FinalJohnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 7 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 20 |
| MTSU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 50.5 50¢
Why Resting Money likes it: Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree, while the raw thin-side quote is above the few-hundred-dollar minimum.
Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1232 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +54% return
- Nevada Wolf Pack −3 (pushes on exactly a 3-point Nevada win; 9.21% historical key-number mass)−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nevada -3 wins by 4+; exactly 3 pushes, while Nevada -3.5 loses at exactly 3.
- ProphetX prices Nevada -3 at 56.33¢ (-129) versus Nevada -3.5 at 52.38¢ (-110): only a 3.95-point implied gap.
- A Nevada win by 1, 2, any Middle Tennessee win, or a margin above 3 in the wrong direction loses; only exactly 3 pushes.
- Game total under 50.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree, while the raw thin-side quote is above the few-hundred-dollar minimum.
- Backing under 50.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the direction: under and over each have 3 levels.
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to win+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Middle Tennessee leads Nevada after two games in offensive EPA/play (0.18, 0.13), success rate (48.7%, 46.3%), and explosive rate (16.8%, 12.4%).
- Home-field value plus Nevada's 7-point, four-turnover loss to Montana State creates a closer matchup than the -180 Nevada market implies.
- Middle Tennessee's defense has allowed +0.16 EPA/play versus Nevada's -0.00; Nevada can win through the stronger defensive profile.
Questions
Who won Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee?
Middle Tennessee won 27-20 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.