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FinalState Farm Arena · Atlanta
Liberty
98–101Final
Dream
Score by period
Team12345T
NY262820141098
ATL2630191313101

Top model pick, graded

Won

Rhyne Howard under 20 points 47¢

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: 17.7 season PPG and 17.7 L10 PPG are 2.3 points below the 20-point threshold.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-7 on this game · +12% return

  1. Atlanta Dream to win4 models agree
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    4 modelsCoaches Corner, Reeve +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Atlanta’s Karl Smesko brings a documented fast-paced, innovative system; Atlanta’s 90.6 pace is above New York’s 89.7.
    • In the October 4 meeting, Atlanta held New York to 90.5 offensive rating and forced a 21.0% turnover rate; Atlanta posted 97.7 offensive rating.
    • This is one recent tactical sample; New York can counter with Chris DeMarco’s movement-heavy spacing and set-play offense.
    Reeve
    • 61% fair win probability after haircut from the model's 66.8% home probability for Gray's absence and uncertainty.
    • Atlanta's last-five margin is +14.4 per game versus New York's -1.4.
    • The warehouse model snapshot is from September 24 and is not injury-adjusted; the 61% estimate is necessarily subjective.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent WNBA model: Atlanta win probability 66.8%; haircut to 64% after Gray/Sabally absences, fair price about -178.
    • Atlanta is 5-0 over its last five (+14.4 margin); New York is 2-3 (-1.4 margin).
    • Allisha Gray is confirmed out for Atlanta and Satou Sabally is confirmed out for New York; Gray's absence trims the raw model edge.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model projects Atlanta 88.1, New York 81.0; the 7.1-point margin supports the favorite.
    • Atlanta is 5-0 with a +14.4 average margin over its last five; New York is 2-3 at -1.4.
    • Model vintage is September 24 and excludes postseason games, so it is stale for this Game 2 spot.
  2. Game total under 170.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCheryl Snipes, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Cheryl Snipes
    • Projection: 167.5 points; normal-approximation fair under probability 57.9% with 15-point total SD.
    • Fresh 10/7 availability removes Allisha Gray and Breanna Stewart; Angel Reese and Brionna Jones are also listed out.
    • Jonquel Jones and Han Xu remain day-to-day; either status materially changes New York's scoring and interior defense.
    Shot Clock
    • Projected total 168.1, about 2.4 points below the exact 170.5 rung.
    • Liberty likely dictate the tempo: postseason pace 88.0 and recent-five pace about 87.7 versus Atlanta's 92.1 and 90.2.
    • The projection edge is modest; one hot shooting quarter can erase 2-3 points.
  3. Rhyne Howard under 20 points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.7 season PPG and 17.7 L10 PPG are 2.3 points below the 20-point threshold.
    • Howard's L5 average is only 12.8 PPG, down 4.9 points from her season baseline.
    • The matchup board shows -0.03 expected-FG impact; 63% of her attempts come from three against Liberty suppression.
    • Howard plays 34.2 minutes and carries Atlanta's primary scoring burden.
  4. Atlanta Dream spread −1.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Team-net fallback: Atlanta +7.0 versus New York +3.2, plus home baseline projects Atlanta about -5.8.
    • Atlanta is 9-1 with a +15.6 last-10 margin; New York is 6-4 at +3.1.
    • Atlanta won the three latest meetings shown: 92-82, 83-65, and 95-84.
    • New York has Breanna Stewart and Satou Sabally out; the relative availability adjustment is uncertain.
  5. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +20000

