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FinalStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Como
Sassuolo
0–2Final
Como
Score by period
Team12T
SASS000
COMO022

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match under 3.5 total goals 52¢

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-10 on this game · −6% return

  1. Total goals under 3.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsOpen Play, Long Haul
    Why 2 models like it
    Open Play
    • Fair total 2.97 goals: matchup blend gives Como 1.52 and Sassuolo 1.45 expected goals.
    • 10 xG games each supports the moderate coverage tier; the build sits below ProphetX's 3.5 rung.
    • Only 10 xG games per side; this moderate-tier estimate has a wider error bar than deep-season coverage.
    Long Haul
    • no qualifying Long Haul decay pillar; lambdas 1.64 + 1.55 imply 3.18 goals and roughly 60.6% for 0, 3 goals.
    • Pinnacle also lists under 3.5 at -111; sportsbook context only, ProphetX is the placement venue.
    • Both XIs remain expected rather than confirmed, so late rotation or an attacking lineup can invalidate the projection.
  2. Match under 3.5 total goals
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
  3. Sassuolo +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Como have only 3 rest days and are congested after a Champions League match three days earlier.
    • Sassuolo have 8 rest days; that supports Aquilani's 4-3-3 pressing and midfield rotation late.
    • Current Como model form is stronger, but the tactical fatigue profile favors a narrow result rather than a two-goal home win.
    • Como's possession advantage and 61.6% warehouse home-win model can still produce a multi-goal margin.
  4. Sassuolo +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Same directional flow appears on Sassuolo 2-way moneyline (12.1x) and Sassuolo +1.5 (4.7x).
    • Pinnacle has Sassuolo on the same directional side at +544 in the 3-way market; the rung is not directly comparable.
    • ProphetX price is +121 American, equivalent to 45.25 cents; band: RECOMMENDED.
    • The +1 offer is 62.4% of total depth, not a single-price wall; 3 levels can still reprice.
  5. Draw to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

    ParallaxDown 60% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi history held roughly 19.5, 20¢ for the past hour; no 15% relative decay toward the reference.
    • The sharp reference favors the draw over the live venue quote with 143 minutes until kickoff.
    • A draw loses if either Como or Sassuolo wins; three-way soccer outcomes are inherently high variance.
  6. Under 2.5 Total Goals
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Como: oppadj xGF 1.68 / xGA 1.31; Sassuolo: oppadj xGF 1.59 / xGA 1.36; coverage is 10 gp_with_xg for both sides.
    • ProphetX +235 converts to 3.35 decimal; its over 2.5 counterpart is -250 (71.43¢), roughly a 3.69-goal plain-Poisson expectation versus the model's 3.18.
    • ProphetX's full event board was checked this wake: no BTTS-shaped market existed, so this is totals-only.
    • The model itself makes over 2.5 the more likely result at 61.6%; the most likely ticket loss is 3 or more goals.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Sassuolo wins 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

    Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi prices Sassuolo's 1H win at 16.5c mid versus 14.5c for its full-time win; the shorter window should not be more likely.
    • Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; Como lists 7 out and Sassuolo 4 out.
  2. Sassuolo spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
  3. Sassuolo Calcio wins 2-1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The scoreline is third in the fitted top-k; lambdas are 1.64 home and 1.55 away.
    • Coverage is 10 matches for each team; the 10 surviving quotes have a 64.5¢ mid-price sum.
    • Expected, not confirmed, XIs: Como lists 7 out and Sassuolo 4 out.
  4. Total goals over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 61.6% for over 2.5 and 3.18 combined expected goals from the two lambdas.
    • Recent expected goals average 1.70 for Como and 1.52 for Sassuolo.
    • The 3.5 over is priced -105, requiring roughly 51.2% before accounting for model edge.
    • Como's Moise Kean is listed out, and both clubs have substantial absences.
  5. Sassuolo to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +490 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes Sassuolo a 35.8% away winner versus 16.9% implied at +490.
    • Expected goals are nearly even: Como 1.64, Sassuolo 1.55.
    • Como has seven listed absences; Sassuolo has four, with both XIs confirmed at 5:20am PT.
    • Como's home form is 6-2-2 with 20 points from 10 matches.
  6. Both Teams To Score NO
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home scoring read 78.4%; away scoring read 76.9%; independent product gives BTTS-YES 60.3%, NO 39.7%.
    • Both sides carry strong scoring probabilities; one goal each loses the NO contract.
  7. Sassuolo spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • no qualifying Long Haul pillar: grass surface, travel and aggregate state are unrecorded; expected XIs mean the 8-vs-3 rest gap is not priced as a decay edge.
    • lambdas 1.64 home / 1.55 away imply approximately 79.7% for Sassuolo +1.5; model coverage is complete with 10 minimum xG matches.
    • Single-leg lean at half size; it does not contradict the existing under-3.5 total position.
    • Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; rotation, especially for the away side, could materially change the spread projection.
  8. Sassuolo wins by more than 2.5 goalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 2¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Inputs: Como home opp-adj xGF 1.68 / xGA 1.31; Sassuolo away xGF 1.59 / xGA 1.36; λ 1.64, 1.55.
    • Same-season Serie A baseline: 10 of 176 comparable matches reached a 3+ away margin (5.7%).
    • no independent sharp same-rung price; Pinnacle is -1.25, not Sassuolo above 2.5. Kalshi raw 0.02 is fraction-style, not cents-style 2.00.
    • Expected lineups are unconfirmed, and late personnel news could materially alter the extreme-margin tail.
  9. Total goals under 2.5
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Persistence. The under traded near 29.4c, 30.3c across 80+ ProphetX captures from 12:03am to 5:11am PDT.
    • Board as_of_pt 2026-10-24 5:12:54 AM PDT. LEAN ticket; model contradiction prevents RECOMMENDED status.
    • Most likely loss: 3 or more goals. The 10-match model gives over 2.5 a 61.6% probability.

Questions

Who won Sassuolo vs. Como?

Como won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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