Columbia vs. PennsylvaniaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFranklin Field

Columbia3–1

28–27Final

Pennsylvania2–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
COLU	7	14	0	7	28
PENN	17	7	6	0	27

Top model pick, graded

Won

2-leg parlay +36400

Why Parlay Lab likes it: Columbia's overall PFF grade is 86.9 versus Pennsylvania's 68.9, a major matchup-quality gap despite Penn's home field.

Parlay LabUp 24% return this season · 27 picksLongshots

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How the picks did

Models went 5-2 on this game · +5229% return

2-leg parlayLong shot
+36400%Won
Taken at +36400
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Columbia's overall PFF grade is 86.9 versus Pennsylvania's 68.9, a major matchup-quality gap despite Penn's home field.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers was re-quoted at -140 on ProphetX's two-way moneyline; the model makes Wolves 56.4% to win versus roughly 58.3% implied, with the value coming from the two-leg structure.
- Wolves own a 1.539 opponent-adjusted xG attack and 1.102 defensive xGA, versus Burnley's 1.283 and 1.674.
- Penn's defense is the better unit by EPA allowed, and Columbia's defense allowed a poor +0.2245 EPA/play in the recent window.
Pennsylvania Quakers 1st-half winnerFavorite
+14%Won
Taken at 88¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- live FanDuel made Penn -1000 full-game; Penn is already up 17-7 with 3:06 left in Q1.
- Live cfb PBP confirms both QBs: Penn's Karson Siqueiros-Lasky has 4-of-6 for 67 yards and a TD; Columbia's Chase Goodwin is 3-of-8 for 68 yards, a TD and an interception.
- My first-half estimate is 95%, seven points above the 88c graded price; the raised derived-reference bar for this wake was 6 points.
- Columbia needs only a net 11-point swing over roughly 12 minutes to erase Penn's lead before halftime; one short field or explosive play can do it.
Columbia Lions wins by over 5.5 pointsLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Columbia: +0.085 recent offensive EPA/play and 50.6% success rate; Penn: −0.092 and 44.6%.
- Columbia averages 27.0 points recently versus Penn's 15.2, supporting upset-margin upside.
- Only 26.79 contracts traded; the 20¢ quote is thin and may not represent robust price discovery.
Under 47.5 total points
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 71/100 (B); own 58% under estimate is 5.6 points above the -110 break-even.
- Pennsylvania has scored only 61 points in four games (15.25 per game); the teams' combined season scoring average is 42.25 points.
- The US market hangs 47.5 while Pinnacle's current reference is 46, giving the under a 1.5-point ladder cushion.
- Columbia's defense has allowed 28.5 points per game, and its recent totals include 69 and 75 points.
Columbia Lions +6.5
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); own 57% cover estimate is 5.8 points above the -105 break-even.
- Columbia is 3-1 with 108 points scored; Pennsylvania is 2-2 with 61 points scored.
- Latest team grades favor Columbia 86.8 to 68.9; recent offensive EPA/play is +0.085 versus Pennsylvania's -0.092.
- Current SRS contradicts the film/form read: Pennsylvania rates -30.8 versus Columbia -40.1, a 9.3-point gap.
Columbia Lions spread +6.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Columbia's 2026 offense averages +0.0850 EPA/play, 50.6% success, and 27.0 points per game through four games.
- Penn averages -0.0919 offensive EPA/play and 15.25 points per game; the market's six-and-a-half points prices in more separation than that offense has shown.
- Columbia is 3-1 versus Penn's 2-2; Pinnacle also posts +6.5, but ProphetX offers the slightly better -101 price.
- Penn's defense has allowed -0.1383 EPA/play, while Columbia's defense has allowed +0.2245; that matchup can overwhelm the dog.

Show all 7 picks

Columbia Lions to winLong shot
+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Columbia's 2026 offense is +0.0850 EPA/play and 27.0 points per game; Penn is -0.0919 EPA/play and 15.25 points per game.
- Columbia is 3-1 versus Penn's 2-2 entering this game; the recent scoring profiles favor the underdog's upset path.
- Penn's defense has allowed -0.1383 EPA/play, while Columbia's defense has allowed +0.2245; that matchup can overwhelm Columbia's offense.

Questions

Who won Columbia vs. Pennsylvania?

The Columbia won 28–27 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.