FinalRed Bull Arena · Leipzig
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELVE | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RB | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 3.5 total goals −120
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Both coaches describe an aggressive, high-tempo matchup rather than a containment game.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-7 on this game · −15% return
- Total goals over 3.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsLong Haul, Bench Boss +1Why 3 models like it
Long Haul- confirmed 4-day rest differential: RB Leipzig has 3 days versus Elversberg's 7, with Leipzig flagged for congestion.
- Both XIs were confirmed at 5:31am PDT, removing the brief's lineup gate; Elversberg has 5 listed outs and Leipzig 2.
- The warehouse directly supplies P(over 2.5), not P(over 3.5); converting the 3.91-goal baseline to this rung adds model uncertainty.
Bench Boss- Confirmed formations are Leipzig 4-2-3-1 and Elversberg 4-2-3-1; both starters were verified at 5:31 AM.
- Recent expected goals average 3.92 combined; the warehouse model gives 74.9% for over 2.5.
- Most likely loss: Leipzig control the match into a 2-0 or 2-1 result, stopping at three goals.
Team Sheet Pairs- Current-XI attacking xG is 2.44 for RB Leipzig plus 3.09 for Elversberg; both sides have xG, form and ratings coverage, with 10 xG matches.
- Elversberg start David Mokwa (0.63 xG/90), Maurice Krattenmacher (0.71) and Lukas Petkov (0.31); Leipzig counter with Ezechiel Banzuzi (0.46) and Tidiam Gomis (0.49).
- Most likely loss: a 0-1, 1-1 or 2-1 match; three or fewer goals loses this over 3.5 contract.
- Over 3.5 total goals+83%Won
Taken at −120 on FanDuel
2 modelsCoaches Corner, Team SheetWhy 2 models like it
Coaches Corner- Both coaches describe an aggressive, high-tempo matchup rather than a containment game.
- Demichelis’ home identity is direct, intense high pressing and immediate counterpressing after turnovers.
- Leipzig’s planned rotation and 4-5-1 could reduce attacking cohesion or tempo after recent fixture congestion.
Team Sheet- Rest shock: RB Leipzig has 3 rest days with congestion; Elversberg has 7, a one-sided 4-day gap.
- Confirmed XIs arrived at 5:31 AM PDT. Leipzig lists Marc Guiu and Assan Ouédraogo out; Elversberg lists Francis Onyeka, Luis Seifert, Cole Campbell, Tom Zimmerschied, and Noah Darvich out.
- The model edge is approximately 1 percentage point before lineup uncertainty; variance dominates.
- RB Leipzig to win+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Cohort SoccerUp 46% last 7 days - Elversberg wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Scaled lambdas are Leipzig 1.02 and Elversberg 0.79; coverage is sound with 10 xG games and model flags true.
- Elversberg's 1H mid is 18.5¢ versus 17.5¢ full-time; the 1H price should be lower.
- Leipzig remains the model's 1H favorite at 39.4%; the 1H tie is 33.8%.
- RB Leipzig spread NO above 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 86¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live score is 0-0 at 25'; scaling the pregame lambdas (Leipzig 2.21, Elversberg 1.71) to the remaining 65 minutes gives roughly 9.6% for Leipzig to win by 3+, or 90.4% NO before a modest haircut.
- Same-season Bundesliga sample: only 2 of the latest 20 matches had a home margin of 3+; 18 stayed at 2 or less.
- Leipzig has three rest days versus Elversberg's seven, and the away lambda is high at 1.71; fatigue or a tactical shift can still create a late margin.
- Match total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Leipzig 1.75 (1.82 xGF, 1.69 opponent xGA); Elversberg 1.52 (1.67 xGF, 1.38 opponent xGA).
- Computed expected total is 3.28 goals; Kalshi's full ladder implies roughly 4.0.
- Pinnacle shows an off-line 3.75 total (-113/+103); no same-rung sharp quote is treated as interchangeable.
- Dixon-Coles gives Over 2.5 probability 0.75, implying roughly a 4.0-goal mean and conflicting with the xG total by about 0.7.
Show all 10 picks
- Under 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: RB Leipzig 1.82 for / 1.38 against; Elversberg 1.67 / 1.69; gp_with_xg is 10 for both sides.
- The full ProphetX board has no BTTS-shaped market; this is totals-only, with the only total rung at 3.5.
- Most likely loss is 4+ goals; the model assigns roughly 54.8% to over 3.5.
- RB Leipzig spread NO above 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambda cross-check gives Leipzig a 29.6% chance to win by at least two; model NO probability is 70.4%.
- Bundesliga sample: home wins by 2+ occurred 16/55; goal differences 0, +1, and +2 supplied 27/55 outcomes.
- Pinnacle is off-rung at -1.25; no independent sharp exact -1.5 benchmark exists.
- The -1.5 lambda estimate is an independent-Poisson cross-check, not a directly published Dixon-Coles -1.5 field.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-24 3:46:38 AM PDT. Price +127 is inside the -250 to +300 band; both sides are quoted.
- Most likely loss: four or more total goals; the model's 3.91 combined expected goals leaves a wide upper-tail outcome.
- Elversberg to win−100%Lost
Taken at +390 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 29.7% warehouse away-win probability implies fair odds near +237.
- DraftKings +390 implies 20.4% before margin: roughly +9.3 probability points versus my estimate.
- Expected goals are close: RB Leipzig 2.21, Elversberg 1.70; Elversberg's away xG is 1.81.
- RB Leipzig has the home-field and rating edge, with a 29.7 Elo-point advantage.
Questions
Who won Elversberg vs. RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig won 4-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.