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FinalSignal Iduna Park · Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
0–1Final
Borussia Dortmund
Score by period
Team12T
EF000
BD011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total goals under 3.5 51¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: Dortmund attack 1.69 plus Frankfurt defense 1.67; Frankfurt attack 1.48 plus Dortmund defense 0.83.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-0 on this game · +241% return

  1. Both Teams To Score NO2 models agree
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsBoth Nets, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Both Nets
    • Dortmund scoring read 81% (20-match opp-adjusted/XG coverage); Frankfurt scoring read 70% (20 matches), yielding BTTS-YES about 57% and BTTS-NO about 43%.
    • ASYMMETRIC matchup: Dortmund's attack is strong (1.69 opp-adjusted xGF/m), while Frankfurt's 1.48 opp-adjusted xGF/m faces Dortmund's 0.99 xGA/m feature read (0.95 in the kickoff macro).
    • Expected lineups were not confirmed; the pregame feed lists projections and availability uncertainty, including major roster changes on both teams.
    Number Earned
    • DraftKings +160 breaks even at 38.5%; adjusted fair chance is 45.0% after lineup uncertainty.
    • Dortmund’s home form is 7-2-1 with 21 goals for and 8 against across 10 matches.
    • Model also makes Over 2.5 goals 56.5%, so one early goal can create a wide-open match.
  2. Match total goals under 3.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Dortmund attack 1.69 plus Frankfurt defense 1.67; Frankfurt attack 1.48 plus Dortmund defense 0.83.
    • Computed expected total: 2.84 goals; direct 3.5-goal market rung implies roughly 50.5% under at Pinnacle, while Kalshi NO costs 51¢.
    • Only 10 xG matches per side, below the desk's 12-game top tier; this is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
  3. Eintracht Frankfurt +1.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • own margin mass mapped across ProphetX's quoted -1 and -1.5 ladder; no same-rung sharp Asian line, so the raised bar applies.
    • Only 10 xG matches support each side: moderate rather than deep coverage, and the derived reference is not independent.
  4. Eintracht Frankfurt spread +1.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 10-match process sample is fully covered and friendlies-free: Dortmund xG difference +1.11 per match versus Frankfurt -0.07.
    • Most likely loss: Dortmund wins by two or more goals, despite the model's lower expected margin.
  5. Over 1.5 1H goals scored NO
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Half LightDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bundesliga sample: 79 of 204 goals came in the first half, a 38.7% share.
    • Full mean × measured split implies 1H mean 1.43; reconciled P(1H over 1.5) is about 42%.
    • The 1H mean must move 0.27 goals; restoring coherence by moving the full ladder requires roughly 0.7.
    • The 2H total ladder is one-sided at every rung; full three-ladder additivity is not independently confirmed.
  6. Borussia Dortmund wins 1-0Long shot
    +1329%Won

    Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orientation: home is Borussia Dortmund; model key 1-0 is the contract “Borussia Dortmund wins 1-0.”
    • Dead-screen live subset sums 0.62 across 10 contracts; model top-k is 2-0 .1089, 1-1 .1022, 1-0 .1021, 2-1 .0991, 3-0 .0739, 3-1 .0673.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed. Dortmund has 9 sidelined players and 4 days of rest versus Frankfurt's 6 and 8 days.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Match total under 3.5 goals
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.95 expected goals from the model (Dortmund 2.04, Frankfurt 0.91) sits below 3.5.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG favors Dortmund 1.69-1.48, while defensive xG is 0.83-1.67; the matchup projects tighter than raw scoring form.
    • Both lineups were confirmed at 8:55am PT, reducing late-selection uncertainty.
    • Frankfurt scored 26 goals in 10 matches and Dortmund 21, so recent finishing runs can overwhelm the xG baseline.
  2. Borussia Dortmund spread NO above 2.5 goalsFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opp-adjusted inputs are Dortmund xGF 1.69 / xGA 0.83 and Frankfurt xGF 1.48 / xGA 1.67; Dixon-Coles lambdas are 2.04 home and 0.91 away.
    • League-wide current-season baseline has home teams winning by 3+ in 12 of 55 matches (21.8%), consistent with a meaningful 0-2 goal-margin cluster; edge class: PROJECTION.
    • no independent sharp quote exists at the exact -2.5 rung; Pinnacle's -1.25 is off-rung and deliberately excluded, so this is capped at LEAN.
  3. Eintracht Frankfurt +1
    0%Push

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Dortmund is stronger, but the model's 2.04-to-0.91 expected-goal split supports Dortmund superiority without requiring a two-goal margin; xG coverage is 10 matches per side.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-24T08:36:36-07:00. The matched contract is Eintracht Frankfurt +1. Price and size clear the gates. LEAN because the model does not publish an exact +1 cover probability.
    • Pinnacle's nearby -1.25 line favors Dortmund at +104; sharp context is not aligned with the exchange flow.

Questions

Who won Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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