FinalFlagler Credit Union Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| FAU | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFlorida International Panthers spread +6.5 54¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-1 on this game · +58% return
- Florida International Panthers spread +6.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Under 62.5 total+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Possession model projects 59.5 points; current PPD is FAU 2.46 and FIU 1.71, with 2025 blended PPD 2.35 and 2.11.
- FAU’s first two 2026 totals were 87 and 68; the 2025 meeting finished 38-28.
- Florida Atlantic wins 1st Half+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FAU's two-game offensive EPA/play is +0.10 versus FIU's +0.11, but the matchup differential favors FAU: +0.23 against FIU's defense versus FIU's +0.06 against FAU's.
- Caden Veltkamp is confirmed by the current game preview and led FAU to 386 yards and five touchdowns last week; JJ Kohl is likewise the current FIU starter.
- FAU's recent points-per-drive marks are 3.17 and 1.75, while FIU's are 2.43 and 1.00, supporting the stronger opening-script side.
- Coverage is only two 2026 games per team, below the preferred 3-5-game sample.
- Florida International Panthers spread +7+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Key-number density favors the +7 cushion; Pinnacle's current -5.5 reference corroborates FIU receiving a meaningful number.
- Personnel gate cleared: last-game pass-attempt leaders were JJ Kohl (36) and Caden Veltkamp (32); official checks identify Kohl as FIU's expected 2026 starter and Veltkamp as FAU's starting QB.
- FIU has no populated 2026 PFF team card, while FAU's latest card grades its offense 70.7 and pass blocking 81.9.
- Florida Atlantic 1H spread NO 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game spread is FAU -6.5; halving the mean gives roughly FAU +3.25 at halftime.
- 2,047 completed 2024, 26 FBS games produced signed-margin SD 22.76; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD about 16.10.
- That mean-plus-SD distribution makes Florida Atlantic winning the first half by over 2.5 about 52%; NO fair probability is about 48% versus a 44¢ entry.
- Only two 2026 games per team make PPD, EPA, and explosive-rate inputs unstable.
- Florida Atlantic Owls spread −4.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1.0-point sportsbook line range: FanDuel -4.5 versus DraftKings -5.5.
- Matchup EPA edge +0.39: FAU offense-vs-FIU defense +0.03 versus FIU-vs-FAU -0.36.
- FAU success rate 47.2% versus FIU 44.2%; modest +3.0-point margin.
- FAU's defense allowed +0.37 EPA/play in the recent-four window; FIU can exploit it.
Show all 7 picks
- Game 1H total under 31.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent pace is 24.21 FIU and 25.80 FAU seconds/play; 6.22 recent plays/drive and a 15% stoppage cut produce about 11 first-half drives.
- Season-to-date PPD baseline is 2.46 FAU plus 1.71 FIU per paired drive; conservative script uplift is +0.15 PPD from PROE .0986/.0820 and explosive rate .1707/.0886.
- Season-to-date PPD baseline alone projects only about 22.9 points at 11 drives; opponent context makes the range wide.
Questions
Who won Florida International vs. Florida Atlantic?
Florida Atlantic won 16-10 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.