF and Bologna's 1.19 xGA; 10 xG games.
    • Bologna scoring estimate 72.7%: midpoint of 1.41 opp-adjusted xGF and Milan's 1.21 xGA; 10 xG games; symmetric scoring profile.
    • Expected lineups, last updated 10/27 evening, are not confirmed; late changes could alter either side's scoring chance.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Total goals over 2.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG read: AC Milan expected 1.40 (1.71 xGF, Bologna 1.09 xGA); Bologna expected 1.23 (1.41 xGF, AC Milan 1.06 xGA); total 2.64.
    • Kalshi's complete 0.5, 5.5 ladder implies approximately 2.55 expected goals; 2.64 is a small PROJECTION edge toward over 2.5.
    • The xG-vs-market mean gap is only about 0.09 goals, so normal soccer variance dominates the price edge.
  2. Bologna FC 1909 2-way to winLong shot
    +300%Won

    Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX

    Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
  3. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • One off-thesis, half-size straight only; the 90-minute total is directionally consistent with the model lambdas of 1.34 home and 1.10 away.
    • Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; late changes could alter the scoring outlook.
  4. AC Milan NO to win by more than 1.5 goalsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opp-adjusted xG rates are Milan 1.71 for / 1.06 against and Bologna 1.41 for / 1.09 against; 10 xG games each.
    • Serie A current-season home wins by 2+ goals: 17/83 (20.5%), broad competition context, not a Milan-specific estimate.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; the preview lists multiple absences on both sides, and a late XI change could alter the scoring rates.

Questions

Who won Bologna vs. AC Milan?

Bologna won 4-2 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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