FinalM. M. Roberts Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 14 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 48 |
| USM | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
Won1H total over 27.5 49¢
Why Two Quarters likes it: 2-game 2026 window: UConn 62.0 plays/28.77 sec; Southern Miss 72.5/25.95 sec; blended pace 27.36 sec.
Two QuartersDown 10% this season · 321 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −49% return
- 1H total under 27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent averages imply roughly 2.36 points per Southern Miss drive and 2.64 per UConn drive, while both teams have slower-than-explosive opening profiles in at least one recent game.
- The projection uses only two 2026 games per team and does not have a stable 3, 5 game sample.
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Southern Miss averages 0.18 offensive EPA/play and 48.2% success across two 2026 games; UConn averages 0.11 EPA/play and 44.8% success.
- Southern Miss’s 25.95-second pace is faster than UConn’s 28.77, supporting more early possessions; Southern Miss also has the stronger adjusted EPA matchup.
- Only two 2026 games per team: low coverage tier, with opponent-quality adjustment unresolved.
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1H spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game Southern Miss -3.5 (-109); two-game EPA matchup projects roughly +4.5 full-game points, or +2.3 at halftime after the first-half adjustment.
- 2023-25 CFB final-margin sample: 2,764 games, SD about 14.59; sqrt-half scaling gives a 10.32-point 1H SD, not a naively halved 7.30.
- Only two 2026 games per team: EPA, points per drive, and explosive rates are thin and volatile.
- 1H total over 27.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2-game 2026 window: UConn 62.0 plays/28.77 sec; Southern Miss 72.5/25.95 sec; blended pace 27.36 sec.
- Drive ledger projects 12.25 first-half drives from a 24.5-drive full-game average.
- Observed first-half PPD uplift was 11.3%; half-shrunk for sample size gives a 32.3-point projection.
- no independent sportsbook first-half line; this is model-only and capped EXPLORATORY.
Questions
Who won UConn vs. Southern Miss?
UConn won 48-20 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.