Get app
FinalJuventus Stadium · Torino
Napoli
0–2Final
Juventus
Score by period
Team12T
NAPO000
JUV022

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5 50¢

Why ProphetX Touchline likes it: Pillar 3: Juventus' pressing and territory edge, 12.44 PPDA and 60.9% field tilt versus Napoli's 16.20 and 48.1%, supports controlled possession phases.

ProphetX TouchlineDown 4% this season · 23 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 3-11 on this game · −35% return

  1. Total goals over 2.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsTwo Nil, Early Whistle +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opponent pairing gives Juventus 1.54 and Napoli 1.51 expected goals: 3.05 total versus a Kalshi ladder-implied mean near 2.7.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; listed absences and major offseason turnover can change attacking and defensive quality.
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates: Juventus 1.65 xGF / 0.94 xGA; Napoli 2.07 xGF / 1.43 xGA.
    • The full Kalshi ladder is monotone; this rung has 3,971 contracts traded and a 1¢ spread.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed roughly 12 hours out; late attacking or goalkeeper news can move the rate.
    Long Haul
    • warehouse lambdas total 3.10 (1.70 home + 1.40 away), with model_p_over_2_5 at 59.9%.
    • the over moved from 50.0¢ at 8:40 AM to 51.92¢ at 10:54 AM, still below the warehouse projection.
    • Most likely loss: the match produces two or fewer goals, including a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 result.
  2. Both teams to score2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsBoth Sides Dangerous, Both Nets
    Why 2 models like it
    Both Sides Dangerous
    • Opponent-adjusted xGF is 1.65 for Juventus and 2.07 for Napoli, giving both attacks credible underlying support.
    • Keeper form is below expectation for both sides: Juventus -0.70 and Napoli -0.25 goals prevented; big chances average 2.67 and 3.10.
    • Juventus' opponent-adjusted xGA is a strong 0.94, so Napoli could be contained despite its attacking numbers.
    Both Nets
    • Juventus scoring read 83%; Napoli scoring read 78%, using 10-match opponent-adjusted xG samples on each side.
    • Symmetric case: both attacks clear a 1.6 xG-for baseline, while neither opponent defense is a sub-0.8 xG-against unit (Napoli 1.84; Juventus 0.91).
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: the warehouse projection lists both XIs and multiple notable absences; late changes could reduce one side's scoring probability.
  3. Napoli to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +250 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Napoli's opponent-adjusted away xG for is 2.07 per match versus Juventus home 1.65.
    • Napoli leads the pregame Elo rating 1710 to 1696 despite playing away.
    • Juventus' home form is stronger: 18 home-side points versus Napoli's 15 away-side points.
    Number Earned
    • 32.0% own away-win estimate; fair line approximately +213 versus DraftKings +235.
    • Napoli away: 1.93 expected goals per match; Juventus home: 0.91 expected goals against.
    • Both teams have 10 feature-window matches and four rest days with congestion flagged; match variance is high.
  4. Over 2.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Feature model makes over 59.9% versus FanDuel's 54.1% break-even at -118.
    • Spalletti's Juventus back-three switch produced 12 shots on target and allowed five across two recent matches.
    • The tactical 3-4-2-1 puts two attackers behind the striker; Napoli's projected XI is also direct (0.78 directness ratio).
    • Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed; the warehouse lineup snapshot is dated October 29.
  5. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX TouchlineUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pillar 3: Juventus' pressing and territory edge, 12.44 PPDA and 60.9% field tilt versus Napoli's 16.20 and 48.1%, supports controlled possession phases.
    • Pillar 4: after Genoa, Spalletti said Juventus must do “something different”; the expected back-four return was explicitly framed as a defensive-stability adjustment.
    • Napoli lose No.6 Stanislav Lobotka, while Allegri's touchline ban reduces in-match control; both factors favor a less fluid attacking game.
    • Most likely loss: Juventus' press creates an early turnover and Napoli's transition quality turns the match into an open, three-goal game.
  6. Over 2.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's devigged over probability is 50.7%; its over price moved from +100 to -108, directionally agreeing.
    • Both teams' expected XIs include attacking talent, while the model has full form, xG, ratings, and model-probability coverage.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups list substantial absences on both teams; late XI news could materially change the projection.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Draw 2-2Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orientation: home is Juventus and away is Napoli; model key 2-2 maps to Kalshi contract “Draw 2-2”.
    • Reference: NO REFERENCE. Exact-score contracts lack an independent sharp quote; this is a structural model projection.
    • 2-2 requires four total goals; every other final score loses the contract.
  2. Juventus −0.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check provisionally passes: Juventus model xG rate 1.70 versus Napoli 1.40; last-10 margins were +0.8 and -0.3 respectively.
    • Moderate coverage only: both teams have 10 prior xG games, so lambda and dc_rho remain sample-sensitive.
  3. Napoli @ Juventus over 2.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on BetMGM

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The model's expected-goal total is 3.10, with Juventus 1.70 and Napoli 1.40.
    • Recent rolling averages show 11.2 combined shots on target and 5.77 combined big chances created.
    • Napoli's opponent-adjusted away xG for is 2.07, supporting a high-event path.
    • Juventus' opponent-adjusted home xG allowed is only 0.94, a strong under signal.
  4. Juventus over 1.5 spreadLong shot
    +376%Won

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Comparable 60-match Serie A sample has home goal difference ≥2 in 16/60 (26.7%), consistent with lumpy margin mass rather than a smooth ladder.
    • The empirical distribution is competition-wide, not Juventus-Napoli-specific, and 60 matches is a limited sample.

Questions

Who won Napoli vs. Juventus?

Juventus won 2-0 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.