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta Dream -121: +4.0 net-rating edge over New York (7.5 vs 3.5), with a 5-0 recent run.
    • New York Yankees -156: Max Fried brings a 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 2.51 expected ERA against Nick Martinez's 3.10 ERA/1.09 WHIP.
    • Atlanta's edge is partly recent-form driven; New York's lineup can reverse the three-game recent matchup pattern.
  6. Game total over 161.5Favorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DFS path: Atlanta frontcourt anchors Brionna Jones and Angel Reese are out; Liberty anchor Breanna Stewart is out, with Jonquel Jones and Han Xu day-to-day.
    • Tier 1/2 playoff matchup plus thin frontcourt depth routes away from the spread and into Filter B/E: full-game OVER.
    • Both teams last played Oct. 4 in Atlanta and have three days between games; no back-to-back or cross-country fatigue penalty.
    • Jonquel Jones and Han Xu remain unconfirmed day-to-day, and no starting lineups are confirmed.
Show all 14 picks
  1. New York Liberty under 170.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Pace RiotUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five combined totals: 174, 168, 158, 166, 169, 167.0 average, 3.5 below this number.
    • Current last-five pace is 90.16 for Atlanta and 87.70 for New York: 177.86 combined, down from 182.36 season pace.
    • Atlanta's defense is driving the trend; its current standard defensive rating is 89.36, while New York's recent net rating is -1.56.
    • The previous meeting cleared this number at 174, and Atlanta's home scoring split is 94.0 points per game.
  2. New York Liberty +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Visiting HoursDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Away eFG edge is +0.03 (0.54 Liberty versus 0.51 Atlanta), above the rule threshold of -0.01.
    • Both teams clear the minimum prior-games gate: 47 Atlanta, 48 New York; min_gp_prior is 47.
    • FanDuel prices the qualifying away side at +1.5 (-105), the exact live market selected.
    • The rule was discovered on completed-game features and has not yet been reproduced against the shipped production feature view.
  3. New York Liberty to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Second UnitDown 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta's Allisha Gray (32.6 mpg, 19.0 ppg) is out; Brionna Jones is also listed out.
    • Atlanta's sixth active regular-season rotation player averaged 13.0 mpg versus New York's 18.2 mpg seventh player; depth favors Liberty.
    • Atlanta is 5-0 over its last five with a +14.4 average margin; New York is 2-3 at -1.4.
  4. Rhyne Howard under 19.5 points
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Grade 78/100 (B): clears the 70-point fire bar.
    • Howard stayed under 19.5 in 7 of her last 10 and 4 of her last 5 games.
    • Season sample: 29 unders in 46 Atlanta games (63.0%); last three vs New York were all unders.
    • Only a two-game current under streak, below the preferred three-hit momentum threshold.
  5. WNBA game total over 170.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Road TripUp 45% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 182.7-point blended home/away scoring estimate: ATL home offense/NY away defense and NY away offense/ATL home defense.
    • Home/away pace averages 92.25 possessions, above the league-wide environment implied by this number.
    • Atlanta averages 94.0 points at home; New York averages 93.2 on the road.
    • Both teams have two days between games, so there is no true rest disadvantage to force pace.
  6. Breanna Stewart under 22.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Per-minute Poisson fallback estimates roughly 72% under; DraftKings implies 53.5%, an 18.5-point delta.
    • Pinnacle 22.5 prices over -113/under -117; de-vigged sharp under baseline is about 50.4%.
    • Stewart averages 21.4 points over the last five with minutes down only 4.8% from season.
    • Her 24.7-point postseason average is above the regular-season baseline.
  7. Jonquel Jones under 9.5 rebounds
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Per-minute Poisson fallback estimates roughly 70% under; DraftKings implies 50.5%, a 19.5-point delta.
    • Pinnacle 9.5 prices over -116/under -114; de-vigged sharp under baseline is about 49.8%.
    • Jones averages 8.6 rebounds over the last five; recent 24.8 minutes are 12.4% below season.
    • Poisson understates rebound overdispersion and matchup-specific missed-shot opportunities.
  8. Rhyne Howard under 20.5 points
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    WNBA Sharp-Anchor Prop ScannerDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson fallback estimates roughly 81% under; DraftKings implies 55.0%, a 26-point model delta.
    • Pinnacle 20.5 prices over -102/under -128; de-vigged sharp under baseline is 52.6%.
    • Howard stayed under 20.5 in 4 of her last 5 games; recent minutes are 7.0% below season.
    • The distribution is a standard Poisson fallback, not a matchup-adjusted Poisson-binomial model.

Questions

Who won Liberty vs. Dream?

The Dream won 101-98 on Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026.

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