FinalWilliams-Brice Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 0 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 41 |
| SC | 13 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 30.5 1H points scored 44¢
Why Kickoff Script likes it: Recent points-per-drive averages are 4.50 for Mississippi State and 4.09 for South Carolina.
Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-9 on this game · −77% return
- South Carolina Gamecocks to win−100%Lost
Taken at −170 on FanDuel
3 modelsD1 Winner, Resting Money +1Why 3 models like it
D1 Winner- Efficiency family favors South Carolina: 92.2 overall grade versus 91.0, with an 84.6, 79.4 defensive-grade edge.
- South Carolina also leads the latest special-teams grade 90.0, 70.0 and owns the better 2026 defensive EPA average.
- The +4.10-point model edge clears the gate by only 0.10 points.
Resting Money- Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree on South Carolina's thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it configuration.
- Directional check: backing South Carolina, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book levels.
ProphetX Pairs- Partial CFB tier: both teams have only two current-season games, below the three-game full-tier threshold.
- South Carolina Gamecocks −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Polymarket US quotes the Gamecocks -3.5 at 50¢ with a live, quoted, tradable contract.
- Both signals are market-derived rather than an independent game model; early-season variance remains wide.
- Over 30.5 1H points scored+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent points-per-drive averages are 4.50 for Mississippi State and 4.09 for South Carolina.
- Only two games each; opponent adjustment could materially reduce both points-per-drive estimates.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mississippi State averaged 0.56 offensive EPA/play and 60.5% success across two 2026 games.
- South Carolina averaged 0.45 offensive EPA/play; the Bulldogs’ efficiency differential favors the opening script.
- Kamario Taylor led Mississippi State’s latest game with 22 pass attempts; current previews identify him against LaNorris Sellers.
- Only two games each; both teams’ efficiency samples are heavily nonconference-weighted.
- Game total under 59−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX Under 59 is -102 (50.5¢) versus Under 59.5 at -110; the whole rung retains the push option.
- Under 59 loses at 60 or more; an exact 59 only returns stake rather than wins.
- Total Points under 61−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's live team-total rungs are South Carolina 31.5 and Mississippi State 27.5, summing to 59 against the game total of 61.
- The two offenses are efficient (0.61 and 0.56 success rates), but current defensive EPA allowed is negative for both (-0.04 and -0.05 averages); PFF defense grades are 79.4 and 84.6.
- Both offenses have explosive rates above 0.16 in the 2026 sample, so one short field or breakaway score can erase the under cushion.
Show all 8 picks
- South Carolina Gamecocks 1H spread NO 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game South Carolina -3.5 implies a 1H mean of +1.75; 2,042 signed CFB margins produce SD 22.76, so half SD is 16.09, not 11.38.
- absolute full-game margin 3 occurred 177 times; the adjacent 3.5 YES rung is 44.5¢, consistent with the model's roughly 46% YES.
- the rung is active and tight; recent Kalshi history oscillated around 52, 53¢ without a sustained adverse move.
- Only two 2026 games per team; both are nonconference, so opponent adjustment is weak.
- 1H total under 30.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Mississippi State vs. South Carolina?
Mississippi State won 41-34 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.