FinalRheinEnergieStadion · Cologne
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCHA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KÖL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSchalke 04 spread +0.5 53¢
Why Fair Price Pairs likes it: Dixon-Coles scoreline grid makes Schalke 04 +0.5 cover 62.2%; no sportsbook devig used.
Fair Price PairsDown 14% this season · 144 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 12-1 on this game · +86% return
- Total goals under 2.5+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Standing Order +2Why 4 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- Schalke's absent Moussa Sylla started 9 of 10 and produced 0.48 xG/90 with a 6.72 rating; the confirmed Schalke XI is only 1.68 XI attack-xG versus Köln's 2.68.
- Köln's confirmed XI has 2.68 attack-xG and Schalke's defense could be exposed; Timo Hübers and Rav van den Berg are also absent for Köln, weakening the home back line.
Standing Order- Reference: NO REFERENCE. The signal is the ProphetX book shape, not an external price.
- Pinnacle is under at 2.8 (+102), not 2.5; rung rules prevent treating that as exact sharp corroboration.
Deep Book- The total rung showed no recorded price movement across 40 ProphetX captures from 1:04, 3:57 AM PDT; the over side held 57.63c.
- Both sides are quoted. The under price is inside the -250 to +300 band. Board as_of_pt: 2026-10-24T03:59:04-07:00. LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
- Most likely loss: three or more goals; under 2.5 has no push protection.
Bench Boss- confirmed XIs posted 5:41 PDT; the under stayed at 43.1¢ through 5:48 PDT.
- Six notable attacking absences span both teams: Sylla, Karaman, Højlund, Dallinga, Rondic, and Ache.
- Most likely loss: an early goal opens the match into a three-goal transition script.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil Pairs- Opponent-adjusted xG: Köln 1.43 for / 1.46 against; Schalke 1.14 / 1.23; gp_with_xg is 10 for both sides.
- No BTTS-shaped ProphetX market appeared on the full event board, so this is totals-only.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed, with the latest lineup observations from October 22; late changes remain unknown.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model makes the under 2.5 probability 53.3%.
- The model is roughly 10.2 points above the live exchange price.
- The broader board leans over: Kalshi and Polymarket US price over 2.5 around 57, 58%.
- Schalke 04 spread +0.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles scoreline grid makes Schalke 04 +0.5 cover 62.2%; no sportsbook devig used.
- Most likely loss: FC Köln wins in 90 minutes; any home win defeats Schalke +0.5.
- FC Schalke 04 spread +0.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Reality check: four of six recent Bundesliga results involving these teams finished within one goal; five-match form margins are Köln -0.8, Schalke 0.0.
- Both XIs are expected rather than confirmed; Schalke are missing listed regulars including Moussa Sylla and Dejan Ljubicic.
- Schalke 04 wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is FC Köln; model key 0-1 maps to “Schalke 04 wins 1-0.”
- Top-k contract; lambdas are 1.31 home and 1.23 away, with 10 xG-supported matches each.
- Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; seven Schalke and six Köln absences are listed.
- Match total goals under 2.5+41%Won
Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 0-0 around 40', time-scaled remaining xG is about 1.46; model under-2.5 probability is roughly 77% after uncertainty discount.
- Live Poisson time-scaling is approximate; a penalty, red card, or tactical state change can invalidate it.
Show all 9 picks
- Match under 3.5 total goals+52%Won
Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Both Teams To Score NO+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- LEAN band; PROJECTION edge; venue self-reference because no independent sharp BTTS quote is exposed for this fixture.
- FC Köln scoring read 73.6%: 1.43 oppadj xGF versus Schalke's 1.23 xGA; 10-match xG coverage.
- Schalke scoring read 72.7%: 1.14 oppadj xGF versus Köln's 1.46 xGA; 10-match xG coverage.
- Self-reference, not a sharp-reference comparison; per desk rule this is capped at LEAN.
- FC Köln spread NO above 2.5 goals+10%Won
Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles home -0.5 probability is 37.8%; the lambda goal-difference cross-check puts Köln 3+ goals ahead near 6%, supporting roughly 94% for NO.
- Same-season Bundesliga sample has Köln-style home margins of 3+ in 12 of 55 matches (21.8%), far above the lambda cross-check; the tail model may be too conservative.
Questions
Who won Schalke 04 vs. FC Köln?
FC Köln won 0-0 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.