FinalStadio Ennio Tardini · Parma
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| UDIN | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PARM | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-6 on this game · −100% return
- Udinese regular-time spread −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles build: λ Udinese 1.36, λ Parma 1.29, ρ -0.05; Udinese win probability is 38.1%.
- Only 9 xG matches per side underpin the estimate; the 3.5-point model/reference gap could be sampling noise.
- Match over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates imply Parma 1.41 and Udinese 1.38 goals; combined λ≈2.79 gives 52.8% over 2.5.
- Pinnacle's fresh sharp total is 2.25, over -102/under -110, a modest over-side anchor.
- Pinnacle is priced at 2.25, not Kalshi's 2.5 threshold, so the sharp anchor is not a direct like-for-like comparison.
- Over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Parma scoring read 75.5% from 0.92 opp-adjusted xGF versus Udinese's 1.89 xGA; Udinese read 75.1% from 1.16 versus Parma's 1.62.
- Symmetric case: neither side faces a genuinely restrictive defense; both have a plausible scoring path despite Parma's lower attacking rate.
- The edge is tiny: a 56.7% estimate against a 56¢ entry leaves variance dominant.
- Udinese wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Dixon, Coles matchup lambdas are Parma 1.29 xG and Udinese 1.36 xG; Poisson goal-difference tail gives Udinese 2+ goals about 17.8%.
- Recent same-season Serie A sample: away teams won by 2+ in 14/63 (22.2%); this is noisy league-wide context, not a Udinese-specific rate.
- The 17.8% estimate is a derived lambda-based tail, not a directly posted Dixon, Coles -1.5 probability; the model's -0.5 AH probability is not a comparable rung.
- Parma to win0%Push
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- Udinese to win−100%Lost
Taken at +170 on BetMGM
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse model gives Udinese a 38.1% away-win probability versus roughly 35.3% devigged from Pinnacle.
- Udinese lead the matchup in adjusted xG for per match, 1.16 to Parma's 0.92.
- Udinese rate better in Elo, 1497.8 to 1442.7, despite Parma's home venue.
- The sharp-market anchor disagrees: its fair price is about +183, so the value is model-dependent and thin.
Questions
Who won Udinese vs. Parma?
Parma won 0-0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.