Get app
FinalChase Center · San Francisco
Aces
60–71Final
Valkyries
Score by period
Team1234T
LV1813171260
GS2212221571

Top model pick, graded

Won

Golden State Valkyries to win −105

Why Reeve likes it: Model fair probability is 65.4% versus Pinnacle's devigged 48.3% home probability.

ReeveUp 7% return this season · 60 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-9 on this game · −15% return

  1. Golden State Valkyries to win5 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    5 modelsReeve, high-confidence main markets +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Reeve
    • Model fair probability is 65.4% versus Pinnacle's devigged 48.3% home probability.
    • Current-season net rating favors Golden State 8.2 to 5.7; home Elo is 1655 versus Las Vegas 1584.
    • The game model timestamp is September 25, so its injury adjustment may not fully reflect today's availability.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Golden State season defensive rating is 87.1 versus Las Vegas at 96.9.
    • Golden State season net rating is +8.2 versus Las Vegas at +5.7.
    • Model snapshot is dated Sep. 25 and excludes postseason games, so current-form adjustment is uncertain.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Golden State is 8-2 over its last 10 and 34-13 overall before this game.
    • Season net rating favors Golden State 8.2 to 5.8; neither team is on a back-to-back.
    • The model was trained and validated on regular-season games, not this postseason matchup.
    Tip Sheet
    • Model projects Golden State at 65.4% home win probability, roughly a -189 fair line.
    • Golden State's 2026 regular-season net rating is +8.2 versus Las Vegas at +5.7.
    • Starting lineups are not confirmed six hours before tip; this is a LEAN, not a fully confirmed recommendation.
  2. Las Vegas Aces to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, Always wins
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Nakase's defensive designs are familiar to Hammon's Aces; the matchup preview says Las Vegas has repeatedly solved them.
    • Aces' Wilson-centered interior attack stresses a Valkyries defense built around perimeter stoppers Williams and Burton.
    • The warehouse Elo model makes Golden State a 65.4% home favorite, a major counter-signal to this coaching-only read.
    Always wins
    • 80% of reported tickets were on Golden State; only 20% of money was on that side.
    • Pinnacle moved from Valkyries -102/Aces -119 to Valkyries +109/Aces -128, opposing the public ticket majority.
    • Golden State owns the stronger season net rating, 8.2 versus Las Vegas at 5.8.
  3. Jackie Young over 6.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +122 on FanDuel

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30 of 47 games cleared 6.5 assists (63.8%); FanDuel's +122 implies 45.0%.
    • A Poisson-binomial proxy using 6.9 season assists and 8.8 over the last five estimates roughly 62% to clear.
    • Minutes are stable: 32.6 season versus 35.6 over the last five (+9.2%), inside the brief's ±15% rotation gate.
    • The de-vigged Pinnacle over baseline is only about 43.3%, so the model materially disagrees with sharp consensus.
  4. Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries over 159.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    WNBA Quant EngineNew model
    Why it likes it
    • 168.6-point blended regular-season efficiency/pace projection is roughly 9 points above the 159.5 market.
    • Aces/Valkyries regular-season paces were 89.2 and 86.7 possessions; matchup blend is about 87.9.
    • Las Vegas posted 102.9 OffRtg and 55.0% eFG; Golden State posted 95.9 OffRtg and 50.3% eFG.
    • Golden State's 87.7 regular-season DefRtg can force a half-court game and suppress Las Vegas efficiency.
  5. Game total over 159.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Pace RiotUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-five game totals average 173.0 for Golden State and 180.4 for Las Vegas.
    • Last-five pace: Valkyries 87.78, Aces 89.88; this is a 177.66 combined-possession profile.
    • Las Vegas averages 102.6 offensive rating; Golden State allows 96.9, the matchup's clear defensive leak.
    • The model projects only 158.5 points, a direct warning against the trend read.
  6. Las Vegas Aces spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Visiting HoursDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Away eFG edge is +0.05: Las Vegas 0.55 versus Golden State 0.50.
    • The rule threshold is -0.01; this matchup clears it by 0.06.
    • min_gp_prior is 47, comfortably above the required minimum of 4.
    • Las Vegas has four listed outs, including Ta'Niya Latson and NaLyssa Smith.
Show all 11 picks
  1. A'ja Wilson over 24.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade: 76/100 (B); Wilson cleared 24.5 points in 7 of her last 10 games and 3 of her last 5.
    • A blended season/L10/L5 projection is 26.4 points, 7.8% above the 24.5 posted line.
    • Wilson averages 26.24 points over 45 regular-season games; she averaged 32.0 points in three postseason games.
    • Season hit rate is 26 of 45 (57.8%), below the preferred 60% consistency threshold.
  2. Las Vegas Aces–Golden State Valkyries total under 158
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Natalie Nakase’s Valkyries played at 84.2, 93.2, 81.9, 86.9 and 92.7 pace in their last five; three were below 87.
    • Golden State’s 10-game pace is 86.08 and its recent defensive profile is 81.2 points allowed per game; the slow-control side is structurally present.
    • The 12:20 PM WNBA availability update confirms no questionable players; Talbot and Evans are out for Las Vegas, while four Valkyries are out, reducing offensive continuity.
    • Las Vegas averaged 89.88 pace over its last five, including 93.1 and 93.0 in two recent games.
  3. Game total over 157.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tree: A'ja Wilson not listed out; Gabby Williams OUT; Tier 1 semifinal matchup; four listed outs each; no B2B; Filter B/E routes to full-game OVER.
    • The prior meeting totaled 165; Las Vegas scored at least 89 in four of its last five, while Golden State scored 100+ twice.
    • Golden State's four-player absence list removes a key perimeter defender and constrains depth, favoring the opponent team-total/full-game-total route over a spread.
    • The model is dated September 25 and sits only one point above the contract threshold, so the price edge is thin.
  4. Game total under 157.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw Kalshi Over 157.5 midpoint is 0.49, a fraction 0.xx probability, not 49.5 cents; the matched NO contract is graded at 0.54 / 54¢.
    • Golden State's 85.8 postseason pace and 85.69 pace EWMA are below Las Vegas at 89.9 and 90.33; the slower Valkyries profile should dictate tempo.
    • Recent completed-game pace averages were about 87.8 for Golden State and 89.9 for Las Vegas; neither recent trend supports a fast-game override.
    • The live scoring pace can rebound sharply after halftime, and the pregame pace-efficiency estimate was near 159 rather than materially below 157.5.
  5. A'ja Wilson over 25.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wilson averages 26.2 regular-season points and 29.4 points per 36 minutes.
    • She cleared 25.5 points in 6 of her last 10 games and 4 of her last 5.
    • Her last-five average is 27.6 points, while FanDuel offers plus money at 25.5.
    • Wilson scored 22 and 18 in two of her last 10, showing meaningful downside at this line.

Questions

Who won Aces vs. Valkyries?

The Valkyries won 71-60 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.