FinalRobert W. Plaster Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 14 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
| MOST | 10 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMarshall Thundering Herd to win 63¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-7 on this game · −29% return
- Missouri State Bears spread +3−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- Missouri State's latest PFF card leads Marshall 71.0, 54.9 in offense grade and 65.2, 58.3 overall.
- Two-game 2026 sample: Missouri State defense allowed -0.00 EPA/play versus Marshall's +0.16; the defensive mismatch supports the home dog.
- Most likely loss: Marshall's stronger passing efficiency than its season average turns the game into a multi-score road win.
ProphetX Pairs- Pinnacle shows Missouri State +4.5 at -113, while ProphetX offers +3 at +123; the exchange price is materially cheap relative to that reference.
- 2026 sample: Missouri State's defensive EPA allowed is -0.00 versus Marshall's +0.16, supporting a tighter game.
- Only two 2026 games per team: this is Partial/Tier 2, not the required three-game Full sample.
- Marshall Thundering Herd to win+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Marshall Thundering Herd wins 1st Half+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: Marshall 61% first-half win probability versus the market's roughly 55% devigged reference.
- Two-game EPA matchup differential favors Marshall by approximately 0.24 EPA/play: Marshall offense -0.11 vs Missouri defense -0.00; Missouri offense -0.18 vs Marshall defense +0.16.
- Marshall's recent success rate averages 42.0% versus Missouri State's 37.8%, supporting the stronger opening-script side.
- Marshall's pace input is unstable, 27.09 versus 1.54 seconds per play across its two games, making possession estimates noisy.
- Game 1H total over 27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Week 1, 2: 123 combined plays and 24.0 combined drives per game; week-2 pace blends 27.09/26.97 seconds per play.
- PROE/explosive uplift is team-specific: Marshall 1.06 multiplier; Missouri State 1.03; equal-drive blend 1.04.
- Starting-QB gate cleared live: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Skyler Locklear are both identified as today's starters.
- Only a two-game 2026 sample; Marshall's Week 1 1.54-second pace is a data-quality anomaly excluded from the pace blend.
- Missouri State to win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Marshall Thundering Herd spread −3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle/DraftKings reference Marshall roughly -4 to -4.5; ProphetX offers -3.5.
- CFB margin histogram: 3-point margins occur 962 times versus 341 at 4, 256 at 5 and 331 at 6; the key-3 gap carries extra mass.
- 2026 efficiency is a modest Marshall lean: offense EPA/play -0.11 vs Missouri State -0.18, success rate .4204 vs .3782.
- Marshall's latest box had Zion Turner attempt 9 passes versus Carlos Del Rio-Wilson's 8; the official preview names Carlos, but the recent rotation adds uncertainty.
Show all 11 picks
- Missouri State Bears 1H spread NO 3.5+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp reference: Marshall -4.5 full-game scales to a +2.25 first-half mean; model Missouri >3.5 probability ≈29%, NO ≈71%.
- College key-number mass is computed: margins 3 and 7 lead at 170 and 139 cases; 3.5 sits just beyond the 3-point mass.
- QB gate passed: official Marshall game center names Carlos Del Rio-Wilson; the official preview identifies Missouri State starter Skyler Locklear.
- Only two 2026 games per team; EPA, pace, and points-per-drive inputs are noisy.
- Missouri State +4 spread (push on exactly a 4-point loss; 3.19% historical mass)−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri State +4 pushes on exactly a 4-point loss; Missouri State +4.5 loses there.
- Missouri State loses the ticket by 5 or more; an exact 4-point loss only refunds the stake.
- Missouri State +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels: Missouri State 3 versus Marshall 3; two of three measures align and the thin-side availability exceeds the few-hundred-dollar rule of thumb.
- Venue self-reference is not an independent statistical edge or sharp reference.
- Missouri State Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The mismatch is specific: ProphetX has not reflected the live model's roughly 46% home-win estimate.
- Marshall's 14-3 lead is real; another early score could sharply reduce Missouri State's comeback chances.
- Game total over 50.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX team totals are 28.5 and 24.5, summing to 53.0, 2.5 points above its game-total rung.
- Marshall-Missouri State current market is materially higher at 52.5 across DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle.
- The exchange's lower game line is not fully aligned with its related team-total pricing.
- The specific 50.5 over has only a modest cushion; its -136 price implies 57.6%.
Questions
Who won Marshall vs. Missouri State?
Marshall won 30-24 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.