FinalStadio Giuseppe Meazza · Milano
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| INT | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| AC | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 3.5 34¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Opponent-adjusted xG gives AC Milan 1.44 expected goals ((1.59 xGF + 1.30 Inter xGA)/2) and Inter 2.06 ((3.02 xGF + 1.10 Milan xGA)/2), totaling 3.50.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-5 on this game · +26% return
- Total goals over 3.5+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Early WhistleWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Opponent-adjusted xG gives AC Milan 1.44 expected goals ((1.59 xGF + 1.30 Inter xGA)/2) and Inter 2.06 ((3.02 xGF + 1.10 Milan xGA)/2), totaling 3.50.
- Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed, and the feed shows substantial roster changes and absences that may alter attack or defense.
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted rates produce lambdas of 1.44 home and 2.06 away, totaling 3.50.
- The feature model's own lambda pair is 1.48 and 2.39, implying an even higher 54% over-3.5 rate.
- Both projected XIs are expected rather than confirmed; the lineup feed was last observed October 28.
- Over 2.5 total goals+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model goal expectation is 3.87: AC Milan 1.48 and Inter 2.39.
- Inter's recent rolling profile averages 22.1 shots and 7.6 shots on target; Milan averages 11.3 and 4.8.
- The four recorded head-to-head meetings average only 1.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50%.
Deep Book- Board as_of_pt 2026-10-31 11:53:10 AM PDT. Confirmed XIs were posted at 11:51 AM PDT. LEAN; half size.
- Pinnacle is off-line at 2.8 goals (+112 Over); there is no same-rung sharp confirmation for 2.5.
- Inter −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Historical check and directional coherence pass: Inter are 8-1-0 in their last nine Serie A matches; AC Milan are 5-3-1, with confirmed XIs.
- Inter's confirmed XI is without Lautaro Martinez, while both clubs have substantial personnel turnover; the lambda inputs may overstate current attacking strength.
- Inter @ AC Milan both teams to score+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Novig
Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 days - Over 2.5 goals+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XIs posted 12:00, 12:01 PM PDT; starting-XI attack xG totals 4.63 (Inter 2.23, AC Milan 2.39).
- The exact ProphetX Over 2.5 capture stayed 53.7¢ at 11:59 and 12:11 PDT, before and after the XI.
- Inter start Marcus Thuram (0.63 xG/90); AC Milan start Gonçalo Ramos (0.53 xG/90) and Christian Pulisic (0.24 xG/90).
- Most likely loss is Lautaro Martínez's absence suppressing Inter's attack and the match finishing with two or fewer goals.
- Inter spread −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's same 0.5 spread rung was AC Milan +0.5 -119; context only, placement is ProphetX.
- Both lineups were listed as expected in the warehouse preview, although the feed context showed a refreshed 11:51am list; late XI changes remain possible.
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- Inter Milano wins 3-1−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; home is AC Milan and away is Inter. Model key 1-3 maps to the contract “Inter Milano wins 3-1”.
- NO REFERENCE; exact-score prices are not independently sharp-referenced. Model coverage is 10 xG games per side.
- The top-k is truncated, and live contracts are not normalized into a venue distribution.
- Total goals over 2.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Both Teams To Score+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; 10-match xG sample each: AC Milan scores read 76.4%, Inter 87.3%, yielding BTTS-YES about 66.9%.
- Opp-adjusted inputs: Milan attack 1.59 vs Inter defense 1.30; Inter attack 3.02 vs Milan defense 1.10.
- Symmetric BTTS-heavy setup: both sides clear a 75% scoring probability, though Inter is the stronger attacking side.
- AC Milan still fails to score in roughly 23.6% of the per-side read; one clean sheet loses YES.
- Inter spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- DC inputs are AC Milan 1.48 home xG and Inter 2.39 away xG; 10 xG matches each, with 3 rest days apiece.
- Current Serie A sample has 21 of 90 matches decided by an away-side 2+ margin; Inter's own sample is 5 of 9, supporting a blended 31% estimate.
- Season-wide Serie A proxy is only 23.3% for the relevant 2+ away-margin tail, close to the 25¢ venue price.
- Inter to win−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inter’s opponent-adjusted away xG is 3.02 versus AC Milan’s home 1.59.
- Inter leads recent venue-adjusted form 22 points from 10 away matches to Milan’s 13 home points.
- Derby draw probability is 19.9%, and a draw loses the three-way moneyline contract.
Questions
Who won Inter vs. AC Milan?
AC Milan won 3-1 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.