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FinalJordan-Hare Stadium
Florida2-0
44–39Final
Auburn2-0
Score by period
Team1234T
FLA137141044
AUB31471539

Top model pick, graded

Won

Florida Gators −2.5 spread 50¢

Why House Rules likes it: ProphetX prices Florida -2 at 51.92¢ (-108) versus the confirmed Florida -2.5 contract at 50.25¢ grading price (-102 quoted).

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-3 on this game · +54% return

  1. Florida Gators spread −2.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Rnj
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Pinnacle same-rung quote is Florida -2.5 -106 / Auburn +2.5 -106; devigged Florida probability is 50.0%.
    • Blended matchup efficiency gives Florida roughly a 0.09 EPA/play advantage; current PPD is Florida 4.73 versus Auburn 2.20, supporting the margin edge.
    • Only two 2026 advanced rows per team, so the partial-tier model blends prior-season data and has meaningful estimation error.
    Rnj
    • EPA matchup +0.29 for Florida (0.32 offense minus Auburn's 0.03 defensive EPA).
    • Florida success rate 54.5% vs Auburn 48.2%, a +6.3-point margin.
    • Auburn has home field and a close-game profile makes -2.5 vulnerable to late variance.
  2. Florida Gators −2.5 spreadHigh conviction
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Florida -2 at 51.92¢ (-108) versus the confirmed Florida -2.5 contract at 50.25¢ grading price (-102 quoted).
    • Florida -2.5 loses on a 2-point Florida win; the structural edge does not predict which margin occurs.
  3. 1H total over 27.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida's two-game points-per-drive average is 4.73; Auburn's is 2.20, supporting a projected first-half total near 31.5.
    • The matchup combines Florida's 58.7% success rate with Auburn's 22.4-second pace, creating a high-possession scoring path.
    • Florida posted 52 and 66 points in its first two games; Auburn posted 43 and 17, with both offenses showing early explosive capacity.
    • The sample is only two games and both points-per-drive figures can regress sharply against SEC competition.
  4. Florida Gators 1st-half winner
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida averaged +0.53 offensive EPA/play and 58.7% success rate over two 2026 games.
    • Auburn averaged +0.09 offensive EPA/play and 48.5% success; Florida's opening-script efficiency is materially stronger.
    • Florida's 4.73 points/drive and 20.5% explosive rate lead Auburn's 2.20 and 15.0%.
    • Only two games of 2026 data per team; opponent quality and regression are unresolved.
  5. Game 1H total over 26.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 window is two games each: Auburn averaged 83 plays at 22.38 seconds/play; Florida 65.5 plays at 28.99 seconds/play.
    • First-half drives averaged 6.5 for Auburn and 6.0 for Florida; combined 12.5 first-half drives against 23 full-game drives.
    • Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality and early-season scoring variance are substantial.
  6. Auburn +2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3; the two core measures agree. Directional check: backing Auburn +2, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book levels; this is not a three-measure signal.
Show all 13 picks
  1. Auburn Tigers spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.53 versus Auburn's +0.09; the profile favors Florida narrowly, not a blowout.
    • QB gate cleared: last boxes led by Byrum Brown (28 attempts) and Aaron Philo (21); official game-day coverage identifies Philo.
    • Florida's EPA edge comes from only two 2026 games and is opponent-sensitive; PFF still favors Florida overall, 96.9 to 88.9.
  2. Florida Gators to win
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida averages +0.53 offensive EPA/play versus Auburn's +0.09 through two 2026 games.
    • Florida leads early success rate 58.7%, 48.5% and explosive rate 20.5%, 15.0%.
    • Quarter-Kelly estimate: 2.4% recommended, capped to 0.5% bankroll.
    • Only two games per team; the CFB sample is Partial-tier and opponent-adjustment uncertainty is substantial.
  3. Jeremiah Koger under 3.5 receptions
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Target share fell 25.8% to 12.1% (8 to 4 targets); official receiving yards held 56 to 57.
    • PFF route rate remained high at 100.0% then 92.3%, confirming a real route role despite fewer targets.
    • Only 2 current-season games; PARTIAL coverage and the 36.1% target-share CV exceed the stability guideline, so this is hard-capped at 0.5u.
  4. Florida Gators 1H spread YES 1.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • model mean is Florida +1.5 at halftime with 11.04-point SD; exact-rung P(Florida >1.5) is about 50% versus 48¢.
    • Pinnacle full-game Florida -2.5 scales to roughly Florida +1.25 in the first half, supporting this side.
    • 2,055-game 2024-26 FBS sample gives full-game margin SD 15.61; sqrt-half scaling, not half-scaling, preserves first-half tails.
    • Only two 2026 games per team make the efficiency inputs thin and noisy.
  5. Florida Gators spread −2
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida is ranked No. 25 in the Week 2 AFCA Coaches Poll; Auburn is unranked in the returned ranked rows.
    • This is a single-game ticket, so no parlay-combination tax applies. Reference board was fresh at 3:43 PM PDT.
    • The two-game sample is opponent-sensitive: Florida's large EPA edge came against Florida Atlantic and Campbell, while Auburn faced Baylor and Southern Miss.
  6. Game total points over 52
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team-total rungs sum to 54 (Florida 27.5 plus Auburn 26.5), supporting an over-52 position; the Auburn rung is thin and is not traded.
    • 2026 sample: Florida averages 28.99 seconds/play, +0.09 PROE, 58.7% success and 20.5% explosiveness; Auburn averages 22.38, +0.08, 48.5% and 15.0%.
    • The five-game preview blend (two 2026 games plus three 2025 games) still shows 28.04/22.81 seconds/play and 3.36/2.80 points per drive.
    • LEAN cap: each team has only two 2026 cfb_team_game_adv rows, so three prior-season games were used as the flagged fallback.
  7. Auburn Tigers to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current captured Pinnacle has Auburn +205; ProphetX's +295 is the materially better price on the same outcome.
    • Most likely loss: Florida's stronger opening live profile converts into control and Auburn never gets the outright win.

Questions

Who won Florida vs. Auburn?

Florida won 44-39 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.

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