FinalHancock Whitney Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 0 | 14 | 15 | 36 |
| USA | 14 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 41 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOhio Bobcats spread +7 52¢
Why House Rules likes it: Ohio +7 pushes if South Alabama wins by exactly 7; it does not lose on that margin.
House RulesDown 3% this season · 1403 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · −4% return
- South Alabama Jaguars to win+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- South Alabama 2026 off EPA/play is 0.13 versus Ohio's 0.04; defensive EPA allowed is 0.04 versus 0.34.
- 2026 PFF overall grade is 78.5 for South Alabama versus 62.1 for Ohio; offense grades 74.8 versus 59.0.
- Ohio's Matt Vezza is reported to start but share snaps with Levi Davis after Nick Poulos's injury.
ProphetX Pairs- Fox player news lists Nick Poulos out and Matt Vezza starting; ProphetX still offers South Alabama -235.
- South Alabama has the current-season EPA edge: offense +0.13 vs Ohio +0.04; defensive EPA allowed +0.04 vs Ohio +0.34.
- Only two current-season games per team; CFB full-tier minimum is three, so this is Partial/Tier 2.
- Ohio Bobcats spread +7+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ohio +7 pushes if South Alabama wins by exactly 7; it does not lose on that margin.
- ProphetX prices Ohio +7 at -108 versus Ohio +7.5 at -125: the whole rung is 17 cents better.
- Ohio +7 loses if South Alabama wins by 8 or more; game projection is outside this desk's edge.
- South Alabama Jaguars spread −6−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 two-game sample: South Alabama offense +0.13 EPA/play versus Ohio's +0.04; South defense allowed +0.04 versus Ohio +0.34.
- South leads current success rate .485 to .465 and explosive rate .126 to .075.
- PFF 2026 card favors South: offense 74.8 to 59.0 and overall grade 78.5 to 62.1.
- both teams have only two 2026 advanced rows; the 2025 multi-game rows are fallback context.
- South Alabama −7−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection, South Alabama’s 2026 offense is +0.13 EPA/play; Ohio’s defense allows +0.34 EPA/play.
- South Alabama averages 2.88 points per drive versus Ohio’s 1.74, creating a wider home-margin path.
- Pinnacle and DraftKings both show South Alabama -7 near -104/-105; ProphetX offers +103.
- Most likely loss: South Alabama wins by six or fewer despite the efficiency mismatch.
Questions
Who won Ohio vs. South Alabama?
South Alabama won 41-36 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.