FinalMemorial Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| MIZ | 0 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMissouri Tigers 1H spread NO 14.5 50¢
Why Early Cover likes it: 2,055 FBS finals from 2024-26 give winning-margin SD 15.61; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.04 first-half SD.
Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −33% return
- Missouri −27−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing Missouri -27, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference only: resting orders can be stale, cancelled, concentrated, or non-predictive.
- Missouri Tigers spread −28−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Missouri's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.24 versus Troy's +0.10; Missouri defense EPA allowed is -0.26 versus Troy's -0.02.
- 2026 PFF team grades favor Missouri 91.8 to 79.5; Pinnacle/DraftKings reference the same direction around Missouri -27 to -27.5.
- Missouri must win by at least 29; an exact 28-point win is the key-number loss that makes this rung fragile.
- Donovan Olugbode first touchdown scorer−100%Lost
Taken at +900 on DraftKings
CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 12.5% model probability; fair price +700 versus live +900.
- Missouri offense: +0.24 EPA/play, 45.9% success, 3.77 points/drive through two games.
- Missouri PFF offense graded 84.6 versus Troy defense 74.7; current defensive EPA allowed is -0.01.
- Two-game sample is thin, and opponent-adjusted efficiency is not yet mature.
- Missouri Tigers 1H spread NO 14.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,055 FBS finals from 2024-26 give winning-margin SD 15.61; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.04 first-half SD.
- Pinnacle's full-game Missouri spread is -27; halving the mean to 13.5 plus a modest first-half adjustment yields a 14.0-point mean.
- At 14.5, the mean+SD distribution gives roughly 48% for Missouri to clear the rung; model fair NO is about 52% before discrete key-mass adjustment.
- Only two 2026 games per team; Missouri's 0.24 offensive EPA/play and 3.77 points/drive versus Troy's 0.10 and 2.23 are thin samples.
- Missouri Tigers spread −26.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1.0-point sportsbook line range: FanDuel -26.5 versus DraftKings -27.5.
- Matchup EPA edge +0.11: Missouri offense-vs-Troy defense +0.15 versus Troy-vs-Missouri +0.04.
- Missouri success rate 46.3% versus Troy 42.3%, clearing the +4.0-point minimum weigh.
- EPA differential is below the +0.12 high-conviction threshold.
- Missouri Tigers spread −27−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current 2026 sample (2 games): Missouri offense +0.24 EPA/play versus Troy defense -0.02 allowed; Troy offense +0.10 versus Missouri defense -0.26.
- Missouri is producing 3.77 points per drive versus Troy's 2.23; the defensive EPA gap supports a multi-score Missouri margin.
- Prior-season fallback (13 Missouri games, 14 Troy games) points the same way: Missouri offense +0.07 versus Troy defense +0.03; Troy offense -0.07 versus Missouri defense -0.04.
- Missouri could build a lead and reduce aggression, leaving a backdoor Troy score or a 24-point win.
Show all 9 picks
- Game total under 50.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices under 50.5 at 51.22¢ versus under 50 at 50.74¢, only 0.48¢ more for the exact-50 win.
- Only 194.49 is offered at the quoted price, and the exchange line can reprice before filing or kickoff.
- Troy Trojans to win−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The raw implied-probability gap is 1.50, 2.03 points in Troy's favor versus those same-game references.
- Troy's Week 2 offense posted 0.14 EPA/play and a 52.8% success rate, preserving a credible upset-tail path.
- Most likely loss: Missouri controls the game and Troy never threatens the moneyline.
- Game total points under 49.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX team-total thresholds sum to 49 points (Missouri 38.5 plus Troy 10.5), below the full-game rung.
- Tempo read supports a lower-possession script: 2026 pace is 27.73 seconds/play for Missouri and 27.22 for Troy.
- Current 2026 sample is only two games per team; prior-season rows were used as the documented fallback, so this is capped LEAN.
- Missouri's 2026 offense has produced 2.21 points/drive over the recent window; efficient red-zone execution can clear 50.
Questions
Who won Troy vs. Missouri?
Missouri won 27-17 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.