FinalStadio Diego Armando Maradona · Napoli
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROMA | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| NAPO | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals over 2.5 53¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Tempo cross-check: Roma PPDA 10.29 and field tilt .636; Napoli PPDA 16.68 and field tilt .510, a modest secondary over nudge.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-5 on this game · +3% return
- Roma to win0%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Snapp Decision of the Day +2Why 4 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- Confirmed XIs posted at 8:20 AM; both teams have 11 starters, 10 known profiles in the 10-match XI-quality read, and fixture xG coverage is true with 10 matches.
- Roma's confirmed XI rates 7.00 versus Napoli's 6.86, with top-XI xG 1.00 versus 0.52; the personnel read favors Roma despite the venue's near-even quote.
- Most likely loss: a draw or Napoli win; 2-way moneyline has no draw protection.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Warehouse model makes Roma a 54.8% winner versus roughly 35.5% devigged from the Pinnacle three-way market.
- Roma are 6-1-3 away with a +16 goal difference across the preview's 10-match away sample.
- The 54.8% estimate is a warehouse model, not an independent manual projection; the market strongly disagrees.
Fair Price Pairs- The model's raw away-win probability is used because a 2-way Roma contract loses on both a draw and a Napoli win; no draw renormalization.
- Most likely loss: the match draws or Napoli wins; both outcomes lose the 2-way Roma contract.
Number Earned- Roma's away profile is 6-3-1 with a 24-8 goal difference; Napoli are 4-1-5 at home with 15-14.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Roma: 2.08 for / 0.89 against versus Napoli's 1.94 / 1.35.
- Pinnacle's devigged Roma probability is only 35.9%, a major disagreement with the warehouse model.
- Match total goals over 2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Tempo cross-check: Roma PPDA 10.29 and field tilt .636; Napoli PPDA 16.68 and field tilt .510, a modest secondary over nudge.
- Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; late absences could materially change chance creation.
- AS Roma spread +1.5+18%Won
Taken at 85¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle prices the same rung Roma +1.5 at -900; ProphetX is materially softer.
- Half-goal line cannot push; every Napoli win by 2+ is a full loss.
- Over 2.5 goals+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
ParallaxDown 60% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's live -106/-106 total devigs to 50.0% for over 2.5.
- ProphetX offers over 2.5 at +140, 41.67¢ implied, an 8.33-point gap.
- At 0-0 after 24 minutes, roughly 66 minutes remain for the sharp-reference over case to matter.
- The match is already live, and Pinnacle's unchanged 2.5 line may be stale relative to the game state.
- Roma +0.5 regular-time spread+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 days - Game total over 2.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined xG profile is strong: Napoli 1.80 xG for and 1.74 against; Roma 2.13 for and 1.02 against per match.
- Pinnacle's current sharp reference favors Over 2.5 at -127, agreeing with the projection direction.
- Kalshi's contract mid moved from 51.5¢ to 54.5¢ before kickoff; movement runs with the over.
- The model still assigns 36.9% to Under 2.5; a low-event match loses this ticket.
Show all 11 picks
- AS Roma wins 2-0−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Napoli, away is Roma; model key 0-2 maps to the contract “AS Roma wins 2-0”.
- Expected lineups are unconfirmed; Napoli lists five outs and Roma four as of the latest preview.
- Over 2.5 total goals+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model lambdas total 3.25 goals: Napoli 1.24 and Roma 2.01.
- Roma average 2.13 expected goals for away and 17.4 shots per match over the recent 10-game window.
- Kalshi's 2.5-goal contract has more than 7,800 lifetime contracts traded and a one-cent spread.
- Napoli's recent home scoring is only 15 goals in 10 matches, and the teams' four-match head-to-head sample averages 2.0 total goals.
- Both Teams To Score+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION / symmetric case: Napoli scoring read 75.7%; Roma scoring read 81.9%, with both attacks strong against the opponent's defensive xG.
- Coverage is 10 xG matches for each side; opp-adjusted xGF is Napoli 1.94 and Roma 2.08 per match.
- Napoli's 1.74 home xG-against and Roma's 1.02 away xG-against are blended into the side reads; defensive venue splits add model uncertainty.
- Roma 2-way to win0%Push
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days - Roma spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Roma vs. Napoli?
Napoli won 3-3 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.