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FinalStadio Renato Dall'Ara · Bologna
Monza
1–2Final
Bologna
Score by period
Team12T
MONZ101
BOLO112

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 2.5 Total Goals 52¢

Why Two Nil Pairs likes it: Opponent-adjusted xG: Bologna home 1.47 for / 1.12 against; Monza away 1.40 for / 1.61 against. Both sides have three rest days.

Two Nil PairsDown 6% this season · 368 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-5 on this game · +6% return

  1. Over 2.5 Total Goals3 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Coaches Corner +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Two Nil Pairs
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Bologna home 1.47 for / 1.12 against; Monza away 1.40 for / 1.61 against. Both sides have three rest days.
    • Under 2.5 wins; the model assigns 46.2% to two or fewer goals, making this a small projection edge.
    Coaches Corner
    • Palladino's 3-2-5 build-up uses high wing-backs and third-man rotations to stretch back-three opponents.
    • Juric's aggressive man-oriented 3-4-2-1 creates transition space; Monza have conceded 22 goals in 10 matches.
    • Two back-three systems can cancel into a slow, low-event first half.
    Deep Book
    • LEAN. The price is -108, within the -250 to +300 band; board as_of_pt 2026-10-31T06:21:03-07:00.
    • Most likely loss: 0, 1, or 2 goals; the model assigns Under 2.5 a 46.2% probability.
  2. Monza to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +430 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Monza's opponent-adjusted xG attack is 1.40 away; Bologna's is 1.47 at home, a much narrower attacking gap than the moneyline implies.
    • Bologna are only 3-3-4 at home; Monza are 3-1-6 away but have scored 17 in 10 away matches.
    • Monza's away record is still losing, with a -5 goal difference across 10 matches.
    Deep Book
    • the 2-way contract pushes on a draw, unlike the 90-minute three-way contract.
    • LEAN only: 4.02x size ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  3. Monza +0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Bologna 1.70 and Monza 1.13 with rho -0.05.
    • Pinnacle same-rung devigs to roughly 43.9% for Monza +0.5 (+122); ProphetX offers 43.86c at +128, while my fair price is materially higher.
    • Bologna's recent five-game margin is +0.6 versus Monza's -0.2, supporting the favorite more than the model edge does.
  4. Bologna under 0.5 goalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.50 xG/90 gap: expected starter Samuel Mbangula (.647) was replaced by confirmed starter Nicolò Cambiaghi (.146).
    • Lambda projection: Bologna 1.70 before news, 1.20 after subtracting the attacking share.
    • Timing passed: last Kalshi change 2026-10-31 11:25 UTC / 04:25 PDT; lineup news arrived 06:04 PDT.
    • The lambda subtraction assumes Mbangula's xG share transfers one-for-one; that model is uncertain.
  5. Monza regular-time spread +0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • exact-contract comparison is ProphetX's regular-time -0.5 spread rung; captured sportsbook spreads are off-line.
    • Confirmed XIs were posted at 6:21am PDT, before this 6:25am price read.
    • Features were computed through 10/28, so the confirmed XI and current absences may not be fully represented in the historical model.
  6. Total goals under 3.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bologna 1.54 expected goals and Monza 1.26, using opponent-adjusted xG; total pre-match mean 2.80.
    • At the live 1-1 score around 39', scaling the 2.80 pre-match mean over the remaining 51 minutes gives a 3.59 projected final total.
    • Two goals have already arrived before halftime, and a third goal can make the under vulnerable while a fourth loses it.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Bologna to win
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • All four Bologna qualifiers were positive on the MONTH soccer cross-check; official lineups were confirmed at 6:21am before the final venue read.
    • Serie A samples for the four qualifiers are only 41-61 each, so coverage is partial and below the 100-sample Tier 1 bar.
  2. Both Teams To Score
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bologna scoring read 76.7%: lambda≈1.46 from oppadj xGF 1.47 versus Monza xGA 1.45; 10 xG matches.
    • Monza scoring read 72.9%: lambda≈1.31 from oppadj xGF 1.40 versus Bologna xGA 1.21; 10 xG matches.
    • match xG sample is useful but still calibration-sensitive; one blank side loses the contract.
  3. Bologna spread NO at 1.5Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model λ is Bologna 1.70, Monza 1.13; Dixon-Coles cross-check implies Bologna by 2+ about 27.5%, so NO about 72.5%.
    • Opp-adjusted inputs: Bologna attack 1.47 / Monza defense 1.61; Monza attack 1.40 / Bologna defense 1.12.
    • Serie A's last 100 finals put 22% at level, 28% at +1, and 15% at +2; the mass supports fading the >1.5 rung.
    • Only 10 xG matches per side; the model-versus-price gap is modest and the distribution is high variance.

Questions

Who won Monza vs. Bologna?

Bologna won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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