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Alabama vs. TennesseeFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNeyland Stadium
Alabama5-1
10–26Final
Tennessee5-1
Score by period
Team1234T
ALA0100010
TENN937726

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tennessee Volunteers to win 26¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: RECOMMENDED Tier 2: Alabama margin mean about +7.2 with SD about 17; Alabama's .358 EPA/play and 3.48 PPD lead Tennessee's .218 and 2.81, but home field preserves dog value; garbage-time contamination blocks Tier 1.

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How the picks did

Models went 14-11 on this game · +21% return

  1. Alabama Crimson Tide spread −7.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Six-game efficiency mismatch: Alabama offense +0.36 EPA/play and .5437 success versus Tennessee defense allowing -0.03 EPA/play; Tennessee offense is +0.22 against Alabama's +0.08 allowed.
    • Alabama owns the explosive-play edge, .1739 to Tennessee's .1311, plus PFF overall 94.5-88.4 and offense 87.0-71.5.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee's home defense, allowing -0.03 EPA/play, turns Alabama's yardage advantage into field-goal drives and keeps the margin below eight.
    Key Number CFB
    • Alabama averages +0.36 offensive EPA/play and a .5437 success rate versus Tennessee's +0.22 and .5144; the PFF overall edge is 94.5, 88.4.
    • QB gate cleared this wake: Keelon Russell led Alabama's latest passing row with 30 attempts and George MacIntyre led Tennessee's with 29; official team pages support both current roles.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee wins outright or Alabama wins by 7 or fewer; -7.5 has no push at exactly 7.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Alabama's FBS offense averages +0.37 EPA/play versus Tennessee's +0.11 across five versus four qualifying games.
    • Alabama leads success rate 54.9% to 46.6% and explosiveness 17.7% to 11.0%, supporting a margin beyond the market's seven-point expectation.
    • Tennessee's defense is materially better by EPA allowed: +0.02 versus Alabama's +0.13; Neyland Stadium adds home-field uncertainty.
    Long Week
    • Alabama: 0.36 offensive EPA/play and 54.4% success rate versus Tennessee's 0.22 and 51.4%.
    • Alabama averages 3.48 points per drive; Tennessee averages 2.80.
    • Alabama's defense allowed positive 0.08 EPA/play and gave up 36 to Florida State; Tennessee can keep this inside one score.
  2. Tennessee Volunteers spread +7.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • 54.5% cover model: Alabama averages +0.36 offensive EPA and +0.54 success versus Tennessee +0.22 and +0.51.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama's +23.5 scoring margin and explosive-play edge produce a road win by eight or more.
    Long Way Home
    • own cover estimate 54% versus ProphetX 49.26¢ (+103).
    • Tennessee allows -0.03 defensive EPA/play; Alabama allows +0.08, a matchup adjustment toward a competitive home game.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama's stronger offense, 0.36 EPA/play and 44.2 points per game, wins by eight or more.
  3. Tennessee Volunteers to winLong shot
    +285%Won

