Abilene Christian vs. North AlabamaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBraly Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABIL | 7 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| NORT | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-6 on this game · −100% return
- Game total under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- Combined season scoring averages are 44.2 points per game, 6.3 below FanDuel’s 50.5 total.
- North Alabama allows 21.2 points per game and Abilene Christian allows 24.9; neither offense has a strong sustained scoring profile.
- ACU’s 12.6% explosive-play rate can break an otherwise favorable under script.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Estimated total 47.5 versus 50.5 posted line: 5.9% projection edge.
- Under 50.5 in 11 of 16 combined recent games: ACU 7/9, UNA 4/7.
- Abilene Christian has explosive recent outputs of 41 and 35 points, so one big-play game breaks the under.
- North Alabama Lions to win−100%Lost
Taken at +136 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
D1 Winner- SRS rates North Alabama -23.4 versus Abilene Christian -30.1, a 6.7-point team-quality gap.
- North Alabama’s latest team grade is 87.2 versus 76.0; defense grades 91.5 versus 79.6.
- Abilene Christian has the better 2026 offensive EPA average, 0.00 versus North Alabama’s -0.01.
Long Way Home- North Alabama’s season margin is +2.5 versus Abilene Christian’s -4.3; the six-point-plus profile gap is not reflected in a 42.4% home win price.
- Over the latest five games, both teams average 24.0 points, but North Alabama allows 23.4 versus Abilene Christian’s 24.0; the home side is the more balanced profile.
- Most likely loss: Abilene Christian’s stronger recent offensive EPA converts its efficiency edge into a road win despite North Alabama’s better margin profile.
- Game under 50.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine for 44.2 points (ACU 20.6, UNA 23.7) against a 50.5 market total.
- Efficiency matchup is modest: ACU offense is +0.00 EPA/play and UNA offense -0.01; neither profile supports a fast shootout.
- NWS forecast has 15 mph north-northeast wind with gusts to 25 mph at Florence, a meaningful passing and kicking constraint.
- ACU's defense has allowed 24.9 points per game and +0.16 EPA/play allowed, so UNA can create efficient scoring despite the wind.
- Game total under 49.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- North Alabama allows 21.2 points per game; Abilene Christian allows 24.9, but ProphetX still posts 49.5.
- The feed and warehouse confirm the scheduled 4:00 PM PDT game; this is a main game-total market with a live venue quote.
- Abilene Christian's defense has allowed 24.9 points per game, and its 41-39 Idaho result shows genuine explosive-game risk.
Questions
Who won Abilene Christian vs. North Alabama?
Abilene Christian won 31-28 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.