FinalStadio Benito Stirpe · Frosinone
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| TORI | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FROS | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTorino @ Frosinone total goals under 3.5 52¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Frosinone home xGF 1.84 and Torino away xGA 1.53 (10 GP each) blend to 1.69 home goals; Torino away xGF 1.20 and Frosinone home xGA 2.07 blend to 1.64 away goals.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-13 on this game · −66% return
- Over 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Deep Book +1Why 3 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- lambdas Frosinone/Torino 2.03/1.85, dc_rho -0.05; combined expected goals are 3.88.
- opponent-adjusted xG is Frosinone 1.84 for / 2.07 against and Torino 1.20 / 1.53.
- Four or more regular-time goals are required; 3-0, 2-1, and 2-0 all lose despite a strong goal expectation.
Deep Book- Only the total board gives a direct directional signal; Draw YES and Torino +0.5 carry opposing-match-shape size, so this is LEAN.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model expected goals total 3.88, producing a 54.2% Poisson estimate for four or more goals.
- The model gives over 2.5 goals a 74.4% probability, while both teams to score is 73.6%.
- Exactly three goals loses, and the 3.5 line leaves little protection against a 2-1 or 1-2 result.
- Torino +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Fair Price PairsWhy 2 models like it
Two Goal Cushion- No push or stake return is possible at +0.5; the ticket loses if Frosinone wins.
Fair Price Pairs- The main regular-time spread rung is used; Torino covers with either a draw or win, matching the model's away-win plus draw mass.
- Expected XIs are not confirmed; late lineup changes could move the matchup probability.
- Torino to win−100%Lost
Taken at +220 on FanDuel
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model gives Torino a 35.5% away-win probability versus 31.3% implied by FanDuel +220.
- Frosinone has allowed 2.19 home xG per match and 15 goals across 10 home fixtures.
- Frosinone’s home record is 5-2-3 with 25 venue-side points; Torino is 4-1-5 away.
Number Earned- Torino’s opponent-adjusted away xG for is 1.20; Frosinone’s adjusted home xG against is 2.07.
- Frosinone leads the rating and home-form profile, but the model still finds Torino materially live.
- Torino is only 4-1-5 away with a -1 goal difference across those ten matches.
- Over 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Frosinone’s home press (8.66 passes allowed per defensive action) and 0.55 field tilt can force a high-event match.
- Frosinone home xG for/against is 1.76/2.19; Torino away is 1.14/1.51 across 10-match venue splits.
- both XIs posted at 5:10am PT; Frosinone’s 4-2-3-1-ish shape faces Torino’s confirmed two-forward setup.
- Frosinone’s 3 days’ rest and fixture-congestion flag could reduce late attacking intensity.
- Torino spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- rest differential is 5 days for Torino versus 3 for Frosinone, a confirmed 2-day advantage to the away side.
- Confirmed XIs for both teams were posted at 5:10am PT; the market is not being evaluated on an unconfirmed lineup.
- Pinnacle also showed Torino +0.5 at -119; reference-only confirmation of the current rung.
- The rest edge is only two days; travel is unrecorded, grass is neutral, and no aggregate-state pillar is confirmed.
- Torino +0.5 regular-time spread−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
Show all 11 picks
- Torino @ Frosinone total goals under 3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Frosinone home xGF 1.84 and Torino away xGA 1.53 (10 GP each) blend to 1.69 home goals; Torino away xGF 1.20 and Frosinone home xGA 2.07 blend to 1.64 away goals.
- Opp-adjusted xG total is 3.33 goals; a Poisson translation gives about 57.4% for under 3.5, trimmed to 55.5% for model uncertainty.
- PROJECTION; BAND: LEAN. Pinnacle independently posts 3.5, under -110. Tempo is mixed: Frosinone PPDA 8.66/field tilt .549 versus Torino 14.29/.417, so no aggressive secondary adjustment.
- Both teams have only 10 xG-covered matches, below the 12-match top tier; the xG estimate may be schedule-sensitive.
- Both teams to score−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi
Both Sides DangerousDown 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model BTTS probability is 73.6%, about 4.1 points above the 69.5% market midpoint.
- Frosinone's opponent-adjusted attack is 1.84 xGF per match; Torino's is 1.20.
- Both defenses allow 1.5 goals per match; adjusted xGA is 2.07 for Frosinone and 1.53 for Torino.
- Both XIs and goalkeepers remain expected, not official; Palmisani and Perri are projected starters.
- Both Teams To Score NO+223%Won
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Frosinone scoring read 81.3%: 1.84 oppadj xGF versus Torino's 1.51 xGA, with 10 xG matches each.
- Torino scoring read 81.6%: 1.20 oppadj xGF versus Frosinone's 2.19 xGA, with 10 xG matches each.
- Symmetric profile: both sides score freely; blended BTTS-YES estimate is 66.4%, making NO 33.6%.
- Both scoring probabilities are high, so one early goal or finishing swing can defeat the position.
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days - Torino wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambdas are Frosinone 2.03 and Torino 1.85; opp-adjusted inputs are 1.84/2.07 and 1.20/1.53, with 10 xG games each.
- Serie A's 93-match distribution had 16 draws, 35 absolute one-goal margins, 26 absolute two-goal margins, and 16 margins of 3+; Torino produced 13 wins by 2 and 9 by 3+.
- Only 10 xG matches per side makes the early-season projection thin; the 18.7% estimate could be wrong.
Questions
Who won Torino vs. Frosinone?
Frosinone won 2-0 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.