FinalStadio Artemio Franchi · Firenze
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATAL | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| FIOR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAtalanta +0.5 spread 60¢
Why Two Goal Cushion likes it: The +0.5 rung tests the lumpy 0 boundary: only a Fiorentina win by 1+ loses; no push is possible.
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-8 on this game · −67% return
- Match under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 0.56 under price implies roughly a 3.4-goal Poisson mean, above the xG projection; this is a PROJECTION edge.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed; the slate lists major personnel changes and absences on both sides.
- Atalanta +0.5 spread+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The +0.5 rung tests the lumpy 0 boundary: only a Fiorentina win by 1+ loses; no push is possible.
- Atalanta have eight listed absences and Fiorentina four; confirmed XIs include substantial roster turnover.
- Match total under 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted blend sets Fiorentina 1.48 and Atalanta 1.49 goals, a 2.98 combined rate.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 3 goals at -106/-106, providing the required non-Kalshi total reference.
- Warehouse model rates are higher at 1.61/1.60, but its 3.21 total still leaves a one-goal cushion at 3.5.
- The warehouse model makes over 2.5 62.3%, signaling more scoring risk than the opponent-adjusted blend.
- 1H goals scored over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 24 of 43 recent Serie A goals came before halftime: 55.8%; the measured split implies 1H mean 1.82.
- The full-match Kalshi ladder fits mean 3.26 goals; the clean 1H ladder fits Poisson mean 1.50: a 0.32-goal split violation.
- Dixon-Coles total mean is 3.21, close to the full-ladder mean and pointing to the 1H ladder as the outlier.
- The split sample is 11 fixtures and 43 timed goals; 24 first-half goals may regress.
- Fiorentina to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 46% last 7 days - Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG is Fiorentina 1.35 for / 1.43 against and Atalanta 1.56 / 1.62; gp_with_xg is 9 and 10.
- ProphetX's full event board listed no BTTS-shaped market, so this is a totals-only read; the adjacent 3.5 rung was also inspected.
- The model's complementary P(3+) is approximately 62.3%; any three-goal game loses this ticket.
Show all 10 picks
- BTTS NO−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fiorentina scoring read ≈78.2% (λ≈1.53 from 1.35 oppadj xGF and Atalanta 1.70 xGA).
- Atalanta scoring read ≈79.4% (λ≈1.58 from 1.56 oppadj xGF and Fiorentina 1.60 xGA).
- Independent product gives BTTS-YES 62.1%, hence BTTS-NO 37.9%; both sides score freely, not an asymmetric NO case.
- no independent sharp BTTS price is exposed; this non-main market is compared against its own Kalshi quote, so band is capped at LEAN.
- Atalanta +0.5+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Elo favors Atalanta by 60 points; opponent-adjusted xG differentials are -0.08 Fiorentina and -0.06 Atalanta.
- Both XIs remain expected: Atalanta has six listed absences and Fiorentina four; projected lists are not confirmed lineups.
- Atalanta wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Serie A 2026 has 21 away-by-2+ results in 88 finals (23.9%); broad league evidence supports concentrated integer-margin mass.
- Atalanta’s 18.7% rung probability is derived from λ/Dixon-Coles, not directly published as a -1.5 model output; the estimate could be wrong.
- Atalanta to win−100%Lost
Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atalanta leads the Elo matchup 1639.7 to 1579.7; home-minus-away Elo is -60.07.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Atalanta 1.56 to Fiorentina's 1.35.
- Fiorentina's home form is 3-1-6 with -4 goal difference; Atalanta's away form is 4-1-5 with -1.
- Both projected lineups remain expected, with six Atalanta absences listed and no confirmed XI.
Questions
Who won Atalanta vs. Fiorentina?
Fiorentina won 2-2 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.