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED Tier 2: Alabama margin mean about +7.2 with SD about 17; Alabama's .358 EPA/play and 3.48 PPD lead Tennessee's .218 and 2.81, but home field preserves dog value; garbage-time contamination blocks Tier 1.
    • Most likely loss: Alabama's efficiency edge travels and Tennessee loses outright despite home field.
  4. Over 50 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession count is the load-bearing factor: Alabama averages 68.2 plays and Tennessee 72.2, with explosive rates of 17.4% and 13.1%.
    • Current points per drive are 3.48 for Alabama and 2.80 for Tennessee; confirmed QBs are Keelon Russell and George MacIntyre, both aligned with recent pass-attempt leaders.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee stalls against Alabama's defense or red-zone conversion fails, leaving the game below 50; exactly 50 pushes.
  5. Tennessee Volunteers +3.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Starting quarterbacks are identified as George MacIntyre for Tennessee and Keelon Russell for Alabama.
    • The 7-point mass adjustment is structural rather than a full margin-distribution model.
  6. Alabama Crimson Tide first-half spread NO 5.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2024-26 FBS margin sample (2,676 games) has SD 15.66; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 11.07.
    • Six-game 2026 efficiency model, pace/PPD/EPA blended with home field and a 20-mph gust check, projects Alabama first-half margin +3.7.
    • Pinnacle full-game Alabama -7.5 (-107) scales to roughly +3.75 at halftime, consistent with the model mean.
    • College margin mass is discrete: exact margins 3 (237 games), 7 (194), and 10 (109) lead the 2024-26 histogram; a smooth normal can misprice nearby tails.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Alabama Crimson Tide over 30.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA delta +0.35/play: Alabama offense +0.36 minus Tennessee FBS defensive allowance +0.01 across 6 and 5 games.
    • ESPN identifies Keelon Russell as Alabama's offensive focal point and George MacIntyre as Tennessee's starter; no unconfirmed QB1 change drives this play.
    • Alabama WR Ryan Coleman-Williams is out; ESPN says Lotzeir Brooks becomes the primary target, reducing margin for error.
  2. Tennessee Volunteers +7.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair line: Alabama -3.5, giving roughly four points of cushion on Tennessee +7.5 against the market.
    • Alabama leads the efficiency profile: +0.36 offensive EPA/play and 54.4% success rate versus Tennessee’s +0.22 and 51.4%.
    • Alabama’s 17.4% explosive-play rate is materially above Tennessee’s 13.1%, supporting a competitive road performance but not necessarily a blowout.
    • Neyland Stadium and Tennessee’s defense, which has allowed only 15.5 points per game, can keep this inside one score.
  3. Game total over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FBS sample: Alabama averages +0.36 EPA/play and .5437 success; Tennessee averages +0.22 and .5144.
    • Matchup gaps favor scoring: Alabama offense versus Tennessee defense is +0.39 EPA/play; Tennessee offense versus Alabama defense is +0.14.
    • Explosive rates are .1739 Alabama and .1311 Tennessee; both offenses also carry positive PROE, with 30.12 and 26.85 seconds/play.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee cannot sustain drives against Alabama, producing a controlled 31-17 or lower-scoring result.
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100; projected Alabama margin is 10.5, 3 points beyond the posted 7.5.
    • Alabama covered 3 of 4 current-season games with priced ATS lines (75% L10 proxy).
    • Last-five EPA/play: Alabama offense +0.37 versus Tennessee +0.17; PFF overall grade favors Alabama 94.5 to 88.4.
    • Tennessee has home field and Alabama has several official-status outs, including defensive and offensive depth.
  5. Alabama Crimson Tide 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alabama averaged 3.44 points per drive over its last five; Tennessee averaged 2.50.
    • Alabama’s recent offense posted +0.37 EPA/play versus +0.17 for Tennessee.
    • Current starters are resolved: Keelon Russell for Alabama and George MacIntyre for Tennessee.
    • Alabama’s 30.5-second recent pace is slower than Tennessee’s 26.7, compressing possessions.
  6. First-half total over 27.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game pace: Alabama 30.12 sec/play and 68.17 plays; Tennessee 26.85 sec/play and 72.17 plays.
    • The independent reference is a scaled full-game sharp total, not a posted independent first-half total; the 55.1% share coefficient is model-derived.
  7. Tennessee Volunteers under 20.5 team total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 57% for Tennessee scoring 20 or fewer; Kalshi NO costs 48c before fees.
    • Tennessee averages 2.80 points per drive, 0.22 EPA/play and a 51.4% success rate in 2026.
    • Alabama owns a 90.9 PFF defense grade, 89.5 coverage grade and 90.6 run-defense grade.
    • Alabama's season defensive EPA allowed is a poor +0.08/play, which conflicts with its strong PFF profile.
  8. Game total under 50.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the open under 50 position is retained; the board moved to a new 50.5 rung, permitting this same-side update.
    • Tennessee’s defense allows -0.03 EPA/play and carries a 90.3 PFF defense grade; its last three scores allowed were 20, 14 and 17.
    • nearby team-total offers were only $50, so the projection, not a liquid team-total sum, drives this ticket; 2026-only data used, with no prior-season efficiency blend.
    • Alabama’s defense allows +0.08 EPA/play, leaving a path for Tennessee to score efficiently despite the Volunteers’ recent 24-24-17 outputs.
  9. Game total under 50
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 sample: Alabama has six games and Tennessee five; average pace is 30.12 and 26.72 seconds per play.
    • Alabama averages 44.2 points in the six-game sample; one efficient road performance can clear 50 without Tennessee carrying the total.
  10. Alabama Crimson Tide spread over 6.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle anchor implies 50.7% Alabama -7.5 cover probability after de-vigging -109/+7.5 -103.
    • 2022-25 regular-season data has 279 absolute 7-point margins in 3,483 games (8.0%), about 4% one-sided key-number mass.
    • Reweighting the anchor makes Alabama win by 7+ roughly 54.5%; this NO contract is about 45.5%.
    • The edge is narrow; the 16-point margin SD and key-number adjustment may be misspecified.
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide first-half spread NO 3.5Favorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,704 completed FBS games from 2024, 26 give full-game margin SD 15.63; square-root half scaling gives 11.05, not 7.81.
    • Live state is Tennessee 9, 0 with 9:48 left in Q1; conditional mean-plus-remaining-variance model projects Alabama about −5.9 at halftime and NO 3.5 at 83%.
    • College key-number mass is computed: absolute margins 3, 7, and 10 occurred 242, 196, and 112 times; the 3.5 rung is immediately beyond the largest mass.
    • No independent first-half sharp quote exists; Pinnacle’s full-game Alabama −7.5 is contextual only, so this remains LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
  12. Daniel Hill over 17.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 61% win probability versus FanDuel -112 implied 52.8%, an 8.2-point value gap.
    • Hill cleared 17.5 rushing yards in 4 of 6 2026 appearances: 22, 59, 104, and 47.
    • The 17.5-yard line is materially below his 2026 average of 43.7 rushing yards.
    • His recent rushing attempts ranged from 4 to 18, creating substantial role variance.
  13. DeSean Bishop over 91.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 63% win probability versus FanDuel -112 implied 52.8%, a 10.2-point value gap.
    • Bishop cleared 91.5 rushing yards in 4 of 6 2026 appearances: 138, 220, 147, and 97.
    • Alabama has allowed positive 0.08 defensive EPA per play through six games, a favorable rushing environment.
    • Two of six recent games stayed below the line, including outputs of 34 and 42 yards.
  14. Game under 50.5 total points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total: 48.5 points, about two points below the live 50.5 market.
    • Confirmed forecast calls for a north wind around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph at Knoxville; that is the clearest same-day under factor.
    • Tennessee’s defense has allowed 15.5 points per game and -0.03 defensive EPA/play this season.
    • Alabama averages 44.2 points and +0.36 offensive EPA/play, while Tennessee averages 34.7 points.
  15. Game total under 48.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days

Questions

Who won Alabama vs. Tennessee?

Tennessee won 26-10 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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