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FinalState Farm Arena · Atlanta
Liberty
82–92Final
Dream
Score by period
Team1234T
NY2416152782
ATL2116322392

Top model pick, graded

Won

Atlanta Dream spread −4.5 −104

Why Reeve likes it: Model projects Atlanta 88.1, New York 81.0: 7.1-point home margin versus the -4.5 line.

ReeveUp 7% return this season · 60 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-4 on this game · +21% return

  1. Atlanta Dream to win3 models agree
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsThird Quarter Run, WNBA Default Picks +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Third Quarter Run
    • Atlanta's recent 10-game efficiency: 103.2 offensive rating, 90.7 defensive rating, +12.6 net; New York: 95.2, 92.0, +3.1.
    • The matchup trade is Atlanta's more efficient offense attacking New York's weaker defense, while Atlanta's 90.7 defense suppresses New York's 95.2 offense.
    • The win model snapshot is dated September 24, and the postseason sample is only two games per team.
    WNBA Default Picks
    • Polymarket US Atlanta YES costs 63¢; entry break-even is 63.0%.
    • Pinnacle -199/+168 devigs to 64.1% Atlanta; the contract is 1.1 points cheaper.
    • The model snapshot is dated Sept. 24; it is not a fresh final-availability projection.
    Second Unit
    • Tier A schedule gate: wnba_clash_board shows Atlanta 0 B2B and 4 rest days; New York 0 B2B and 5 rest days.
    • Pace/rotation favor Atlanta's control: clash-board pace_std/L5 is Atlanta 92.23/90.42 versus New York 90.08/87.60; Atlanta's last-game top five logged 35/35/33/30/28 minutes versus New York's 40/33/33/32/29.
    • New York has one additional rest day, so this is not an Atlanta rest advantage; a rested Liberty core can erase the rotation-depth read.
  2. Atlanta Dream spread −4.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    ReeveUp 32% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects Atlanta 88.1, New York 81.0: 7.1-point home margin versus the -4.5 line.
    • Model home-win probability is 66.8%; season net rating is Atlanta +7.0 versus New York +3.2.
    • Atlanta's last-five margin is +23.2; New York's is +8.0, and Atlanta won the two September meetings by 11 and 18.
    • The live line moved from -3.5 to -4.5, so some of the initial value has already been removed.
  3. Atlanta Dream spread −5.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Cheryl SnipesDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own rebuilt margin is Atlanta +6.5; 11-point margin SD implies 53.6% cover probability.
    • Preview board shows Atlanta +19.28 L5 net edge versus New York +8.68, with 4/5 rest days and no back-to-back.
    • Natural-key deduped latest-five team minutes were Atlanta 199, 200 and New York 200, 202: no doubled rotation pull.
    • Jonquel Jones and Han Xu remain day-to-day, making New York's frontcourt availability and margin distribution uncertain.
  4. New York Liberty spread +4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Visiting HoursDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Away eFG edge is +0.03 (0.54 Liberty vs 0.51 Atlanta), above the rule threshold of -0.01.
    • Minimum prior games is 46, comfortably above the required 4-game gate.
    • The backtested away-spread rule is +9.2% pooled over 173 qualifying games.
    • The upcoming game is absent from the completed-game feature table; the +0.03 gate uses the fresh preview-board eFG proxy.
  5. Jordin Canada over 10.5 points
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L10 hit 7/10 (70%); L5 hit 4/5 (80%).
    • L10 projection 12.3 points versus 10.5, a 17.1% projection edge.
    • Season hit 25/46 (54.3%); 31.1 season minutes and 31.6 over the last five.
    • Season hit rate is just below the preferred 55% threshold.
  6. Game goes to overtimeLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

    SydDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent postseason games with a closing spread of 4.5 points or fewer went OT 2 of 17 times: 11.8%.
    • This matchup is priced around Atlanta -3.5, placing it inside the close-game filter.
    • Only 1 of the first 10 2026 postseason games reached OT; the current sample is thin.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Game total over 173.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Road TripUp 45% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring averages combine for 180.9 points, 7.4 above the posted 173.5.
    • Atlanta and New York’s preview pace figures are 92.23 and 90.08 possessions.
    • Preview effective FG rates are .5055 for Atlanta and .5375 for New York.
    • Both teams’ season defensive profiles can suppress this number, especially Atlanta’s 89.6 defensive rating.
  2. Atlanta Dream over 88.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    WNBA Secret SauceUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tree path: NY frontcourt anchor status unresolved → playoff-caliber opponent → shortened rotations → long rest → Filter E/conditional B → team-total over.
    • Atlanta averages 91.3 points this season, above the 88.5 threshold.
    • Atlanta’s last-20 record is 16-4 with a +10.8 average margin; current form is 5-0, +23.2.
    • The WNBA model projects Atlanta at 88.1 points, just below this 88.5 line.
  3. Game total NO 171.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta likely dictates tempo: its L5 pace is 90.42 versus New York's 87.60; both are below their standard pace marks.
    • Form efficiency is modest for scoring: Atlanta 103.2 ORTG/90.7 DRTG, New York 95.2 ORTG/92.0 DRTG.
    • This is a pace-and-efficiency projection; rest and back-to-back status are not primary drivers for this desk.
    • Han Xu remains questionable with illness; recent box data shows she was a reserve playing 8 minutes, but her availability is unresolved.
  4. New York Liberty under 172.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Pace RiotUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total is 169.1, 3.4 points below the 172.5 market.
    • Atlanta's last five game totals average 170.2; New York's average 165.0.
    • Projected pace is 90.68 possessions, below Atlanta's 92.2 and only modestly above New York's 90.3.
    • Atlanta's season form is explosive: 175.8 average team total over its rolling sample and a 5-0 last-five record.

Questions

Who won Liberty vs. Dream?

The Dream won 92-82 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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