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FinalStadio Benito Stirpe · Frosinone
Lecce
1–5Final
Frosinone
Score by period
Team12T
LECC011
FROS235

Top model pick, graded

Won

Lecce over 3.5 total goals 47¢

Why Vig Gap likes it: Movement is not closing the gap: Kalshi over fell from 50% at 9:14am to 46.5% at 9:51am; Polymarket fell from 50.5% at 9:23am to 46.5% at 9:48am.

Vig GapUp 42% return this season · 26 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-9 on this game · −11% return

  1. Lecce over 3.5 total goals2 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsVig Gap, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Vig Gap
    • Movement is not closing the gap: Kalshi over fell from 50% at 9:14am to 46.5% at 9:51am; Polymarket fell from 50.5% at 9:23am to 46.5% at 9:48am.
    • Most likely loss: the match finishes with three or fewer regulation-time goals.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model expected goals total is 4.32 (1.93 home, 2.39 away).
    • Poisson translation of that total gives roughly 63% for at least four goals.
    • The warehouse model explicitly publishes 80.5% for over 2.5, not a direct over-3.5 probability.
  2. Under 3.5 total goals2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Early Whistle
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • 3.43 expected goals versus approximately 3.65 implied by Kalshi's total-goals ladder around 3.5.
    • Pressing inputs are proxies: Frosinone PPDA 9.03/field tilt .542 versus Lecce 13.41/.478.
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates imply 1.62 Frosinone goals and 1.82 Lecce goals, totaling 3.44.
    • A Poisson read from that 3.44 total gives roughly 55% for four goals or fewer.
    • The model's own lambda pair is much higher at 1.94 home and 2.40 away, implying a 4.34-goal total.
  3. Lecce to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLong Haul, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Long Haul
    • Frosinone's 228.9 home-minus-away Elo edge conflicts with the xG-driven away projection; the disagreement creates a speculative price gap.
    • The 2-way contract makes Lecce's 90-minute win the only winning outcome; ProphetX's exact +270 contract is identified by the submitted line ID.
    • No qualifying rest, travel, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shape pillar; this is the desk's one permitted off-thesis leg and is LEAN only.
    Number Earned
    • Model: Lecce win probability 48.5%; discounted to 46% for availability risk.
    • Frosinone allows 2.08 opponent-adjusted xG per match; Lecce allows 1.52.
    • Lecce has 12 listed absences versus one for Frosinone; the lineup-strength gap remains material.
  4. Lecce spread +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live-conditioned Dixon-Coles margin mass gives Lecce +1.5 approximately 84.5%.
    • The -1.5 rung tests the two-goal boundary: Frosinone must win by 2+; a one-goal win still covers.
    • model confirmation gives Frosinone -0.5 at 31.4%; own same-rung directional estimate is within 5 points.
    • No push: a Frosinone win by 2+ loses the contract outright.
  5. Total goals over 2.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Frosinone's last 10 home games average 17.78 shots, 6.11 on target and 2.67 big chances, with a 9.03 PPDA press.
    • Confirmed XI data shows Frosinone in a 4-3-3 against Lecce's 4-3-2-1; the home scheme is front-foot rather than pace-suppressing.
    • Most likely loss: Frosinone's pressure produces territory without finishing and the match ends 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1.
    • A 2.5 total loses on any scoreline with two or fewer goals; finishing variance is substantial.
  6. Both teams to scoreFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

    Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model BTTS Yes probability 77.9% versus Kalshi midpoint 68.5%: 9.4-point edge.
    • Opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.71 for Frosinone and 1.55 for Lecce.
    • Opponent-adjusted xGA is 2.08 for Frosinone and 1.52 for Lecce, supporting two-way defensive vulnerability.
    • Lecce's away form is 4-0-6 with 10 goals scored across 10 away matches.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Total Goals (Regular Time) over 3.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX TouchlineUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pillar 1/3: Alvini's high-press transition plan versus Di Francesco's unsettled press is confirmed by PPDA 9.03, 13.41 and field tilt 54.2%, 47.8%.
    • Alvini's latest 4-4 was reported as end-to-end and wide open; Di Francesco admitted Lecce's first-half shape failed against outside-in pressing and said the second-half setup pressed more aggressively.
    • Confirmed XIs were posted at 9:40 AM; Lecce makes four changes from the Juventus XI while Frosinone makes three from the Atalanta XI, adding structural volatility.
    • Most likely loss: Di Francesco's revised setup stabilizes Lecce's buildout and Frosinone's press becomes a possession grind, producing 0-2 or 1-1.
  2. Over 3.5 Total Goals
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles goal mass gives approximately 62.6% for 4+ goals versus ProphetX 50.5¢ (-102; 50.5% implied).
    • Opponent-adjusted xG supports the tail: Frosinone 1.71 for/2.08 against; Lecce 1.55 for/1.52 against.
    • ProphetX lists no BTTS-shaped market; totals only tonight. Captured sharp total context is approximately 50.7% over 3.5.
    • Most likely loss is 0-3 goals; the model leaves approximately 37.4% under 3.5.
  3. Lecce wins 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles 1H probabilities are Frosinone 28.8%, tie 32.1%, Lecce 39.2%.
    • Lecce 1H is 21.5c at mid, equal to the full-time Lecce contract; a 1H win price should be lower.
    • Serie A first-half share measured at 99 of 215 goals, 46.0%, across 67 fixtures with goals.
    • The lambdas use 9-10 xG-covered matches; the sample is limited.
  4. Lecce spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are 1.93 Frosinone and 2.39 Lecce; the low-score distribution gives Lecce roughly 30% to win by 2+.
    • Recent 50 same-season Serie A matches put the away-margin-2+ proxy at 14/50 (28%); integer margin mass is lumpy.
    • The model complement is about 70%; draws, one-goal wins, and Frosinone wins are the dominant failure outcomes.
  5. Frosinone to win
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    Vig GapDown 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The three-way Pinnacle devig includes Frosinone, Lecce and draw; the exchange markets are the matching three-way full-time result.
    • Recent movement direction is unverified: the dedicated history read was still loading for both venues, so this remains Tier 2 rather than Tier 1.
    • Most likely loss: Frosinone fails to win, with either a draw or Lecce victory settling this claim No.
  6. Lecce winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected goal rates are Frosinone 1.93 and Lecce 2.39, supporting the away-side projection.
    • The cohort maps directly: global Lecce YES is the same 90-minute Lecce-win outcome as Kalshi's Lecce contract.
    • Pinnacle's live three-way line favors Frosinone (-130) and prices Lecce at +345, a major disagreement with the warehouse projection.
  7. Total goals over 3.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • lambdas 1.93 + 2.39 imply 4.32 expected goals; a Poisson-style read puts Over 3.5 near 62.6%.
    • Fresh ProphetX board read at 9:41 AM PDT confirms the exact contract and price; no sportsbook or other exchange is the placement venue.
    • no qualifying rest, travel, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shape pillar; this is capped at LEAN and half stake.
  8. US Lecce correct score 2-1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Home is Frosinone; model key 1-2 maps to the exact contract “US Lecce wins 2-1.”
    • Top-k rank 1. Coverage is 9 home xG games and 10 away xG games; minimum coverage is 9.
    • NO REFERENCE. Correct-score contracts lack a sharp-book price; comparison is direct to the fitted score probability.
    • The game is live at 1-0 in the 31st minute; the warehouse score distribution is not state-conditioned.

Questions

Who won Lecce vs. Frosinone?

Frosinone won 5-1 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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