FinalStadio Pierluigi Penzo · Venezia
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| INT | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| VENE | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonInter wins by more than 1.5 goals 49¢
Why Handicap likes it: opponent-adjusted inputs are Venezia 1.59 xGF/1.69 xGA and Inter 3.13 xGF/1.26 xGA; feature lambdas are 1.49 and 3.80.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-7 on this game · −32% return
- Over 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Two NilWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- Most likely loss path is three or fewer goals; the model assigns about 22.7% to that outcome.
Two Nil- Kalshi over ladder fitted to a Poisson reference gives an implied total ≈3.55; xG projection is about 0.29 goals higher. Pinnacle's 3.5 over +107 / under -118 devigs to ≈47% over, independently consistent with the Kalshi price.
- Over 3.5 loses on 0, 3 goals; Venezia's and Inter's listed lineups are expected, not confirmed, and Lautaro Martínez is listed out.
- Inter @ Venezia both teams to score−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Novig
Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent shots: Venezia 13.56 with 4.11 on target; Inter 23.5 with 8.1 on target.
- Venezia’s opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.69; Inter’s attack projects 3.80 away goals.
- Inter’s opponent-adjusted xGA is a strong 1.26, so Venezia could fail to score.
- Venezia Spread (Regular Time) +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX TouchlineUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pillar 2 rotation: Chivu changed 5 of Inter's 11 starters from the October 25 XI, including Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan and Pio Esposito, after only 3 rest days with the derby three days away.
- Pillar 3 pace/style: Nicola's Venezia is reported at 57.1% possession in a 3-5-2, a natural route to slow a rotated Inter and protect a one-goal margin.
- Official XIs confirm Inter's altered midfield/attack, Sučić, Stanković, Zieliński and Bonny start, while Venezia +1.5 is 50.25¢ against Pinnacle's 52.4% devigged fair.
- Most likely loss: Chivu's rotated structure still controls the match and Inter wins by two; Inter's PPDA 12.80 and field tilt 64.2% exceed Venezia's 13.68 and 51.1%.
- Over 0.5 1H goals scored−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-match Kalshi ladder tail sum is 2.59 goals; all seven rungs are monotone with 1, 2¢ spreads.
- Recent Serie A sample: 46 of 98 goals arrived in the first half across 30 fixtures, a 46.9% share; reconciled 1H mean is 1.22 versus the fitted 1H-ladder mean of 0.56.
- Reconciled Poisson P(1H over 0.5) is 70.3%; Kalshi graded price is 40¢, a 30.3-point gap. Live event data records Venezia scoring at 29'.
- Slate score conflicts with the live timeline and event table: slate showed 0-0 while both live routes show Venezia 1-0 at 29'.
- Inter wins by more than 1.5 goals+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opponent-adjusted inputs are Venezia 1.59 xGF/1.69 xGA and Inter 3.13 xGF/1.26 xGA; feature lambdas are 1.49 and 3.80.
- Dixon-Coles win probability is 78.6%; a lambda goal-difference cross-check gives approximately 63% for Inter margin 2+.
- Pinnacle prices the same Inter -1.5 rung at +106 (48.5% implied); Kalshi's 50¢ is still the preferred actionable price.
- Confirmed lineups omit Lautaro Martínez and Nicolò Barella for Inter, which can reduce finishing and chance creation.
- Match over 3.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates imply about 1.43 Venezia + 2.41 Inter goals (3.84 total).
- Pinnacle’s sharp total is 3.5 (-105 over / -107 under); Kalshi’s neighboring rungs are monotone and the 3.5 contract is actively traded.
- The fixture model’s own rates (1.49 + 3.82) imply a much higher total; rate estimates disagree materially.
Show all 10 picks
- Inter −1.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XIs at 9:40 AM: Inter XI attack xG 2.73 vs Venezia 2.28, a +0.45 gap; XI ratings 6.97 vs 6.80.
- Venezia lose Andrea Adorante (0.83 xG/90 across 10 club matches) and Thierry Correia (0.93 big chances created/90); those absences weaken the home side's sheet.
- Single-leg ProphetX ticket; no parlay tax or cross-game dependency.
- Most likely loss: Inter wins by exactly one goal, which does not cover -1.5; a draw or Venezia result also loses.
- Inter −1.5 spread+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PIT xG projects Inter 3.80 and Venezia 1.49, a 2.32-goal expected margin.
- Opponent-adjusted xG also favors Inter: 3.13 xGF and 1.26 xGA versus Venezia's 1.59 and 1.69.
- Ten-match form shows process outrunning results for Inter: +1.45 xG difference per match versus +0.90 actual goal difference; Venezia is -0.16 xG difference versus -1.10 actual.
- Most likely loss is an Inter one-goal win, especially 2-1, which clears the match result but not -1.5.
- Inter to win+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inter leads the away form sample 7-1-2 with 24 goals; Venezia is 2-0-8 at home with 10 goals.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Inter 3.13 to 1.59, while Inter's adjusted xGA is 1.26.
- Lautaro Martínez and Alessandro Bastoni are listed among Inter's outs; the lineup feed is internally inconsistent on Bastoni.
- Venezia +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board pull as_of_pt 2026-10-28 9:38:18 AM PDT. The real order-flow signal is the Venezia +1.5 spread, not the captured sportsbook price.
- Expected lineups are dated 10/26 and not confirmed; the model is computed through 10/25, so personnel information can move the spread.
Questions
Who won Inter vs. Venezia?
Inter won 2-0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.