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FinalMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore · Reggio Emilia
Lazio
6–2Final
Sassuolo
Score by period
Team12T
LAZI426
SASS202

How the picks did

Models went 0-6 on this game · −100% return

  1. NO on Over 1.5 1H goals scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Reconciled Poisson P(1H goals ≤1) ≈73.6%, versus 63¢ to buy NO on Over 1.5.
    • The full-match ladder is clean (six live rungs); the first-half ladder is clean (three). Minimum xG coverage is 9 fixtures.
    • The split estimate uses only 10 recent league fixtures; 34.5% is a small, volatile sample.
  2. Sassuolo +1.5 (NO: Lazio does not win by more than 1.5 goals)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 76¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG inputs: Sassuolo 1.56 for / 1.36 against (10 matches); Lazio 1.45 for / 1.30 against (9).
    • Lambdas 1.51, 1.47 imply Lazio by 2+ about 17.4%; Dixon-Coles low-score correction does not change those qualifying score cells.
    • Same-season Serie A sample: absolute margin 0 in 13/60, 1 in 23, 2 in 16, 3+ in 8; backs a lumpy rather than smooth margin ladder.
    • At 76¢ NO, a Lazio win by 2+ goals loses; model estimates that event at 17.4%.
  3. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected total 2.84: Sassuolo 1.43 (home xGF 1.56, Lazio away xGA 1.30; 10/9 xG games) + Lazio 1.41 (away xGF 1.45, Sassuolo home xGA 1.36; 9/10).
    • Only 9 xG-backed matches for Lazio, below the 12-match upper coverage tier; the 0.16-goal projected-versus-derived-market gap is modest.
  4. Sassuolo winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon, Coles expected goals are nearly even: Sassuolo 1.51, Lazio 1.47.
    • Confirmed XIs; Sassuolo start Berardi, while Lazio’s listed absences include Rovella and Marusic.
    • Kalshi shows 25¢ for Sassuolo YES; the comparable FanDuel price was +270.
    • Lazio’s recent form is stronger: 7-1-1 in the last nine, against Sassuolo’s 3-4-3 in ten.
  5. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Sassuolo scoring ≈75.0% (xG-for 1.47 vs Lazio xG-against 1.30; 10-match coverage); Lazio ≈76.1% (1.41 vs 1.45; 9-match coverage).
    • Independent-Poisson combination gives BTTS YES ≈57.1%, hence NO ≈42.9%; this is a fairly symmetric scoring outlook, not a weak-attacker/elite-defense case.
    • A goal by both sides defeats NO; expected xG-derived scoring chances are high on both sides.
  6. Sassuolo to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +255 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 38.2% Sassuolo win probability in the matchup-specific Dixon, Coles model; fair price is about +162.
    • The model's expected goals are nearly even: Sassuolo 1.51, Lazio 1.47.
    • At +255, DraftKings' raw break-even is 28.2%, about 10 percentage points below the model estimate.
    • Lazio's listed 10-match form is strong (8-1-1 away); that conflicts with the model's slight Sassuolo lean.

Questions

Who won Lazio vs. Sassuolo?

Lazio won 6-2 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.

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