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FinalChase Center · San Francisco
Aces
81–83Final
Valkyries
Score by period
Team1234T
LV1120242681
GS1923241783

Top model pick, graded

Won

A'ja Wilson under 10.5 rebounds −136

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 8.0 rebounds per game over the last 10 is 23.8% below the 10.5 line.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-1 on this game · +70% return

  1. A'ja Wilson under 10.5 rebounds2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop Scanner
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 8.0 rebounds per game over the last 10 is 23.8% below the 10.5 line.
    • Under in 9 of her last 10 and 4 of her last 5; current streak is 3 straight unders.
    • Rebounding is high-variance; her last five include a 16-rebound outlier.
    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop Scanner
    • Per-minute Poisson fallback estimates roughly 69% under; DraftKings implies 58.3%, a 10.7-point delta.
    • Pinnacle 10.5 prices over +108/under -144; de-vigged sharp under baseline is about 55.1%.
    • Wilson's elite rebounding role creates right-tail risk from missed shots and extended possessions.
  2. Golden State Valkyries to win2 models agree
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • WNBA model makes Golden State 65.4% at home; -120 implies 54.5% and a model fair price near -189.
    • Game 1 tactical win: Valkyries outrebounded Las Vegas 52-25 in a 71-60 victory.
    • The win model is trained on regular-season data and excludes postseason games; the coaching read has only one fresh semifinal sample.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model makes Golden State 65.4% at home versus a 53.5% devigged market probability.
    • Valkyries are +8.3 net rating on the season versus Las Vegas at +5.3.
    • The model vintage is September 25 and its validation excludes postseason games.
  3. Over 156.5 total points2 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPace Riot, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Riot
    • Recent five-game totals average 169.8 for Golden State and 173.0 for Las Vegas.
    • Last-five pace is 85.6 for Golden State and 89.14 for Las Vegas, enough tempo for this number.
    • The teams just produced 131 total points on October 4, and that defensive game is fresh in the market.
    Shot Clock
    • Las Vegas likely dictates tempo: its L5 pace is 89.14 versus Golden State's 85.60; season baselines are 90.21 versus 85.99.
    • The matchup model's 92.55 GS and 93.39 LV efficiency outputs support a total two points above the 156.5 rung.
    • Band is LEAN, not Recommended: the projection is only 2.0 points above the market line.
  4. A'ja Wilson under 28 points
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.2 season PPG and 25.9 L10 PPG sit below the 28-point threshold.
    • Golden State matchup board assigns Wilson a -0.04 expected-FG impact; 49% of her attempts come in the paint.
    • Main total moved from 157.5 to 156.5; Pinnacle under juice strengthened from -109 to -119.
    • Wilson's 27.6 L5 scoring and 32.0 minutes keep 28 reachable.
  5. Golden State Valkyries spread −1.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team-net fallback: Golden State +8.2 versus Las Vegas +5.7, plus home baseline projects the Valkyries about -4.5.
    • Golden State is 4-1 with a +6.4 last-5 margin; Las Vegas is 3-2 at +5.0.
    • Golden State won the latest meeting 71-60 while holding Las Vegas to 60 points.
    • Jewell Loyd is doubtful while Stephanie Talbot and Dana Evans are questionable; activations could materially change the matchup.
  6. Golden State Valkyries over 75.5 team points
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor IN: A'ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes have no current injury designation; the tree bypasses the frontcourt trap.
    • Opponent Tier 1: both are elite postseason teams, but Las Vegas enters with Jewell Loyd and NaLyssa Smith out.
    • Depth branch: Las Vegas loses a key creator/interior piece while Golden State's home scoring baseline is 82.5 points.
    • Golden State has four players listed out, so its own depth loss can suppress late scoring.
Show all 11 picks
  1. Las Vegas Aces over 1.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Visiting HoursDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Away eFG edge is +0.05: Las Vegas .5471 versus Golden State defensive .4981.
    • The rule gate clears comfortably: min_gp_prior is 48, above the required 4.
    • Current FanDuel price is -114 on the away +1.5 spread; opening price was -110.
    • The live board lists Las Vegas with four players out and Stephanie Talbot day-to-day.
  2. Kiah Stokes under 3.5 points
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.7 points per game over the last 10 is 22.9% below the 3.5 line.
    • Under in 8 of her last 10; she is 3/5 under in the last five.
    • Regular-season under hit rate is 25/43 (58.1%), above the -115 price's 53.5% break-even.
    • The 25/43 season under rate is only modestly above the preferred 55% baseline.
  3. WNBA game total over 157.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Road TripUp 45% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams last played October 4 at Golden State; two days off and no venue change remove a fatigue drag.
    • Season scoring totals average 173.5 combined points (LV 91.3, GS 82.2) against a 157.5 line.
    • Season pace is 90.4 for Las Vegas and 86.1 for Golden State; LV also shoots 48.5% overall and 35.9% from three.
    • The October 4 playoff meeting totaled only 131 points, showing the series may be materially slower than regular-season baselines.
  4. Game total over 156.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Tip SheetNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 158.5, two points above FanDuel's 156.5.
    • Expected pace is 85.26; both teams' last-five pace marks are elevated at 85.6 and 89.14.
    • Postseason scoring baselines combine for 174.3 points per game.
    • Game 1 finished 71-60, and Golden State's postseason defense is rated 89.5.
  5. Las Vegas Aces @ Golden State Valkyries over 157.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    ShootaroundDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 158.5, one point above DraftKings' 157.5.
    • Three rest days each; neither team is on a back-to-back.
    • Las Vegas is without interior anchor NaLyssa Smith and perimeter piece Jewell Loyd.
    • Only a one-point cushion over the model; normal shooting variance dominates.

Questions

Who won Aces vs. Valkyries?

The Valkyries won 83-81 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.

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