FinalDacia Arena · Udine
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROMA | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| UDIN | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 2.5 63¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Roma's 11.38 PPDA and 0.66 field tilt indicate stronger pressing and territorial control than Udinese's 13.8 and 0.53.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 13-0 on this game · +103% return
- Total goals over 2.5+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Early WhistleWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Roma's 11.38 PPDA and 0.66 field tilt indicate stronger pressing and territorial control than Udinese's 13.8 and 0.53.
- Roma's attack produces 2.04 xG per match versus Udinese's 1.14; Udinese's xG differential is -0.69.
- Roma are without Dybala and Koné, while Udinese are missing several attackers and defensive options.
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted model rates: Udinese 1.05 and Roma 2.71 goals; combined lambda 3.76.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 3 at -105/-107, independently anchoring this as a high-total matchup.
- Both projected lineups are still expected, not confirmed; goalkeeper and attacking-role changes could reduce scoring.
- Roma spread −1+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Team Sheet PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- Dixon-Coles lambdas 2.71 Roma and 1.05 Udinese, with dc_rho -0.05, give 51.6% Roma wins by 2+.
- The whole-goal -1 rung pushes on a one-goal Roma win: estimated push 20.4%; loss 28.0%.
- Roma wins by exactly one often enough to push, not win; pushes return stake and are excluded from the 51.6% win probability.
Team Sheet Pairs- Confirmed 9:11 AM PDT XIs: Roma's XI attack quality is 2.67 xG versus Udinese's 1.46; ratings favor Roma 7.01 to 6.86.
- Roma -1 was -108 in the 9:10 AM pre-lineup capture; current ProphetX is -105, so the board did not reprice toward the Roma team-sheet edge.
- Most likely outright loss is a draw or Udinese result; Roma winning by exactly one regular-time goal is a push, not a win.
- Roma to win+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Roma's away form is 5-4-1 with a +10 goal difference; Udinese are 2-2-6 at home.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Roma 2.02 for versus Udinese's 1.18.
- Roma have five listed absences, including Paulo Dybala, Manu Koné, and Mile Svilar.
Number Earned- 72.0% independent Dixon-Coles win estimate implies a fair -258 line, or 72¢ on an exchange.
- Roma lead opponent-adjusted xG 2.02 to 1.18 and Elo 1799 to 1498.
- Model calibration is unvalidated and its features were computed through October 28.
- Roma −1 (Regular Time)+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX TouchlineUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pillar 1/3: Gasperini's press-and-territory scheme is the mismatch, Roma's 11.38 away PPDA and 65.8% field tilt beat Udinese's 13.80 and 53.3%.
- Pillar 2: Roma's confirmed XI makes five changes from the October 27 Cagliari XI ahead of Tuesday's Champions League match, while Udinese's makeshift back line lacks Alaba, Solet and Zanoli.
- Most likely loss: Runjaic's compact 3-4-2-1 slows Roma's buildup; a one-goal Roma win pushes rather than wins -1.
- Over 2.5 goals+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles goal means total 3.75: Udinese 1.05, Roma 2.71.
- Three goals are required; a 2-0 or 1-1 result loses.
- Roma win+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Elo differential is -301.2 from Udinese's home perspective; Roma's underlying rating is materially stronger.
- Recent form: Roma 3-1-1 with +1.4 margin over five; Udinese 0-4-1 with -1.4.
- Roma's XI remains expected, not confirmed; Dybala, Pellegrini, Koné and Svilar are listed out.
Show all 10 picks
- Match over 2.5 total goals+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model expected goals total 3.75, led by Roma's 2.71 away-goal expectation.
- Roma average 18.6 shots and 5.8 on target across the recent window; Udinese concede 1.82 expected goals per home match.
- The exchange price leaves a meaningful gap to the warehouse total-goals estimate.
- The head-to-head file averages only 2.25 goals, with both teams scoring in just 25% of four meetings.
- Both Teams To Score+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Udinese scoring read 71.9%: λ 1.27 from 1.18 oppadj xGF and Roma 1.36 xGA; 10-match coverage.
- Roma scoring read 85.4%: λ 1.92 from 2.02 oppadj xGF and Udinese 1.82 xGA; 10-match coverage.
- Symmetric BTTS profile: both sides clear 70% to score; independent product is 61.4%, not a total-goals proxy.
- Udinese can blank despite the 71.9% estimate; its 1.14 raw xGF is the weaker attacking input.
- Roma spread YES 2.5+400%Won
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Udinese 1.05 and Roma 2.71; Poisson cross-check gives roughly 31% for Roma by 3+.
- Opp-adjusted inputs support the matchup: Udinese 1.18 xGF/1.86 xGA; Roma 2.02 xGF/1.24 xGA.
- Recent Serie A sample (213 matches) is lumpy: 0 margin 22.1%, +1 28.2%, -1 13.6%, +2 13.2%, -2 9.4%.
- Roma's projected XI is not confirmed; Dybala, Pellegrini, Koné and Svilar are listed out.
- Roma −1.5 spread+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Board as_of_pt 2026-10-31 7:23:15 AM PDT. The spread is the only board with a qualifying directional size imbalance.
- Flow is 8.2x, below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; this is LEAN at half size.
Questions
Who won Roma vs. Udinese?
Roma won 5-2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.