FinalWWK Arena · Augsburg
FC Union Berlin
1–1Final
FC Augsburg
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| UB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| AUG | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFC Union Berlin +1 spread 57¢
Why Standing Order likes it: Union direction recurs on the +0.5 spread and Union 90-minute YES markets; no opposite-market depth signal dominates.
Standing OrderDown 2% this season · 104 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −44% return
- FC Union Berlin to win0%Push
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsDeep Book, Snapp Decision of the Day +2Why 4 models like it
Deep Book- Most likely loss: Augsburg wins. Pinnacle's 3-way reference is Augsburg -139, Union +359; it disagrees with the model and flow.
Snapp Decision of the Day- My conservative estimate is 34%, still 12 percentage points above the market's roughly 22% fair probability.
- Union's away opponent-adjusted xG allowed is 1.18 versus Augsburg's home 2.03.
- The market strongly disagrees, and my 34% estimate is well below the warehouse model's 46.6%.
Long Haul- no qualifying Long Haul pillar: both teams have 7 rest days, WWK Arena is grass, travel is unrecorded, and no aggregate state applies.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed at 5:38am PDT; late rotation or an unlisted absence could erase the model gap.
Number Earned- The independent model's fair line is roughly 46.6¢, implying substantial value at the live contract price.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Union: 1.34 away xG for versus Augsburg's 2.03 home xG against.
- Union's recent form is weaker: 1-3-1 in the last five and 2-3-2 in the last seven.
- FC Union Berlin +1 spread+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Union direction recurs on the +0.5 spread and Union 90-minute YES markets; no opposite-market depth signal dominates.
- Model corroborates: Union away probability 0.47 versus Augsburg home 0.31; adjusted xG differentials are +0.17 versus -0.15.
- The 14.34x ratio is specific to the +1 rung; other markets corroborate direction, not this exact price.
- FC Union Berlin wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi prices Union's 1H contract at 23c, equal to its full-time Union contract; a 1H win should be strictly less likely.
- Coverage is sound: 10 xG matches for each team and all three 1H winner contracts are trading with 2c spreads.
- Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; the preview lists six Union and five Augsburg absences.
- Both Teams To Score+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Augsburg scoring probability ~81.6% from λ 1.69; Union defense allows 1.50 xG/match.
- Projection: Union scoring probability ~85.0% from λ 1.90; Augsburg defense allows 2.45 xG/match.
- Symmetric BTTS profile: both sides project strong independent scoring chances; product is ~69.4%.
- Expected, not confirmed, lineups; late goalkeeper or attacker changes could materially alter either scoring probability.
- Match under 3.5 total goals+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opp-adjusted xG gives Augsburg 1.53 (home xGF 1.88, Union away xGA 1.18) plus Union 1.69 (away xGF 1.34, Augsburg home xGA 2.03); total 3.22.
- The 0.45 same-rung ladder price implies roughly 3.42 goals under a Poisson translation versus my 3.22; model Under 3.5 is about 60%.
- Only 10 xG matches per side, below the brief's preferred 12-game tier; the roughly 0.20-goal disagreement is small and variance dominates.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Augsburg 1.88 for / 2.03 against; Union 1.34 / 1.18; gp_with_xg is 10 for both, so the coverage gate passes.
- Both teams have seven rest days; current expected XIs were refreshed at 3:49am PDT, though neither lineup is confirmed.
- The complete board lists only the 3.5 Total Goals rung and no BTTS-shaped market; totals-only and projection-led.
- Most likely loss is exactly three goals; the model assigns roughly 21% to that single outcome and about 50.2% to under 3.5 overall.
Show all 7 picks
- FC Union Berlin spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles λ cross-check estimates Union margin ≥3 at approximately 12.8%; the 4¢ rung is below that read.
- Kalshi is the only live exact full-match rung; the sportsbook spread is an off-rung -0.5 quote.
- The current Bundesliga sample has Union-side away margin ≥3 in only 2 of 55 matches (3.6%); this is broad, not team-specific.
Questions
Who won FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg won 1-1 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.